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Interesting take on how to bet NFL

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Posted: #176
Raiders @ Jaguars (raiders 65% chance to win)

Jaguars were +4.5 dogs week one due to an overinflated line. That was the first game we hit to kick off the season as 65% trend. Vegas opened raiders as +1.5 dogs to bait the public . But of course the betting sites and articles that work for Vegas will trick you into saying the SHARPS jumped on the raiders...

Pick Jaguars -1.5 $2200 to win $2000

Ravens @ Jets (Ravens 65% chance to win)

Same situation...Vegas opened Ravens as +1 dogs and the SHARPS jumped on Ravens early .  Plus the public watched the jets not show up in Arizona Monday night 

Pick Jets -1 $2100 to win $2000

Seahawks @ Cardinals (Seahawks 65% chance to win)

I'll take Arizona at home with fitz...Palmer..Johnson...against anybody...and they are only -2? If your into gift lines then this would most definitely be it! 

Pick Cardinals -2 $2200 to win $2000

Noticed all 65% trend plays earlier were all dogs?  Looks like Vegas trying to get tricky with no treats  greedy person....




 
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Posted: #177
I like all the plays except the Jets would give me slight pause.  Also I would look real hard at adding the Eagles +3 .  There is a ton of value with them catching points at home.  Also I think the bye week took some steam out of the Vikings sails.   IMO
 
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Posted: #178
Quote Originally Posted by austrian:

Do you know why Nigerian Sting Operation is full of wrongly pronounced basic words? Because they wanted to filter the smart away from the beginning to have the stupid in their net. I really hope this is not one of those...

bigreds daddy
 
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Posted: #179
 
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Posted: #180
He will win Arizona and Lose Jags and Jets
 
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Posted: #181
G. Smith is starting over Fitz now. Does this affect your Jets play, just curious? 
 
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Posted: #182
Wow. You want to write a book on wagering? With some half-baked concept of 65% chance win (you don't say where or how you came up with the 65% number, so I'll assume it's some variation of football analytics) and then blindly take the opposite side? I've got two pieces of news for you, and it's bad news. 1) Dartboards and monkeys picking would have better results. 2) Your book is already written and finished. Its not a best seller. I can however, be your agent. I will require a hefty upfront fee to peddle your idea to the publishers. For no fee whatsoever, I'll even suggest a name for your book: "How to lose a lot of money betting football games"
 
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Posted: #183
Hey idiots. Read the thread before posting. He has his own program for determining percentages. He talks about it. It seems to be working pretty good to me
 
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Posted: #184
Quote Originally Posted by toddwins:

Wow. You want to write a book on wagering? With some half-baked concept of 65% chance win (you don't say where or how you came up with the 65% number, so I'll assume it's some variation of football analytics) and then blindly take the opposite side? I've got two pieces of news for you, and it's bad news. 1) Dartboards and monkeys picking would have better results. 2) Your book is already written and finished. Its not a best seller. I can however, be your agent. I will require a hefty upfront fee to peddle your idea to the publishers. For no fee whatsoever, I'll even suggest a name for your book: "How to lose a lot of money betting football games"

What a Jackass................
 
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Posted: #185
Hi AFN

There always has to be one ignorant person who doesn't know much about picking games..I like your way of picking and if doesn't matter if someone likes it or not..
Evidently, he must not be doing very well if he is looking at your picks and strategy..
Thank you very much, and keep up the good work.
Looking forward to this weekend to play your picks..

Thanks again.
 
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Posted: #186
Hi,AFN

Any pick for tomorrow's game.. I really like G.B. but this is why I am picking what ever you say to pick

Thanks
 
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Posted: #187
There are no voids to operate within when you're dealing with liquidity and the liquidity providers. Suggesting, even remotely that there is a proven way "to beat the bookies" is as doomed to be proven wrong as if someone would offer you to rob the bank. It may even work at the beginning - but if your intentions are to inflict considerable damage on other side - enough for the other side to feel it - the same minute the other side will focus on changing whatever the part of the system you took the advantage of. There are no long lasting loopholes unless you do it modestly and try to fly constantly under the radar.
The other way is to join them as you obviously can't beat them. In that case you should figure what side the liquidity provider who is the market has it's money on - or what side winning will cause him the damage. Like Phixer. That is the way he works and explains and teaches and preaches and earns by. That is the only way the other side can't change any system because he is the system
We took a great experiment here in Innsbruck, at the University, academically trying to prove the game science to be wrong. But, we did not. The only thing we realized that the game will always be on. The rules will change and so the perceptions - but the game has the life of his own as the dynamics will always take the control and balance the sides around as there is non way someone will give up on a game
 
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Posted: #188
Thx for posting AFN!  Good luck with your plays this week.
 
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Posted: #189
You have the same philosophy of darth vader....I personally work for the federal government...I see what goes on in real life pertaining to the system as well as how the sports market runs their establishment. I look at myself as a rebel laying low inside the establishment. You learn and adapt to see what they enforce and what they try to control. It's the Rebels that keep the balance in check. This is my way of rebeling against the system and establishment while helping the common man along the way. Most contribute to the system but I know there's a minority out there fighting against the system. I would never go tout as someone you mentioned. You should always have that rebel mentality in all aspects in life. Sports wagering is my outlet to take away from the suits. It's just one outlet of several that should be encouraged.
 
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Posted: #190
Hey AFN first and foremost, I appreciate everything you do! Thank you! 2nd, I'm not seeing where the 65% trend play got its 2nd loss.  I feel like the record should currently be 6-1-1.  Did I miss one?
 
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Posted: #191
Cards -2 will likely get better as the week goes on. I'll probably wait til -1 to play.
 
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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

You have the same philosophy of darth vader....I personally work for the federal government...I see what goes on in real life pertaining to the system as well as how the sports market runs their establishment. I look at myself as a rebel laying low inside the establishment. You learn and adapt to see what they enforce and what they try to control. It's the Rebels that keep the balance in check. This is my way of rebeling against the system and establishment while helping the common man along the way. Most contribute to the system but I know there's a minority out there fighting against the system. I would never go tout as someone you mentioned. You should always have that rebel mentality in all aspects in life. Sports wagering is my outlet to take away from the suits. It's just one outlet of several that should be encouraged.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsqJFIJ5lLs

 
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Posted: #193
Afn,

when you ran your program for the jets game did it assume fitz was starting? If so, is there a way to re run it with geno being the starter?

Thanks
 
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Posted: #194
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

You have the same philosophy of darth vader....I personally work for the federal government...I see what goes on in real life pertaining to the system as well as how the sports market runs their establishment. I look at myself as a rebel laying low inside the establishment. You learn and adapt to see what they enforce and what they try to control. It's the Rebels that keep the balance in check. This is my way of rebeling against the system and establishment while helping the common man along the way. Most contribute to the system but I know there's a minority out there fighting against the system. I would never go tout as someone you mentioned. You should always have that rebel mentality in all aspects in life. Sports wagering is my outlet to take away from the suits. It's just one outlet of several that should be encouraged.
I really wish what you said describing your motives were true. I really wish  - if they are indeed true motives - you would accomplish the far reaching goal of sticking it to the man. But...
 
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Posted: #195
You have to realize that once the damage you cause is painful enough ... to the...suits, they will either change the strategy or recruit you on
All I am saying that there are 3 motivation stories why one gives something that costs the most valuable asset - the time - for free to someone who most probably going to drink it out or waste in any other way since if he/she had enough brains to keep it - they wouldn't be lurking here looking a bagging for someone else to feed them. The motives are: Robin Hood, Monte Cristo, Social Guy who "thinks" everybody better have money so the economy moves, and the beta tester guy. You fall in the category of Robin Hood, or Monte Cristo. May be a Social Guy - but not as of yet. So - help me out here and convince me you're with the good guys and you will get more than you thought you bargained for. So, which one is it?
 
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Posted: #196
Phixer...please
 
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Posted: #197
Quote Originally Posted by thelaw88:

Afn,

when you ran your program for the jets game did it assume fitz was starting? If so, is there a way to re run it with geno being the starter?

Thanks

I ran my program assuming geno would start considering I saw him play in the 4th. I input geno same as I did with Jacoby brissett when he got the start for the patriots.  I can only assume they would play as the NFL average.  I actually picked the patriots that game and I was pleased by the result.  The same situation here as I hope geno is motivated for his comeback story which he himself said hopefully one day he can WRITE a book 

 
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Posted: #198
Quote Originally Posted by JoDeCi24:

Hey AFN first and foremost, I appreciate everything you do! Thank you! 2nd, I'm not seeing where the 65% trend play got its 2nd loss.  I feel like the record should currently be 6-1-1.  Did I miss one?

I counted colts ML as a loss...
 
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Posted: #199
Great Job so far
 
 
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Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Raiders @ Jaguars (raiders 65% chance to win)

Jaguars were +4.5 dogs week one due to an overinflated line. That was the first game we hit to kick off the season as 65% trend. Vegas opened raiders as +1.5 dogs to bait the public . But of course the betting sites and articles that work for Vegas will trick you into saying the SHARPS jumped on the raiders...

Pick Jaguars -1.5 $2200 to win $2000

Ravens @ Jets (Ravens 65% chance to win)

Same situation...Vegas opened Ravens as +1 dogs and the SHARPS jumped on Ravens early .  Plus the public watched the jets not show up in Arizona Monday night 

Pick Jets -1 $2100 to win $2000

Seahawks @ Cardinals (Seahawks 65% chance to win)

I'll take Arizona at home with fitz...Palmer..Johnson...against anybody...and they are only -2? If your into gift lines then this would most definitely be it! 

Pick Cardinals -2 $2200 to win $2000

Noticed all 65% trend plays earlier were all dogs?  Looks like Vegas trying to get tricky with no treats  greedy person....





Let's get this 3... Good Luck and thanks  AFNfootballnerd 
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