Lamar Jackson

Dude isn't worth $50 million of guaranteed money, let alone $250 million.  He's never going to win a conference championship and he's never going to win a superbowl.  

He's 26 years old.  The guy isn't going to realistically play effectively into his mid 30's, just because he's prone to injury due to his style of play.  Even now, he seems to get hurt at crucial points during the season.  This trend is only going to get worse.  Week in, week out, the guy takes more of a beating than pocket passers.  All those hits add up.  He's only played 12 games in each of his last 2 seasons.

LJ isn't stupid, but he's just not good at reading defenses and making adjustments.  He's slow to go through progressions and relies too much on his running ability.  Long term, this isn't a good thing.  2 seasons ago, the Dolphins pulled a big upset over the Ravens by literally blitzing on every play.  LJ couldn't deal with it or make adjustments.  He looked like a deer in headlights for most of the game.

The NFL is a passing league.  Successful teams have a QB that can pass the ball effectively and consistently.  LJ can't do either.  Run-first QBs just aren't successful in the NFL, especially when it comes to the playoffs.  The closest is probably Russ Wilson, who did win a SB, but if you look at the stats for that game, he ran the ball 3 times for 26 yards.

Bottom line, you get LJ and you surround him with a couple of decent receivers and a decent RB and you can still expect the same results BAL got - you'll have a winning team, that might win a division title every couple of years, but you aren't going to make that run deep into the playoffs.  You aren't going to win a conference title game or a SB with him at the helm.  So why pay the guy championship money when he's not going to get you to the promised land?  If you're paying Burrow or Allen or Hurts or Mahomes or even Herbert or Lawrence, I get it.  But LJ? - in 5 seasons, he's posted a 1-3 career playoff record, and never made it past the divisional round. 

Honestly, if you are trying to win a SB in the next 3 years, would you rather have Carr or LJ?  Cousins or LJ?  Jimmy G or LJ?  Daniel Jones or LJ?  None of these guys are great, but it's not a no-brainer.  So why pay a guy 8-10 times more for similar or close to similar results?  At this point, you could make a legitimate argument that Baker Mayfield gives you almost as much potential to make a deep playoff run as LJ does. Is anyone talking about giving Baker or Carr or Cousins or Jimmy or Jones a couple of hundred million in guaranteed money?  Hell no - you'd be crazy to do that.  But LJ doesn't deserve it either.

ARI made a huge mistake overpaying for Murray.  DEN made a huge mistake overpaying for Russ.  CLE probably made a huge mistake overpaying for Watson.  Who's going to be the next team that makes a huge mistake by overpaying for LJ?

Any team giving him a fully guaranteed contract is asinine. He has been injury prone the last 2 years and missed significant amount of games. Paying him that kind of money both years and guarantee is basically saying when Lamar is 29 which is 3 years from now he will have the same athletic ability as he had 2 years ago with no injuries.  He needs his legs and athletic ability more than his arm. he is basically past his athletic Prime imo and will be a slow decline from here in out

think of Lamar as a RB.. good for 4/5 years then move on when they want the crazy extension. 

 I seriously dont think people have the ability to describe accurately the things that happen before their eyes. Didnt read it all because I didnt come across one fact entire analysis wrong.

@jtoler

 Do you think he's going to take them to a Super Bowl?Cause I gotta agree with the original poster and say,I just don't see that happening.

Lol by the time all the offseason drama has passed Lamar is still going to end up a Raven whether he plays on the franchise tag or when deal finally done.

ESPN is having a lot of fun with this  

Nice assessment.  But no need to qualify it first.  It is what it is -- and is a large reason why he cannot read defenses.  He is exciting and fun to watch when he is healthy.  But frustrating when he misses reads and does not improve.  Listen to him talk sometime.

For example:

"One result that Lamar Jackson would like to put behind him is his Wonderlic test score, which was a disappointing 13.

The Wonderlic is a 50 question test that must be completed in 12 minutes. Each question answered correctly accounts for one point. Quarterbacks average a 24 on the test and all position players average a 22."

It is the same as I said about other QBs.  Tebow for example, even.  If you have a QB that you know has some talent and you have gauged his upside on a scale per his potential contract, you have to be able to be sure you can develop him and improve his weaknesses and enhance his talents.  You have to have the coaching in place for these types of QBs.

If you have a QB that can run and throw, that is a good start.  But if you are a head coach and cannot develop these guys, or feel they cannot be developed, then you better not sign them.

If you are a head coach and feel you cannot teach Jackson, or even Tebow, to read defenses -- then do not sign them!  

If you think your QB coach cannot get the hitch out of Tebow's throwing motion -- then get another QB coach or do not sign him.

If you have decided you have seen enough and Jackson cannot be taught to read NFL defenses -- then do not sign him!  If you feel your Offensive Coordinator cannot teach him -- then get another OC, or do not sign the QB.

The problem is always how you look if the QB goes somewhere else and another QB coach or OC or HC does do this.  Then you look bad.  Do you really think the backups are good enough or a new draft pick?  Do you really trust your coaching staff to develop someone that clearly does not have Jackson's talent and experience?

I wonder about coaches that cannot improve Jackson and other QBs somewhat.  When Jackson plays, he wins; develop him!

So, now as a GM or owner you have to assess the overall situation.  Baltimore is easily a contender in that division and, for sure, as a WC contender.  Is it JUST Jackson or is it ALSO some coaching?

Then you have to factor in the injury history.  BUT IF your coaching staff can teach him to read defenses a tad better and be more of a pass first QB, that limits the injury factor somewhat.  

So, you have to question:  why has your coaching staff not done this yet, or been able to?

It is a matter of frustration more than hating, I think.  

People see the winning and the talent and potential.  But in crunch time the mistakes are amplified and there has been no improvement in these situations.  That frustrates fans.

Therefore, that coupled with injuries makes you question a large contract.

@jtoler

 The goal posts aren't moving for LJ.  He just doesn't win when it counts.  He has plenty of value, but not $250 million guaranteed value, and that was my whole point.  LJ is a guy that's going to get you 9-10 wins a year, a division title every couple of years and a decent amount of playoff appearances.  If you're happy with that, sign him, but don't be a dumbass and give him a ridiculous guaranteed contract.  If want to make deep runs and have a shot at a conference championship or a SB, he's not that guy.  

I don't think you can legitimately compare Burrow to LJ.  Burrow has played 3 seasons.  He's got a 5-2 playoff record and led his team to 2 AFC championship games and 1 SB. Knowing that, who really cares that his regular season record is 24-17-1?  LJ has played 5 seasons, going 1-3 in the playoffs, and never making it past the divisional round. Knowing that, does it really matter that his regular season record is a phenomenal 45-16? Burrow finds a way to win when it counts and makes his teammates better.  LJ hasn't done either of those.  That's why he isn't worth a huge guaranteed contract.

Huge Difference...One relies on his athletic ability and legs and the other on his Arm...No question Lamar has been a stud his 1st 5 years in the league..But he has had Injuries the last 2 years and he has done nothing in the playoffs.......Are u paying Lamar to be a drop back QB and read defenses or to be the electric elusive scrambler/runner that defenses have to account for that makes his passing game better than it actually is? Like I said giving him a long term contract with crazy guarantee's is basically saying the Ravens believe he can retain his health and athletic ability running the ball like he has in his 1st 5 years to his next 4-5 years...All the hits/running takes its toll...He should just accept a franchise tag and bet on himself..Kirk Cousins did it......He is holding out for the fully guaranteed money because he knows his athletic ability and injuries are a major concern going forward unlike most other franchise QB's...

Lamar should just hire an agent already....Dude tried to be his own agent and will end up costing him Big Big money....

And that is the bias I was referring to, not one objective comment. People play dumb when it benefits them, but if they were defending something then their presentation looks totally different. No context in any of you guys' comments zero. All I have to say is 45-16 through first 66 and it shuts everything up. Add in basically no help and despite that still won an mvp award and led league in passing tds, the guy who can't throw and is a running back, go figure. If being objective no qb deserves more than Jackson but Mahomes....maybe. Maybe because Mahomes has always had people to throw to. Action Jack has no chase, no higgins, no diggs, no mixon, no keenan allen, no mike williams, nothing. No davante adams, no hopkins, nothing. No #1 rated defense the last 2 years, nothing. 

@jtoler

 45-16 regular season means nothing unless u won something...He was not available for the Raven in the playoffs this season....Also durability is availability..U see Maholmes tough it out with his sprained ankle during playoffs?? 

Ravens clearly don't see him as the guy or they woulda handed him the money...

I think they realize he is a limited passer which limits their offense...and he is bound to get injured just like all other rushing QBs...therefore making them hesitant to hand him a huge contract

The huge contract also handicaps the team as it limits spending at other positions 

Are there any owners and GMs out there that only care about regular season wins?  Which fan base do you think is happier - the 24-17-1 Burrow Bengals with 2 AFC Championship appearances and a SB appearance, or the 45-16 LJ Ravens who've gone 1-3 in the playoffs and haven't made it past the divisional round?

I agree, LJ hasn't had great pieces around him.  Maybe he didn't get coached up like he should have.  Maybe the play calling has been a little suspect.  But none of that changes the fact that he's a running QB in a passing league.  None of that changes the fact that he's prone to injury due to his playing style.  None of that changes the fact that he hasn't been able to win the big game when it counts.  He's just not worth $250 million in guaranteed money, or anything close to that.  And any team that gives him that kind of contract is just shooting themselves in the foot.

@jtoler

1st of all..If Lamar had an agent..He would have gotten an extension in 2021 and probably could have gotten 5 years..140 Million with 80- $100+ million guaranteed like Dak got.....and then would coming up with probably another extension after this season if had a great season..The guy bet on himself as an agent to save money and its costing him.. Not he wants a fully guaranteed contract... coming off injury seasons....

Case Closed

The Ravens fans!    That is not how it works.  I get your point and it is valid to most folks that think only winning championships is the main thing.  But, alas, that is not what determines fans's enthusiasm a lot of times.

For example:  Ravens are 3rd at 6.98 on Fan Happiness Index.  Bengals are 10th at 6.14.  

Think about how long the Bengals have been losers.  Winning does help -- but all studies show it is overrated when determining fans's happiness. 

@Raiders22

 I think you'd be hard pressed to find any CIN fans that would gladly give up those 2 deep playoff runs if only they could've won more regular season games.  On the flip side, I think most BAL fans would gladly trade a bunch of regular season wins for a couple of deep playoff runs and a SB appearance.

@bluecompass

 No doubt about it.  

I am just saying it is amazing how happy some fans are without a winning team.  Why would the Saints be first in fan happiness?  Why would Green Bay not be way higher?  It is the only thing they have it town like that and are usually decent.  
If they beat the Steelers and Browns — Ravens fans will overlook a lot else.  
As long as Jackson wins and provides some highlights along the way — playoff wins or championships would be icing. 
I am not even sure they would rather have a SB loss like the Bengals if they hadn’t beaten the Steelers along the way.  A SB win — sure.  

@bluecompass

Brilliant writeup completely agree. LJ posted a lot of wins in the regular seasons but unless you are satisfied as a franchise and fanbase with participation trophies, it means zip in the big picture. 

Isn't winning the gold the whole point??? Otherwise it is the equivalent of being what soap operas are to women. 

"If winning isn't everything, then why do they keep score?" ~Vince Lombardi