K'S NFL SUNDAY 9/20

YTD ATS: 10-5-2 (67%), +8.3 UNITS

LOCKED IN

BROWNS +3 (EV) ... 2 UNITS

Denver is 2-17 ATS at home when favored by -2 or more the last three seasons.  Cleveland defense is underrated in my opinion and I think the loss to Minny last week left a bad taste in their mouths.  Denver won on a fluke play with no time left after netting just 6 points against Cincy's D for 95% of the game.  Big revenge game for CLE from last season's Thursday night game, where they held a 10 pt fourth qtr lead and then watched Cutler go banana's mounting a fierce comeback.  With no Cutler this time, I like the Brownies to possibly get a SU win.

EAGLES PK ... 2 UNITS

Everyone is jumping on the Saints here as a pick after Brees throws for 6 TDs against one of the worst teams in football and McNabb being hurt.  But Reid has shown time and time again that he can win with McNabb or without him.  Look at the past few seasons and what he's down with the likes of Detmer, Feeley and Garcia.  Saints are an unimpressive 6-10 on the road the past 2 seasons with wins against Det, KC, Seattle, SF, Carolina, and Atl (pre-Matt Ryan).  Maybe one impressive win out of those six.  Saints are 1-7 ATS their last 8 outings in Philly and haven't won SU there since 1991.

PANTHERS +6 ... 3 UNITS 

Another spot where I like going against the grain... will Delhomme be better this week?  Probably... but the perception is a guy responsible for 11 turnovers in 7 qtrs of football is fadable.  Carolina is not a bad defensive team and I don't think you can blame them for the short field situations that their offensive turnovers put them in.  In fact, if you wipe out the punt return TD and the INT's, you take 24 points off the board.  I like Carolina's running game and I think they use that to keep this game close.  Atlanta didn't play great against Miami... 5 three-and-outs, and 4 other drives that went 8 plays or less out of 11 total drives.

RAMS/REDSKINS UNDER 37 (-120) ... 1 UNIT

Tough to say who's gonna score... pretty ugly matchup.  With the Redskins spotting 10, oddsmakers feel like STL will only put up 10 pts.  With that being said, I can't imagine WAS putting up 27 points.  Remember Spagnuolo has coached against the 'Skins when he was with the Giants and Eagles so theres a familiarity there.

CARDINALS/JAGS OVER 42 (-120) ... 1 UNIT

Over is 9-2 since 2005 when the Cards play out East.