Jeff's Super Bowl Totals Play with write up

3 UNIT PLAY

NY Giants/ New England Under 53: I know what kind of offenses these teams have, but these teams same teams played earlier in the year and there were just 44 points scored in that one. In fact if we look back at the 8 meetings between these teams, dating back to 1987, we will find that just one of those games put up more than 50 points. The last time these teams met in the Super Bowl both teams also had solid offenses, but just 31 points and 612 totals yards were put up in that one. The Giant defense has been solid down the stretch as they have allowed just 13.4 ppg and 318.8 ypg in their last 5 games. The Giants have allowed 255.1 ypg through the air on the year, which is 29th in the league, but in the Playoffs they have allowed just 200.7 ypg. Earlier in the year the Giants had a lot of defensive injuries and it really had them getting off to a slow start, but this unit is the healthiest it has been all year and they should continue to play well in this one. Defense has not been the strength of this New England team this year as they ranked second to last in passing defense (293 .7 ypg allowed) and 31st in total defense (411.1 ypg). Despite the weak overall defensive numbers, the Pats are still allowing just 21.4 ppg, which is 15th in the league. Now i have talked about yards per point being a very effective tool in football handicapping as it is the one stat that shows exactly what a team does with the ball. The Pats have a defensive YPP of 19.4 and that is second in the league behind San Francisco. This is a bend but don't break defense that knows hows to tighten it up the closer to the redzone they get. On offense we know that the Giants can throw the ball all over the field, but that is not really the way to beat the Pats. you need to run the ball to keep Brady and company off the field and now that the giant run game has been very good down the stretch, they feel they can pound away in this one vs a Patroit's defense that has allowed 117.1 ypg on the ground overall and 122ypg in their last 3 games. a lot of running by the Giants will help shorten the game and keep that clock running. The Patriots will also need to run the ball so as they look to keep the solid giants pass rush honest and that could work on the clock as well. I know full well that these teams have the ability to put up a ton of points, but history has shown that when these teams meet a low scoring game has prevailed more often than not and while i do not see just 31 points beig scored like the last time, I do see a game in the mid to upper 40's.   

BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE