Interesting take on how to bet NFL

Question

I wish I could right a book eventually on how to bet the NFL but I don't think I have enough content to publish an actual book. I'm not a former player or well known gambler so the celebrity angle wouldn't work. I'm also horrible at english and grammar. But if I could some how get the guide and program out to people it would be an amazing accomplishment. Like how Bruce lee introduced jeet kun do to the world. That's the same type of passion I have for wagering as a fan of the sport.

I've been wagering NFL games for ten plus years and have evolved into what I believe is the only way you can make a profit and enjoy the game as a whole. The key is to wager with a big emphasis of patience and conditioning. You see the cable business relies heavily by ESPN which is owned by Disney. Disney pays around 2 billion a year for NFL football games. Anything in disneys hands is commerce and nothing but. The NFL you see today is an entertainment conglomerate. For Disney, the NFL will be the gift that keeps on giving. You, the consumer, will be the mark that keeps paying.

Now this is where the patience and the conditioning comes into play from a wagering perspective. You cannot get caught up into watching all the games and wagering on most of these games as you will be consumed and be the mark that keeps on paying. You have to be able to watch the games as a fan and only wager on key games with a decent starting bankroll. There's 17 weeks into a season to pick those key games. You have to condition yourself to just watch two straight weeks of just watching games and not wagering because the key game was not available for those two weeks. IF you can manage that patience and conditioning that's 80 percent of successful wagering. The other 20% is doing simple analyst research on the key game you plan to wager on.

Now how do you select those key games throughout the 17 week season? The games that the program I use that selects a team to win by 65% and only by 65% no other number. If a team is selected to win by exactly 65% you wager on the opposite team. You are picking games with low line spreads. Makes sense because the line makers will put out lines such as -3 for evenly matched teams. The program statistically saying another team is slightly better than the other by 65%.

Following that system lets back track what a $3000

Starting bankroll would have netted you 16 weeks into the NFL season. Keep in mind betting $1200 a game factoring juice at -120

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

I wish I could right a book eventually on how to bet the NFL but I don't think I have enough content to publish an actual book. I'm not a former player or well known gambler so the celebrity angle wouldn't work. I'm also horrible at english and grammar. But if I could some how get the guide and program out to people it would be an amazing accomplishment. Like how Bruce lee introduced jeet kun do to the world. That's the same type of passion I have for wagering as a fan of the sport.

I've been wagering NFL games for ten plus years and have evolved into what I believe is the only way you can make a profit and enjoy the game as a whole. The key is to wager with a big emphasis of patience and conditioning. You see the cable business relies heavily by ESPN which is owned by Disney. Disney pays around 2 billion a year for NFL football games. Anything in disneys hands is commerce and nothing but. The NFL you see today is an entertainment conglomerate. For Disney, the NFL will be the gift that keeps on giving. You, the consumer, will be the mark that keeps paying.

Now this is where the patience and the conditioning comes into play from a wagering perspective. You cannot get caught up into watching all the games and wagering on most of these games as you will be consumed and be the mark that keeps on paying. You have to be able to watch the games as a fan and only wager on key games with a decent starting bankroll. There's 17 weeks into a season to pick those key games. You have to condition yourself to just watch two straight weeks of just watching games and not wagering because the key game was not available for those two weeks. IF you can manage that patience and conditioning that's 80 percent of successful wagering. The other 20% is doing simple analyst research on the key game you plan to wager on.

Now how do you select those key games throughout the 17 week season? The games that the program I use that selects a team to win by 65% and only by 65% no other number. If a team is selected to win by exactly 65% you wager on the opposite team. You are picking games with low line spreads. Makes sense because the line makers will put out lines such as -3 for evenly matched teams. The program statistically saying another team is slightly better than the other by 65%.

Following that system lets back track what a $3000

Starting bankroll would have netted you 16 weeks into the NFL season. Keep in mind betting $1200 a game factoring juice at -120

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

Week 1-2 no games landed at 65% so this brings back to what I mentioned earlier...could you go the first 2 weeks without betting and just watching? Week 3 falcons @ Cowboys Falcons 65% chance You wager on Cowboys -1 lose -1200Bengals @Ravens - Ravens win (65% chance) You wager Bengals &#x2B;2.5 win $1000

vancity143 · Answer

Nice copy and paste job on most of your first post.

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

Week 4-5No games landed on 65%Week 6Cardinals @ steelers cardinals win (65%chance)wager steelers &#x2B;5.5 win $1000Week 7-9 wait 3 whole weeks and only sitting on $800? Could you handle that?No games landed 65%Week 10Vikings@Raiders-Raiders win (65% chance)You wager Vikings &#x2B;3 win $1000Cardinals@Seahawks-Seahawks win (65% chance)You wager Cardinals &#x2B;3 win $1000

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

Week 11 Broncos@Bears- Broncos win (65% chance)You wager on Bears &#x2B;2.5 win $1000Packers@Vikings- Vikings win (65% chance)you wager on packers &#x2B;1 win $1000Week 12Vikings@Falcons-Falcons win (65% chance)You wager Vikings &#x2B;2 win $1000Ravens@Browns-Browns win (65% chance)You wager Ravens &#x2B;4.5 win $1000Week 13Packers@Lions-Packers win (65% chance)You wager Lions &#x2B;3 lose moosed -$1200Jets@Giants-Giants win (65% chance)You wager jets -2.5 win $1000Texans@Bills-Bills win (65% chance)You wager Texans &#x2B;3 lose -$1200

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

Week 14Bills @ Eagles - Bills win (65% chance)You wager Eagles -1 win $1000Week 15Buccaneers @ Rams - Buccaneers win (65% chance)You wager Rams -1 win $1000Texans @ Colts - Colts win (65% chance)You wager Texans &#x2B;2.5 win $1000Bills @ Redskins - Bills win (65% chance)You wager Redskins &#x2B;3 win $1000Week 16Bengals @ Broncos - Broncos win (65% chance)You wager Bengals &#x2B;4 win $1000Week 17Jets @ Bills - Jets win (65% chance)You wager on Bills ??????

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

So if we analyze the season after week 9 you would only be up $800 that takes a lot of patience and conditioning to start making more with 7 weeks left. If you continued with the system all the way to week 16 you would be at a profit bankroll of $11400. Now imagine $2000 a game which would be double that close to $20,000 for one whole season. Now that's some serious profit.

Noticed all the games were low line games? Noticed that the slightly overvalued teams either straight up lost or did not cover? Here's the thing I emphasize on patience and conditioning because I've seen it first hand and in person why people get caught up losing. I told them to specifically play those key games then the next day I say told you that game would hit huh? They always say the same thing. Oh yea thanks for the pick on the game but I lost my behind on Monday night, second half, Patriots -14 spread etc. I just shake my head and reply dam best of luck next week.....

vancity143 · Answer

What a bunch of copy/paste drivel

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

I had to copy and paste from my notepad using my iPhone because the messages were too long what a pain in the behind!

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

indeed it&#x27;s drivel with the copy pasting nonsense but the information is there whoever takes the time to read it

vancity143 · Answer

There are more than 4 different font styles/sizes. You&#x27;ve copy/pasted from multiple sources. Dont lie.

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

Go google or trace my supposed copy pasted from a source on the net see if anything pops up? like I stated I could not fit the whole book I typed into one post so I copy and pasted from my notepad and computer just to post my entire message

xanthax · Answer

Keep up the good work and thanks for posting.

theclaw · Answer

How did it do last year or the last 5 years or better yet the past 10 years ?

There's no cause and effect to such a thing, looks more like pure coincidence.

I do agree it's very important to stay disiciplined and have patience to whatever your method might be.

Don't force plays because you want more action and don't chase after losses.

And for goodness sake, don't force plays after wins because your up on the houses money and you want to........... take a chance.

Very common mistakes by people who basically are action junkies or just flat-out gambler-mentality people who don't look for or know how to find edges.

PickNSix · Answer

Thanks for the post. So according to your system here the play this weekend is the Bills? I sure hope so because as a Steelers fan we need it more than ever lol.

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

Backtracked 2014 season and the program system had a decimal system tracking games at 57.7%, 53.5%, even at 50% chance to win? Well how do you even pick a team at 50%? The decimal system gone for the 2015. Here&#x27;s the interesting part on these games for 2015 season...Most of these key games kickers have missed field goals. With the new rule change and more kickers missing this year I wonder if that plays a factor into this trend.  I do agree it is just pure coincidence at this point but let&#x27;s see if the trend continues especially with kickers missing more often such as the bengals Broncos game

konabuzz · Answer

If you do "right" a book make sure you get a good proof reader.Good luck with the system.

AFNfootballnerd · Answer

May the force be with the Bills

garung · Answer

so how do you know the game landed 65% chane win ?

undermysac · Answer

What worries me is that I jumped on the Jets Early at -2.5(-130)*hook

and -3(-105) thinking this line should move quickly...but it hasn't. And there's more $ on the Jets.

You seem to have found an obscure little trend and I hope it's wrong on his game, for my sake.

GL

press-it · Answer

Thank You for posting this. Never thought of this idea/angle b4.

Have you tried this with other sports, CFB,CBB,MLB or NHL???

I am trying this angle dry running a bunch of games , with a twist or two. If it works for you, as so it seems, it is worth it's weight in gold if it also works for me too.

This seems to be a lot more efficient & less time consuming.Hoping this works out!

AND I ' capped 'NYJ@BUF . I came up with NYJ a +2 with a 95% chance of winning vs BUF with a 40% chance of winning.

Of course numbers can be misleading, depending which #'s are being used & also how (what application is used)

SO ...if what you say holds true, THEN going against the Jets is a winner. Can't wait til Sunday! Good Luck!

And once more THANKS FOR THE POST!

thorpe · Answer

He is looking at the VegasInsider number on where the action is.  This is far from an original idea.  His only twist is to only bet the ones that are exactly 65%. It is pretty easy to come up with a "system" when you pick out winners from games that already have been played.https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&amp;sub=102207066&amp;page=1

heatformer · Answer

Seen this guy for a couple years now, and I can tell ya he isn&#x27;t bull crapping. Good job sir

Interesting take on how to bet NFL

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