Splooge - Good points about Indy's motivation...someone once said betting against P. Manning is like burning your money...but Indy in a blow out I can't see...honestly, me and a buddy (football stat whiz) capped this game at Balty -3 (on pure stats only)...public perception based on playoff seeding is badly distorting these lines.
Like your play of the week...Dallas +2.5...line should be Dallas -3...biggest statistical mismatch of the weekend.
GL the weekend
what's he have the ariz/no game at?
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Quote Originally Posted by surferdude :
Splooge - Good points about Indy's motivation...someone once said betting against P. Manning is like burning your money...but Indy in a blow out I can't see...honestly, me and a buddy (football stat whiz) capped this game at Balty -3 (on pure stats only)...public perception based on playoff seeding is badly distorting these lines.
Like your play of the week...Dallas +2.5...line should be Dallas -3...biggest statistical mismatch of the weekend.
I just locked in ARIZ +7. I loved them last week and I love them as much here. Warner can get rattled by blitz but i feel they will be able to run it enough to counter. Warner is magic & is 2nd to none in red zone where this game will be decided. Ariz will make the most of their red zone possessions. As far as Ariz being tired after a shootout game let me just say this. A game like last week takes a lot less out of a team as opposed to a more physical 3 yds and a cloud of dust type game where both teams grind it out beginning to end with 9-10 play drives so I'm not worried in the least about a let down by Arizona. Saints have been off for some 4 weeks to this point having not played well since TB. How do you go into playoffs and put it all together with this much time off since your last solid effort?? Answer is you don't.
Their last solid effort was over six weeks ago on Monday Night football against the Patriots!
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Quote Originally Posted by Splooge:
I just locked in ARIZ +7. I loved them last week and I love them as much here. Warner can get rattled by blitz but i feel they will be able to run it enough to counter. Warner is magic & is 2nd to none in red zone where this game will be decided. Ariz will make the most of their red zone possessions. As far as Ariz being tired after a shootout game let me just say this. A game like last week takes a lot less out of a team as opposed to a more physical 3 yds and a cloud of dust type game where both teams grind it out beginning to end with 9-10 play drives so I'm not worried in the least about a let down by Arizona. Saints have been off for some 4 weeks to this point having not played well since TB. How do you go into playoffs and put it all together with this much time off since your last solid effort?? Answer is you don't.
Their last solid effort was over six weeks ago on Monday Night football against the Patriots!
Their last solid effort was over six weeks ago on Monday Night football against the Patriots!
exactly! i'm kind of contradicting myself w/ this theory by playing the Colts but I have a feeling w/ those 3 intense practices this week coupled w/ the fact the huge reaction by fans, critics etc if they lost I'm thinking they will playing hell bent tonight w/ extreme urgency. As bad as their #'s are vs run they always step up in big spots vs run when it counts. What's your feeling on this one?
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Their last solid effort was over six weeks ago on Monday Night football against the Patriots!
exactly! i'm kind of contradicting myself w/ this theory by playing the Colts but I have a feeling w/ those 3 intense practices this week coupled w/ the fact the huge reaction by fans, critics etc if they lost I'm thinking they will playing hell bent tonight w/ extreme urgency. As bad as their #'s are vs run they always step up in big spots vs run when it counts. What's your feeling on this one?
Dallas is playing great right now in all facets and they can give lots of different looks offensively. I'd be all over Dallas but Minnesota is tough at home, 8-0 this season. I can't bring myself to bet against them, so this is NO PLAY. I'm with you on NYJ, their run game and defense will keep it close. 20-14 San Diego, something like that. My big play of the week is BALTIMORE. They lead the league in DVOA this season. Indy's 24th ranked run defense won't be able to stop Rice/McGahee and Baltimore will probably keep Peyton off the field as much as possible. Garcon and Collie's first playoff appearance? Maybe some jitters.
NYJ and BALT standard bets and also a small play on BALT moneyline.
AND for shits and giggles $20 parlay, ARI ML, BAL ML, NYJ +8... risk 20 to win 350. And I'll hedge it if I hit the first 2 games today....
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Dallas is playing great right now in all facets and they can give lots of different looks offensively. I'd be all over Dallas but Minnesota is tough at home, 8-0 this season. I can't bring myself to bet against them, so this is NO PLAY. I'm with you on NYJ, their run game and defense will keep it close. 20-14 San Diego, something like that. My big play of the week is BALTIMORE. They lead the league in DVOA this season. Indy's 24th ranked run defense won't be able to stop Rice/McGahee and Baltimore will probably keep Peyton off the field as much as possible. Garcon and Collie's first playoff appearance? Maybe some jitters.
NYJ and BALT standard bets and also a small play on BALT moneyline.
AND for shits and giggles $20 parlay, ARI ML, BAL ML, NYJ +8... risk 20 to win 350. And I'll hedge it if I hit the first 2 games today....
Dallas is playing great right now in all facets and they can give lots of different looks offensively. I'd be all over Dallas but Minnesota is tough at home, 8-0 this season. I can't bring myself to bet against them, so this is NO PLAY. I'm with you on NYJ, their run game and defense will keep it close. 20-14 San Diego, something like that. My big play of the week is BALTIMORE. They lead the league in DVOA this season. Indy's 24th ranked run defense won't be able to stop Rice/McGahee and Baltimore will probably keep Peyton off the field as much as possible. Garcon and Collie's first playoff appearance? Maybe some jitters.
NYJ and BALT standard bets and also a small play on BALT moneyline.
AND for shits and giggles $20 parlay, ARI ML, BAL ML, NYJ +8... risk 20 to win 350. And I'll hedge it if I hit the first 2 games today....
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Dallas is playing great right now in all facets and they can give lots of different looks offensively. I'd be all over Dallas but Minnesota is tough at home, 8-0 this season. I can't bring myself to bet against them, so this is NO PLAY. I'm with you on NYJ, their run game and defense will keep it close. 20-14 San Diego, something like that. My big play of the week is BALTIMORE. They lead the league in DVOA this season. Indy's 24th ranked run defense won't be able to stop Rice/McGahee and Baltimore will probably keep Peyton off the field as much as possible. Garcon and Collie's first playoff appearance? Maybe some jitters.
NYJ and BALT standard bets and also a small play on BALT moneyline.
AND for shits and giggles $20 parlay, ARI ML, BAL ML, NYJ +8... risk 20 to win 350. And I'll hedge it if I hit the first 2 games today....
by looking at def rush stats alone it's tough to play indy but they do step up vs balt and stop the run and have done so in big spots. They will be geared up to limit run tonight and force flacco to beat them. gl w/ your play
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by looking at def rush stats alone it's tough to play indy but they do step up vs balt and stop the run and have done so in big spots. They will be geared up to limit run tonight and force flacco to beat them. gl w/ your play
just curious why the strong lean towards SD w/ your buddy's #'s saying otherwise?
Part homer in me...part situational...., but I believe there is a potential for a SD blowout...it will be close game or a blowout...I lean toward the latter...this is the weakest game for me this weekend since I am going against the stat system....3 dogs and 1 fav.
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Quote Originally Posted by Splooge:
just curious why the strong lean towards SD w/ your buddy's #'s saying otherwise?
Part homer in me...part situational...., but I believe there is a potential for a SD blowout...it will be close game or a blowout...I lean toward the latter...this is the weakest game for me this weekend since I am going against the stat system....3 dogs and 1 fav.
Wow... home teams are dominating for certain. I'm playing against the 4 for 4 and going w/ initial strong lean. Line at 9 now, i knew there was a reason i waited so long for this one. I bought the point getting it to a nice 10 so let it fuckin ride baby for 5 dimes!!!
10 Units J E T S +10
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Wow... home teams are dominating for certain. I'm playing against the 4 for 4 and going w/ initial strong lean. Line at 9 now, i knew there was a reason i waited so long for this one. I bought the point getting it to a nice 10 so let it fuckin ride baby for 5 dimes!!!
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