I hear what you keep saying about his knee injury affecting his throws.
I am not sure how much I buy into that. I have had issues with his mechanics since day one. He has never had the strongest arm or greatest throwing mechanics at all.
But there may be something to it. But he was never a Rodgers-type throwing the ball before.
You can sort the QBR any way you want. With a lead, behind one score — or just the whole 4th Q for the whole season. You can do all sorts of things with it. I think when I originally did it a guy was asking about Cousins or someone else in late-game one-score games. That’s how Jimmy G got into it.
Not saying he is Brady or Wilson in that situation — just saying he is way better than folks think he is in those situations.
Absolutely, they overreached on Lance — at this point. But, who knows? Maybe Lance really does turn out to be great. He does have some good tools.
SF has a past history of having gotten lucky enough to have more than one good QB at a time on their roster — when other teams cannot even find one decent QB.
I am rooting for Lance. I like a good story about a guy from a small school, etc.
It is just hard to see it. But maybe they see it in practice every day and think they are ready to make a move.
@StumpTownStu
“Like I said, if Jimmy G was a top 15 QB, why doesn't anybody want him. Why did the Browns sign Watson. Why aren't the Texans interested? Why didn't the Seahawks target him as a one/two year bridge QB? Pittsburgh. Denver. Dettoit. Why did Kyle gamble his career on an unproven FCS QB? It isn't simply questions about his health, as it relates to his latest injury. There are major questions surrounding both his throwing strength AND accuracy.”
Of course he is injury-prone. That would put a lot of teams off. But if he is healthy and given a clean bill — I am sure he will be picked up.
I am not saying a top 15 athletic QB. But if you look just at efficiency stats for a QB or offense AND winning stats AND situational stats when the game is on the line — you are not going to list 15 better QBs.
But the health is an issue. And of course, you have to decide if you want to go with a weaker-armed QB that is injury prone just for a chance to win a game or two more and maybe make the playoffs. But if you have a decent backup ready to go or developing then you would be fine to take a chance on Jimmy G.
But if you are going to bring in a young untested guy that was not all that heralded anyway — you are asking for trouble. NOW you have to let Jimmy G no matter what. Otherwise, you will have a dysfunctional team.
That is all my point is: they handled this very, very poorly. They are about to handle the Samuel thing poorly too. But we shall see.
Let’s look at the QBs with at least 200 attempts last year and where Jimmy G ranks on the efficiency stats lists.
6th in catcheable %
13th on target %
6th comp %
2nd in Y/A right behind Burrow and ahead of Stafford
18th in sack %
5th least pressure % behind Brady, Big Ben, Stafford and Rodgers
21st in avg throw depth behind Hebert but ahead of Rodgers and Mahomes
RTG 9th
IQR 13th
PE/Play 18th
PAA/Play 18th
Expected Points Added 7th
% positive plays 2nd begins Mahomes
PAR 17th
WAR 17th
Boom % 2nd behind Stafford
Bust % 8th
And the one I like the most to get an overall efficiency judgement if you have to use just one stat:
ANY/A he was 6th!! Look who he was behind: Rodgers, Burrow, Brady, Cousins, And Stafford!!
No way statistically or efficiency rated he cannot be a top 15 QB.
Athletically, no he is not.
But I want my team to win and if I want to bet, I want a ATS QB.
But to the coaches and GM, maybe the injury and lack of athleticism overrides the value to the team he adds when he is available to them.
Hopefully, I used enough eff stats to make my case.
Besides the fact that he simply just wins.
I get where you are coming from — he is not Rodgers, athletically.
I get where the team is coming from. They want a stronger arm, mobility and health.
I just think they are getting rid of a winner without a known backup yet. At a time when they are an elite team with him.
Then let's not use ratio. Let's just say that he throws too many interceptions.
@Raiders22
You keep bringing up athleticism. I don't need an overly athletic QB. My knock on Jimmy I simply that he has poor throwing mechanics which cause him to throw far too many touchdowns. I used ration simply to excuse guys whose usage rate and role in an offense cause them to be more prone to interceptions a la Stafford. Most of Jimmy G's interceptions come from poor throwing mechanics and lack of arm strength. And while he has never had a howitzer arm, I believe his lack of arm strength are rooted in hiscpoor throwing mechanics. I attribute to his knee simply because I first noticed it in his return season. And I became obsessed with his throwing mechanics to the point of watching every throw in slo-mo. And I said, "Ok, he's not planting on that leg. He's timid. Then going into Super Bowl week I saw a local interview where someone asked him about still wearing a brace and he basically said, I'm paraphrasing, "It's something I'm always aware off, and will probably always be a little timid about. I'll probably always wear a brace."
So let's be clear, ai wouldn't have targeted Trey Lance and gave up what they did to acquire him. I would've went into the season with Jimmy G as my guy and waited for a better QB class to draft my franchise QB. However, understanding Kyle's offensive philosophy, I understand the sense of urgency. They're seeing this guy every day. Evaluating him. They knew.
He probably didn't have enough snaps to be ranked but in very limited action, Trey Lance had a higher ANY/A than Jimmy G. Higher TD%. Lower Int%.
I just don't think he is very good. He had that 5 game run that was magical when he landed in SF to end the season. Threw for 300 a game, went 5-0, and it was like, "Kyle has found his QB." He threw 7 TDs and 5 picks in that stretch. That is horrendous. Other than that, he has had the two injury marred seasons. In those seasons, in 9 starts he went 4-5. 1800 yards. 12 TDs, 8 ints. In his two "good years" he threw 47 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. That's not elite.
Okay. But not necessarily by total numbers. For example last year Stafford, Herbert, Allen, Burrow, Carr, Tannehill, Mahomes, Jackson, Brady, and Ryan all threw as many, or more than he did.
Now you can use the INT% here — then you would have a bigger case for sticking with INTs as your main reason for not seeing that he is a top-15 efficient QB.
That is always the issue when you pick a stat that does not really show true efficiency. You have to isolate each one and see if it was a drive killer, if it ended a half/game, was just as good as a punt, or was it a missed catch and WR tipped it up, etc. Much more to it.
But even when you look at Adj INT he does not do that well.
So, I will grant that he ‘throws too many INTs’. But a lot of efficient QBs do. Nearly, all of the ones we would normally think of as good, did last year — except Rodgers.
That is why I would not rely too much on INTs to determine how effective a QB is in totality.
For example, he obviously is not doing it as much late in games or in crunch time situations — or his efficiency would not be so good at those times. Maybe he is doing it more at less critical times.
38 INTs in 63 games with 47 started is not good. A career 2.7% INT rate is not good.
About the same as Rivers had and slightly better than Eli had. Luck was 2.5%. Brees 2.3%.
So, yes, I can agree he throws too many INTs. I never claimed he was Rodgers or Brady-like safe with the ball.
I just contend he is a top-15 efficient QB in the league. If he can improve in his INTs then he will be even more firmly entrenched in the top 15.
Yes. That is what they want. The whole point in getting Lance is that he is more athletic and they can do more with him. The league has gone that way a lot more with the offenses nowadays. Very rare to see a Brady-type now.
Correct. I have always said his mechanics are bad. He is not Rodgers. But I saw this before the knee injury. This has always been a knock on him. Not all of his INTs are due to bad mechanics or lack of arm strength. A lot of them are bone-headed throws. He still will make the incorrect read that prevents him from being a top 5-10 QB.
But he does plenty enough to be in the top 15.
I get your point about waiting for a better class. But when and how long? There is no class with an Andrew Luck on the horizon. There is not even a Burrow coming up. What are they gonna do — take a chance on a Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson? They did that. Now they will roll the dice.
I think they would have been far, far better served by trading for a known quantity! That was the absolute obvious choice to do.
You have a team to go to the Super Bowl now. You don’t want to build for 3-5 years down the road.
Now they have ‘forced’ themselves into a very risky spot.
Think about it they could have gotten Ryan. But think about this — everyone knew Brady wanted to play there.
Nope. This was handled very poorly and could very well disintegrate this team’s potential.
On Shanahan:
Kyle record is 39-42
Jimmy G record 31-14
Guess Kyle is 8-28 without Jimmy G?
It looks to me, instead of finding a QB for his offense — he should be changing his offense to match Jimmy G.
But that is not too telling a stat yet. Because at one point they had the wagon hitched to Jimmy G. But it will be interesting to see if he can win at the same rate with his ‘QB’ that he was winning without his ‘QB’.
Everyone suspected he wanted Cousins anyway. So who knows?
@Raiders22
We both agree that Lance was a reach, and that it would've been better to just see what Jimmy could give him. With that said, understanding Kyle's offense, I understand why he would go after a stronger arm, more athletic QB. Jimmy G would be perfect in New England's Erhardt-Perkins offense, except for, wait for it, he turns the ball over too much. He fits that offense though. Who runs that besides New England? They drafted Mac Jones. He also fits that offense perfectly. You bring up guys like Brady and say, "Well, he threw just as many interceptions," but Brady threw for more than twice as many touchdowns and 1400 more yards. Yeah, Jimmy started two less games but that doesn't account for a discrepancy that large. Jimmy puts up game manager stats except that he turns the ball over far to often to be a game manager. You bring up Tannehill? Tannehill is no quarterback to put up as a comparison for a good quarterback. Justin Herbert? Don't bring up the Beast of the Beaver State, my adopted home. I've following that kid since he was a freshman, in high school. He threw more ints but also threw for like 40 TDs and 5,000 yards. Jimmy couldn't carry his jock strap.
Absolutely. When you look at the chart, this quote about it stands out:
“No one chart describes the 49er’s offense better than this one. Shanahan hammered Garoppolo’s strength all season long despite every defense trying to stop it. Pretty nuts.”
But to me it only helps prove how effective he is and still a top winner. Despite all of us knowing all of this about him. He is still very effective and wins. There have been a lot of QBs without tremendous arms. They have to be effective to even stay in the league.
Ok. Sure. So we all agree that Jimmy G is a better QB than Nick Mullens and CJ freaking Beathard.
Are you serious? And not to knock Beathard. He won me one of my biggest wagers ever at Iowa. He was 2-10 for Shan. Nick Mullens was 5-11. That's 7-22 right there. Trey was 1-1. We're at 8-23. Not sure where the other 5 losses came from but yeah, we all agree that Jimmy G is better than Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard. What a yard stick.
The issue is that his ceiling is so high. He has a lot of potential. It just would have been nicer ignored he had done it longer at the college level. It would also have been nicer if he could have had a couple of years to develop.
But he looks to have the same problem most QBs with cannons have at a young age — they try to force the ball. Favre, Stafford — so many do.
But my problem is are they making the switch at the wrong time? Unless they feel they have absolutely peaked with JG. Or they are tired of him being injured so much.
Sure. Just pointing out that the number of INTs may or may not matter when you look at the whole season. Like I pointed out in several of the earlier statements INTs are just too isolated an event to use as a great efficiency tool.
Yes. As I have mentioned before. I told my buddy from SD before the season there was great value on Herbert for MVP before the season started. Then those odds fell real quick once the season started. I like him a lot! But he still has to do it for a few more years consistently. But he will be elite.
I only mentioned the others to point out a lot of his contemporaries that start and are perceived as more effective throw INTs as well. But if you look at when they do it — you will notice even AR can throw them at the most awful time. Then some that some QBs throw do not even matter in that particular game.
@Raiders22
Change his offense to fit Jimmy G. That's the worst take I have ever heard. Kyle's one strength as a coach is that he runs his own variation of his dad's offense, an offense he grew up around. He's not a guy that is going to blow it up for Jimmy G.
Plus, like I have said, the Erhartd-Perkins offense is the only offense that fits Jimmy G, and I'm not even sure if that even fits Jimmy G anymore. Maybe he can go be Mac Jones' back up
Haha!! Yeah. I dunno if those are 100% up to date stats.
But you have to be able to win at a better rate than that with a backup. They have a good — almost great — team! A lot of NFL steaks have a dropoff when their starter goes down. But not that drastic!
Then that same team gonna try all they can do to get rid of JG — because he is not that good? Well if that’s the case he shouldn’t be that much better than your backups? Except apparently he is WAY better than they are! 
He gonna be just like his dad and not win a SB until he gets blessed with an alltime great RB or defense. Haha!! Never liked his dad when he left us. Haha!! Plus I was always rooting for Elway to not get a SB.
I’m kidding. He is for sure a good football mind. I’m just simply pointing out that without JG — he better figure it out quick!
Those guys are asked too do so much more in their offensive systems, put up more yards and throw more TDs. In some cases literally twice as many TDs.
We're getting into the weeds a bit on this discussion. We both agree that the Niners reached on Trey Lance and probably should've just saw what Jimmy G could give them, especially given the recent weak QB classes. My point is that while I don't agree with the move, I understand. I spent an entire season analyzing every all of Jimmy G's throws. Every single throw. I became obsessed. This was the season they went to the Super Bowl. I was literally watching throws in slo-mo. And I came to the conclusion that he sucked. And when the Niners we're killing it, and all my Inner friend buddies were all poking their chests out, I just kept repeating, "You guys will only go as far as those wounded ducks he throws will take you." They got to the NFC championship. He got them there. He was serviceable. Not good but serviceable. They then won the NFC championship by running the ball on essentially every play. Took him completely out of the game plan. Then they lost in the SB. He got them to the NFC championship last season. He deserves credit, granted, but I also watched just about every Miner game last year. I wasn't analyzing throws in slo-mo or anything but that entire team was balling out. Jimmy wasn't the unquestioned driving force behind there success like a Brady, Rodgers, etc. He was simply just a cog in the wheel. Decent yardage. 12 picks against 20 touchdowns. Those aren't too 15 QB numbers.
To me bottom line: to say Jimmy G is not a top 15 QB — someone could easily list 15 more efficient and/or winners than him; they can’t.
So, to me the 49ers have to say they are willing to move on from a top half QB and hope Lance can develop into a top QB. Maybe he can.
But in the meantime they have to hope the rest of their team stays intact and can make up for the lapses a rookie QB will show.
It is not like they are moving from Montana to Young and then Garcia or something like that.
I mean, those are especially bad back ups. To say he is much better that Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard is not saying much for Jimmy G.p
He had a great defense, and a great tandem of backs. Pretty damn good offensive line. Jimmy G was the weak link. This is why he overreached on Trey Lance.
@StumpTownStu
I agree he has not put up huge numbers. I never claimed that. I am saying he is behind only a couple of elites at winning %. That is not luck after that many games. Sure, he gets hurt a lot. But when he is healthy he wins.
He is also in the top half or even better in efficiency. All the advanced stats that measure this show it.
So, while he is not doing what Jackson can do with his legs or Rodgers with his arm — he does an awful lot with what he has.
You are right. We wandered in the weeds somewhat.
It is the same with the Cousin’s discussion. People do not realize how good some QBs really are.
Because they are always wanting the next Brady, Rodgers, Manning, etc.
But teams they constantly keep drafting the next big QB seem to never hit.
Teams can build around these guys and win. Fans just want the next bigtime QB.
Very, very few QBs get to the SB and so few even win it.
I mean folks had already given Mahomes 5-6 — and he may not ever make it back again. Etc. Etc.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
