Posted:
#151
Im riding with you then.. Looks like you've been on point with your picks.. My first time following you
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Interesting take on how to bet NFL
Posted:
#158
Was waiting for that one moose this season like the lions last year. 
Knew it was gonna happen when al michaels and Collins started talking about what I posted earlier about the colts turnaround...
Glad it was a push instead of a lose. $1k for the week sitting at $9k looking to be on a good profitable season six weeks into the season....
Knew it was gonna happen when al michaels and Collins started talking about what I posted earlier about the colts turnaround... Glad it was a push instead of a lose. $1k for the week sitting at $9k looking to be on a good profitable season six weeks into the season....
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Posted:
#159
Quote Originally Posted by Onigen:
so you think Colts have a shot for the superbowl th
My theory was looking promising till the last 3 minutes of the game....it was almost like the 2 owners in the Texans booth made the call...we spent 70 million you better make tonight happen NFL
so you think Colts have a shot for the superbowl th
Quote Originally Posted by Onigen:
so you think Colts have a shot for the superbowl this year?
so you think Colts have a shot for the superbowl this year?
My theory was looking promising till the last 3 minutes of the game....it was almost like the 2 owners in the Texans booth made the call...we spent 70 million you better make tonight happen NFL
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Posted:
#161
Quote Originally Posted by Pacmon1100:
This new app sucks. I read the post and it's interesting, but vegasinsider doesn't give me the percentages anymore.
This new app sucks. I read the post and it's interesting, but vegasinsider doesn't give me the percentages anymore.
Dude, if you read the thread, you will not be confused anymore. He uses his own system to generate winning probability percentages. You wont find the info online. He is not using any sort of publicly available consensus or winning probability percentage. Please read and try to comprehend.
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Posted:
#170
ok...Although I'm NOT a great reader, I have read this entire thread and am missing some stuff that I can eventually get over. However I have some question (For now).....
How did you choose to take the ML on the Colts game vs just taking the spread? And then why not take the Saints ML? And where did I miss your explanation on how the "program percentage" play is determined?
I like the process and agree with the Vegas "fake out" principle. Vegas never picks a score. They set the line that they know the public will buy into.
thanks
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Posted:
#171
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
I cant pass this square opportunity. Compiled enough research to compare the 75% plays of past weeks. Arizona fits that trend
I cant pass this square opportunity. Compiled enough research to compare the 75% plays of past weeks. Arizona fits that trend
Program percentage play
Arizona -7 $2100 to win $2000
Nice Job! The 65% program still working... and the 75% too yesterday. Lets keep rolling this coming weekend
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Posted:
#175
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
I wish I could right a book eventually on how to bet the NFL but I don't think I have enough content to publish an actual book. I'm not a former player or well known gambler so the celebrity angle wouldn't work. I'm also horrible at english and grammar. But if I could some how get the guide and program out to people it would be an amazing accomplishment. Like how Bruce lee introduced jeet kun do to the world. That's the same type of passion I have for wagering as a fan of the sport.
Do you know why Nigerian Sting Operation is full of wrongly pronounced basic words? Because they wanted to filter the smart away from the beginning to have the stupid in their net. I really hope this is not one of those...
I wish I could right a book eventually on how to bet the NFL but I don't think I have enough content to publish an actual book. I'm not a former player or well known gambler so the celebrity angle wouldn't work. I'm also horrible at english and grammar. But if I could some how get the guide and program out to people it would be an amazing accomplishment. Like how Bruce lee introduced jeet kun do to the world. That's the same type of passion I have for wagering as a fan of the sport.
I've been wagering NFL games for ten plus years and have evolved into what I believe is the only way you can make a profit and enjoy the game as a whole. The key is to wager with a big emphasis of patience and conditioning. You see the cable business relies heavily by ESPN which is owned by Disney. Disney pays around 2 billion a year for NFL football games. Anything in disneys hands is commerce and nothing but. The NFL you see today is an entertainment conglomerate. For Disney, the NFL will be the gift that keeps on giving. You, the consumer, will be the mark that keeps paying.
Now this is where the patience and the conditioning comes into play from a wagering perspective. You cannot get caught up into watching all the games and wagering on most of these games as you will be consumed and be the mark that keeps on paying. You have to be able to watch the games as a fan and only wager on key games with a decent starting bankroll. There's 17 weeks into a season to pick those key games. You have to condition yourself to just watch two straight weeks of just watching games and not wagering because the key game was not available for those two weeks. IF you can manage that patience and conditioning that's 80 percent of successful wagering. The other 20% is doing simple analyst research on the key game you plan to wager on.
Now how do you select those key games throughout the 17 week season? The games that the program I use that selects a team to win by 65% and only by 65% no other number. If a team is selected to win by exactly 65% you wager on the opposite team. You are picking games with low line spreads. Makes sense because the line makers will put out lines such as -3 for evenly matched teams. The program statistically saying another team is slightly better than the other by 65%.
Following that system lets back track what a $3000
Starting bankroll would have netted you 16 weeks into the NFL season. Keep in mind betting $1200 a game factoring juice at -120
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