Posted:
#251
they changed sh*t to garbage in my last post. i wasn't being sarcastic.
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Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share
Posted:
#260
Plays for week the program likes dogs interesting...
Picks...
SD+7
Minn+3
Carolina+3
Dallas+3
Arizona+10 (normally not touching double digit spread but the defense numbers favor Arizona...hope they can keep it close with defense)
numbers were all close on these matchups except Arizona...when numbers are close ill take the dogs...
Picks...
SD+7
Minn+3
Carolina+3
Dallas+3
Arizona+10 (normally not touching double digit spread but the defense numbers favor Arizona...hope they can keep it close with defense)
numbers were all close on these matchups except Arizona...when numbers are close ill take the dogs...
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Posted:
#263
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
Ive created a program last year that records every play on every team on a weekly basis...the numbers are then adjusted to the league average and calculated to give a percentage of who is playing well recently, rather than the overall season....
pretty basic right? anybody can watch football and see whos hot and whos not currently....but, the program also records every defensive play...fumbles, interceptions, sacks, defensive scores etc....for example the highest percentage defense my program ranked the bears last week at -32%. If u watched the bears last week they scored alot on defense. The program recorded all the defensive plays and calculated it to -32% which was the highest of all the defensive teams last week... The Negative % on defense is a good thing and on offense obviously u want a positive %
Based off the program we can tell its recording every play accurately on defense as well as offense but this is where i place wagers with more confidence....the calculations on offense is adjusted based of strength of the opponent...
For example chicago had a high defense percentage at -32% cuz of their performance last week but their offense percentage against Houston was -14%...again negative % is good for defense but offense u want positive %.
So looking at the bears and houston game chicago's yea their defense is stellar with the numbers but their offense at -14% against Houston is horrible...in contrast to houstons offense calculated at 5% so givin those numbers i would have wagered on Houston which they covered tonight...
My monday night numbers have calculated Pitt offense at 7% vs KC at -29% which ill be wagering on Pitt -12.5
Not claiming this program is undefeated use money management
Ive created a program last year that records every play on every team on a weekly basis...the numbers are then adjusted to the league average and calculated to give a percentage of who is playing well recently, rather than the overall season....
pretty basic right? anybody can watch football and see whos hot and whos not currently....but, the program also records every defensive play...fumbles, interceptions, sacks, defensive scores etc....for example the highest percentage defense my program ranked the bears last week at -32%. If u watched the bears last week they scored alot on defense. The program recorded all the defensive plays and calculated it to -32% which was the highest of all the defensive teams last week... The Negative % on defense is a good thing and on offense obviously u want a positive %
Based off the program we can tell its recording every play accurately on defense as well as offense but this is where i place wagers with more confidence....the calculations on offense is adjusted based of strength of the opponent...
For example chicago had a high defense percentage at -32% cuz of their performance last week but their offense percentage against Houston was -14%...again negative % is good for defense but offense u want positive %.
So looking at the bears and houston game chicago's yea their defense is stellar with the numbers but their offense at -14% against Houston is horrible...in contrast to houstons offense calculated at 5% so givin those numbers i would have wagered on Houston which they covered tonight...
My monday night numbers have calculated Pitt offense at 7% vs KC at -29% which ill be wagering on Pitt -12.5
Not claiming this program is undefeated use money management
im gonna be short on this one... bet underdog teams all the time u have highest chance to win that taking the favorite how sound that every sunday i saw at least 2 dogs win and the rest is all under score and underdog taking the lead... thats my concept and its wort it... giant lost, cowboy won but didn't cover, bears lost, even detroit that was totally favorite lost in the last 14 seconds.... check every sundays since week 1 u will see how close to reality i am...everyone scared to choose the unfavorite team... thats is about all human mentality..... we all want to go with the winner
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Posted:
#264
I agree with you! Thanks for pointing out my first post as in if I picked double digits spread dogs according to the program I would have covered all except 1 game which is good numbers in the long run...my first post Pitt did not cover...
Ran the numbers and of course Denver better numbers but suprised Palmers numbers aren't that bad on third down? It's just he throws Interceptions which is tough to win but also have decent numbers in the running game for raiders...if Palmer can convert 3rd downs and the running game is decent ill take the points....
Pick Raiders +10.5
Ran the numbers and of course Denver better numbers but suprised Palmers numbers aren't that bad on third down? It's just he throws Interceptions which is tough to win but also have decent numbers in the running game for raiders...if Palmer can convert 3rd downs and the running game is decent ill take the points....
Pick Raiders +10.5
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Posted:
#265
we are agree on that one but maybe i guess probably gonna be outscoring because most of the ppl are looking to hit the over ....all you read in forums is manning and manning....home is home.... raiders have loyal fans...... when the incident happened in kansa city i thought in bet in the jaguars.... at the end I didn't touch it because i say to my mind with this all in the media.... it gonna be like the end of a good hollywood movie.... what happened after chief did an impressive game.... even over the wager....
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Posted:
#269
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
All one unit each and a small parlay forgot to add NE-3
Final picks...
SD+7
Minn+3
Carolina+3
Dallas+3
Arizona+10
NE-3
So one favorite Monday nite hopeing I can hedge if Sunday plays out
All one unit each and a small parlay forgot to add NE-3
Final picks...
SD+7
Minn+3
Carolina+3
Dallas+3
Arizona+10
NE-3
So one favorite Monday nite hopeing I can hedge if Sunday plays out
Interesting results. Dogs covered about 56% so far this season. The percentage should go to 50% eventually. So picking all dogs seems to be a little bit risky. (although more dogs covered last week).
BTW, I don't understand why you have ARI and NE in your parlay. I don't see any significant line-changes so that you can hedge.
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Posted:
#271
Quote Originally Posted by GMTFAN:
Interesting results. Dogs covered about 56% so far this season. The percentage should go to 50% eventually. So picking all dogs seems to be a little bit risky. (although more dogs covered last week).
BTW, I don't understand why you have ARI and NE in your parlay. I don't see any significant line-changes so that you can hedge.
Playing all 1unit each which hopefully get a profit if at least 2 games don't play out...as far as the parlay I rarely do parlays but its the end of the season and I felt like playing a little lottery for fun cuz the regular season is coming to an end soon...what I meant by hedging is if all the Sundays games hit then I can hedge Monday and take Houston to gaurantee a payout but I know it's a longshot 
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Posted:
#273
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
if all the Sundays games hit then I can hedge Monday and take Houston to gaurantee a payout but I know it's a longshot
If you have planned this way, you have made a bad move. You will win more if you do not include the last leg to the parlay (and don't need to hedge).
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Posted:
#275
For what it's worth....last week the proggy I use predicted 3 games and all 3 were correct. This week it's predicting the bengals to beat the cowboys, or at least cover....plus the cowboys off field problems are yet another story....the DUI plus the death of that Cboys player could be a factor as well. Anyway, here's the results, and I'm picking the bengals on that one game:
07/12/2012,13:00(GMT-5),Cincinnati Bengals,Dallas Cowboys,NFL,1.90 / -111,Cincinnati Bengals -3
07/12/2012,13:00(GMT-5),Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Philadelphia Eagles,NFL,1.90 / -111,Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
07/12/2012,16:25(GMT-5),New York Giants,New Orleans Saints,NFL,1.92 / -108,New York Giants -4.5
GLTA!!
07/12/2012,13:00(GMT-5),Cincinnati Bengals,Dallas Cowboys,NFL,1.90 / -111,Cincinnati Bengals -3
07/12/2012,13:00(GMT-5),Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Philadelphia Eagles,NFL,1.90 / -111,Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
07/12/2012,16:25(GMT-5),New York Giants,New Orleans Saints,NFL,1.92 / -108,New York Giants -4.5
GLTA!!
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