Kc and Why

Round 2 of the playoffs - let's look at some numbers:

         Jax       15 10 11 28 10 25

-9.5    Kc       20  1   7  19  3  16

Kc opens up at 9.5 currently around 9 - 8.5  .   Jax is better in rushing off at 15 vs 20; Kc is better in passing off 1 vs 10; Kc is better in def rushing at 7 vs 11; def passing at 19 vs 28; Kc is better in sagarin rank 3 vs 10 and schedule strength at 16 vs 25.   

Kc is better in all categories except rushing off. You would think whoever is dominant in these categories is who you would take.  I wish it was that easy it's not.   When you look at history and find similar scenarios and the opening line is 9.5 for the home team - my data says take Kc - they should get the cover.  I'm on Kc -9 - good luck all.  

Like your analysis overall, but this is definitely where you went off the rails. Sagarin is lazy, washed up, and his power rankings and SOS rankings should be ignored by EVERYBODY who is trying to handicap sports. I've looked deeply into his numbers, and they are NOT CLOSE!

The specific problem with his SOS rankings is that one of his primary factors in determining those ranks is based on something that has ZERO relevance to this season:  for some absolutely inexplicable reason (I assume it is pure laziness)... he factors in each teams ranking in their division from the previous year.

Let me explain this... the Chiefs finished first in their division last year, so they get what the NFL deems a "First place schedule." This means they play against all teams that were also first place in their own conference, as well as 2 of the first place teams from the opposing conference.  So at the start of the season, Sagarin has this already factored into their SOS, because it allows him to add data early on, where very little data is otherwise available.

Here's the problem:  the teams that finished in 1st place last year in their divisions include the Rams, the Packers, the Buccs, and the Titans... 3 teams that rate somewhere between below average and absolutely terrible. Meanwhile, some of the 3rd and 4th place teams made a huge leap this year. Teams with 3rd place schedules had to play against teams like the 49ers, Dolphins, Chargers and Redskins, while teams with 4th place schedules had to play against teams like the Ravens, Jags, Lions, Giants and Seahawks.

To put it simply... teams that had a 3rd or 4th place schedule this year, in most cases, had a MUCH more brutal schedule than the first place teams. Miami had a 3rd place schedule, but had easily the most difficult schedule this season, IF it is NOT based on what happened LAST YEAR! Since SOS is a major factor in his power rankings, that means both the SOS and PR are WORTHLESS!

Sagarin's ratings are absolute TRASH!  Do not ever use them... and I say this as someone who used to respect what he does.  You want SOS rankings... come to me!

Like I said... enjoyed the rest of your analysis. Just wanted to give some insight into why Sagarin's SOS rankings are so far off the mark.

GL on the play!

@TheBuddah

Pedal to the metal time for the Chiefs. 

@TheBuddah

@Duderonomy

 There are those that might share the same advice with you...  Just like your comment about Saragain, some believe the same way about your handicapping approach.  It is outdated and you are wasting your time with it.  The OP will be just as accurate on his picks with his system of approach as you will be with your system approach.  Quite frankly you are both taking a fixed win % approach, and it will never be profitable.  Good week  bad week, all depends on the rhythm of the games.   
If they want your pattern, they will have it, and bet no good.

In other words your destiny is already determined before you even bet.  This is because what you do is Patternable.  
I am sure you will catch one of my tapes on this topic, at somepoint.


GL to ya players, hope the pattern falls your way today!

@Duderonomy

 Who do like today?

What kind of dressing does that salad come with?

@LuckyBros

Nothing in particular... strongest feeling is Dallas, but not that strong. Can see my picks and reasons here:

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/nfl-divisional-playoffs-103709338

@Buffalobob89074

 Back at ya 

@Mangowoman

 Back at ya

@Duderonomy

 First off - I appreciate you having an opinion and explaining your rationale - nothing personal - just an opinion and rationale - that's awesome.   I found if you just use sagarins rank and schedule strength by itself - it's definitely not the way you want to cap games - in my opinion.   However, I need the rank and the schedule for my methodology of capping - I like it and it works for me.    I can't argue if there is something better out there  i should use but the data i used historically is with sagarins numbers so switching up would not give me the historical perspective i'm looking for so me and sagarin are stuck with each other and i'm fine with it.    BOL to you today. 

@yknot

 Interesting comments - i guess i do have a methodology of how i go about collecting and analyzing the data - it is constant process improvement.   Not sure if that's considered to be "patternable".   I've had a positive year so far i'll continue doing what i do whether it's patternable or not.      Either way BOL to ya. 

I like it 

bol 

@Duderonomy

 Hey brother, with all due respect. If this is truly how you feel. Just play JaX with the points.

The Buddah has been doing this long enough for others to see that it’s a winning strategy. Personally myself, I like to read his material and I use my judgment on wether to follow the play or fade it. This is why many good cappers on covers don’t even want to post anymore. No need for you to write a book on your personal thoughts on his system. Just start your own thread on why you think the sagarin system is a bad winning strategy. Smh. 

@Paal

 Back at ya 

@cadman04

 Thanks for your support bud.   I look at life as a choice and a consequence - thus the key to life is understanding as it helps you make the right choice.   Hopefully I understand and have made the right choice - we shall see.    Back at ya and wish you well on your choice.   

GL @TheBuddah

It’s the Year of the Rabbit: Here’s to Health and Prosperity this Lunar New Year.

@TheBuddah

 No doubt. Good luck man. Don’t know if you recall last week. I asked you about if you can apply safarin system to the bengals vs ravens game. You responded with the number being 6.5 and the line was up to 8.5 at that point. So I took your advice and bought it down to 7 lol and resulted in a push. So I dodged a bullet and thanks again!!

@Macwestie1

 Back at ya Mac .

@cadman04

 No problem - glad you got your push.    Once lines veer away from the opening line (i use madduxsports.com for lines) - you definitely want to be careful.   I hate buying points - price is too high.   That's why i thought taking a teaser was a better option for me in that situation - worked out well.