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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Interesting take on how to bet NFL

    «First Previous 678 ... 111213 Next Last»
    RF1
    BallingLikeNE
    Onigen
    Jrod6
    undermysac
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    «First Previous 678 ... 111213 Next Last»
     
    RF1
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    Posted: Oct. 7, 2016 - 12:34 AM ET #126

    Quote Originally Posted by Tailgatingcats:

    I am on this lions pick as well.  They have a +5.5 edge here on the value index.  Public will hammer eagles.  This will be my third eagles fade this season.  Good luck

    hows that worked so far?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tailgatingcats:

    I am on this lions pick as well.  They have a +5.5 edge here on the value index.  Public will hammer eagles.  This will be my third eagles fade this season.  Good luck

    hows that worked so far?
     
    BallingLikeNE
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    Posted: Oct. 7, 2016 - 1:28 AM ET #127

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny_walker69:




    So, where or how do you get the % of each game?
    Thanks

    it's his own system that he came up with, it's not posted in public so you will never know when a team is favored by 65% you have to check his thread and only he will tell you.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny_walker69:




    So, where or how do you get the % of each game?
    Thanks

    it's his own system that he came up with, it's not posted in public so you will never know when a team is favored by 65% you have to check his thread and only he will tell you.
     
    Onigen
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    Posted: Oct. 9, 2016 - 7:45 PM ET #128

    Disney sketch was great. Eagle was up 2 point and fumbles the ball in the 4th quarter with 1.30 seconds left near the 20 yard line. Classic.
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    Disney sketch was great. Eagle was up 2 point and fumbles the ball in the 4th quarter with 1.30 seconds left near the 20 yard line. Classic.
     
    Jrod6
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    Posted: Oct. 9, 2016 - 8:34 PM ET #129

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    undermysac
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    Posted: Oct. 9, 2016 - 8:46 PM ET #130

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny_walker69:




    So, where or how do you get the % of each game?
    Thanks


    He uses his own metrics to find a win probability. 
    Read from the beginning.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny_walker69:




    So, where or how do you get the % of each game?
    Thanks


    He uses his own metrics to find a win probability. 
    Read from the beginning.
     
    AFNfootballnerd
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2016 - 12:31 AM ET #131

    Quote Originally Posted by Onigen:

    Disney sketch was great. Eagle was up 2 point and fumbles the ball in the 4th quarter with 1.30 seconds left near the 20 yard line. Classic.

    Was thinking not another lions choke again but....the script was classic...fumble to gift lions...Eagles still have a chance and of course the interception to end the act to a fairy tale ending for the lions  

    Disney really focused on the encore of the week which was the Brady show and literally handed out money to the public.  Makes sense week 5 gotta keep the public engaged still alot of football ahead....the Brady show made the lions pick more confident as it was clearly the sleeper moneyline play of the week all the sports talk radio and TV shows did not talk about lions at home...I use metrics but also see through the smoke and mirrors that Disney obviously profits from every year 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onigen:

    Disney sketch was great. Eagle was up 2 point and fumbles the ball in the 4th quarter with 1.30 seconds left near the 20 yard line. Classic.

    Was thinking not another lions choke again but....the script was classic...fumble to gift lions...Eagles still have a chance and of course the interception to end the act to a fairy tale ending for the lions  

    Disney really focused on the encore of the week which was the Brady show and literally handed out money to the public.  Makes sense week 5 gotta keep the public engaged still alot of football ahead....the Brady show made the lions pick more confident as it was clearly the sleeper moneyline play of the week all the sports talk radio and TV shows did not talk about lions at home...I use metrics but also see through the smoke and mirrors that Disney obviously profits from every year 
     
    anaheimRX
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2016 - 12:40 AM ET #132

    i feel like sometimes the Patriots are given the green light to go full strength, other times they'll just make it interesting. 

    this was one of those days where they were just let loose. 
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    i feel like sometimes the Patriots are given the green light to go full strength, other times they'll just make it interesting. 

    this was one of those days where they were just let loose. 
     
    Supersharpone
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2016 - 4:08 AM ET #133


    Great job AFN!!!


    Any lean for MNF?
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    Great job AFN!!!


    Any lean for MNF?
     
    Onigen
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2016 - 7:45 AM ET #134

    Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


    Was thinking not another lions choke again but....the script was classic...fumble to gift lions...Eagles still have a chance and of course the interception to end the act to a fairy tale ending for the lions  

    Disney really focused on the encore of the week which was the Brady show and literally handed out money to the public.  Makes sense week 5 gotta keep the public engaged still alot of football ahead....the Brady show made the lions pick more confident as it was clearly the sleeper moneyline play of the week all the sports talk radio and TV shows did not talk about lions at home...I use metrics but also see through the smoke and mirrors that Disney obviously profits from every year 

    Always stick to your formula and the results will show. Good Job capper.
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


    Was thinking not another lions choke again but....the script was classic...fumble to gift lions...Eagles still have a chance and of course the interception to end the act to a fairy tale ending for the lions  

    Disney really focused on the encore of the week which was the Brady show and literally handed out money to the public.  Makes sense week 5 gotta keep the public engaged still alot of football ahead....the Brady show made the lions pick more confident as it was clearly the sleeper moneyline play of the week all the sports talk radio and TV shows did not talk about lions at home...I use metrics but also see through the smoke and mirrors that Disney obviously profits from every year 

    Always stick to your formula and the results will show. Good Job capper.
     
    User358183b
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2016 - 8:30 AM ET #135

    Post Deleted
    The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
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    AFNfootballnerd
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    Posted: Oct. 13, 2016 - 8:12 AM ET #136

    NFL 2016

    5-1 (65% trend plays)

    Total = $7200 

    3-2 (program percentage plays)

    Total = $1050 

    Bankroll Total = $8250

    Panthers @ Saints (Panthers 65% chance to win)

    Panthers are done for the season...their whole season was decided on one of the worst calls I've seen in football...panthers were running the ball well against the bucs. First and goal and they decided to throw the ball with Derek Anderson? Rivera can down play that bad call all week even with cam newton returning...this team is done....

    Pick Saints +3  $2200 to win $2000

    Colts @ Texans (Texans 65% chance to win)

    Colts need to win this game...public not sold on colts losing to Jaguars in London. Classic +3 line as Vegas knows this will be a tight game...Don't fall asleep on the colts because I still think they have a shot to the Super Bowl....obviously they need to win this game 

    Pick Colts +3 $2200 to win $2000
    Colts ML $1000 to win $1400



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    NFL 2016

    5-1 (65% trend plays)

    Total = $7200 

    3-2 (program percentage plays)

    Total = $1050 

    Bankroll Total = $8250

    Panthers @ Saints (Panthers 65% chance to win)

    Panthers are done for the season...their whole season was decided on one of the worst calls I've seen in football...panthers were running the ball well against the bucs. First and goal and they decided to throw the ball with Derek Anderson? Rivera can down play that bad call all week even with cam newton returning...this team is done....

    Pick Saints +3  $2200 to win $2000

    Colts @ Texans (Texans 65% chance to win)

    Colts need to win this game...public not sold on colts losing to Jaguars in London. Classic +3 line as Vegas knows this will be a tight game...Don't fall asleep on the colts because I still think they have a shot to the Super Bowl....obviously they need to win this game 

    Pick Colts +3 $2200 to win $2000
    Colts ML $1000 to win $1400



     
    jonny_walker69
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    Posted: Oct. 13, 2016 - 12:22 PM ET #137

    Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

    NFL 2016

    5-1 (65% trend plays)

    Total = $7200 

    3-2 (program percentage plays)

    Total = $1050 

    Bankroll Total = $8250

    Panthers @ Saints (Panthers 65% chance to win)

    Panthers are done for the season...their whole season was decided on one of the worst calls I've seen in football...panthers were running the ball well against the bucs. First and goal and they decided to throw the ball with Derek Anderson? Rivera can down play that bad call all week even with cam newton returning...this team is done....

    Pick Saints +3  $2200 to win $2000

    Colts @ Texans (Texans 65% chance to win)

    Colts need to win this game...public not sold on colts losing to Jaguars in London. Classic +3 line as Vegas knows this will be a tight game...Don't fall asleep on the colts because I still think they have a shot to the Super Bowl....obviously they need to win this game 

    Pick Colts +3 $2200 to win $2000
    Colts ML $1000 to win $1400





    THANKS GOOD LUCK !
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    Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

    NFL 2016

    5-1 (65% trend plays)

    Total = $7200 

    3-2 (program percentage plays)

    Total = $1050 

    Bankroll Total = $8250

    Panthers @ Saints (Panthers 65% chance to win)

    Panthers are done for the season...their whole season was decided on one of the worst calls I've seen in football...panthers were running the ball well against the bucs. First and goal and they decided to throw the ball with Derek Anderson? Rivera can down play that bad call all week even with cam newton returning...this team is done....

    Pick Saints +3  $2200 to win $2000

    Colts @ Texans (Texans 65% chance to win)

    Colts need to win this game...public not sold on colts losing to Jaguars in London. Classic +3 line as Vegas knows this will be a tight game...Don't fall asleep on the colts because I still think they have a shot to the Super Bowl....obviously they need to win this game 

    Pick Colts +3 $2200 to win $2000
    Colts ML $1000 to win $1400





    THANKS GOOD LUCK !
     
    obsessed
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    Posted: Oct. 13, 2016 - 12:51 PM ET #138

    Thanks AFN

    I like your logic..I will try it.. Any take on TNF game..
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    Thanks AFN

    I like your logic..I will try it.. Any take on TNF game..
     
    sfg8
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    Posted: Oct. 13, 2016 - 2:32 PM ET #139

    nice start..keep it rolling..bol


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    nice start..keep it rolling..bol


     
    Michfan15
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    Posted: Oct. 13, 2016 - 9:54 PM ET #140

    First sentence: "I want to right a book"....[closes thread]  
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    First sentence: "I want to right a book"....[closes thread]  
     
    AFNfootballnerd
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2016 - 4:04 AM ET #141

     Yea...I always sucked at writing...forgot to mention the colts will go to the super bowl...Vikings and Colts 
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     Yea...I always sucked at writing...forgot to mention the colts will go to the super bowl...Vikings and Colts 
     
    CommonKid
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2016 - 2:48 PM ET #142

    You really think that Colts O-line can help take them to the super bowl? So far this year they have given up the most sacks and the second most QB hits.
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    You really think that Colts O-line can help take them to the super bowl? So far this year they have given up the most sacks and the second most QB hits.
     
    Wahoo8
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2016 - 4:02 PM ET #143

    Thanks for all the hard work and BOL!
    Long Live Chief Wahoo
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    Thanks for all the hard work and BOL!
     
    sfg8
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2016 - 4:04 PM ET #144

    NIce record ..keep the W's rolling..
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    NIce record ..keep the W's rolling..
     
    thewalkon777
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2016 - 4:35 PM ET #145

    I must say that after reading this thread I'm very impressed with your system. I wasn't considering the Colts or Saints but will look into it.

    Congratulations with all the success you've had so far 
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    I must say that after reading this thread I'm very impressed with your system. I wasn't considering the Colts or Saints but will look into it.

    Congratulations with all the success you've had so far 
     
    Dzzy
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2016 - 5:43 PM ET #146

    It says New Orleans is a 65% chance to win so shouldn't it be Carolina?
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    It says New Orleans is a 65% chance to win so shouldn't it be Carolina?
     
    Dzzy
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2016 - 5:55 PM ET #147

    It says new orleans is 65% chance to win so shouldn't it be Carolina?
    Quote Originally Posted by jonny_walker69:

    Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

    NFL 20165-1 (65% trend plays)Total = $7200 3-2 (program percentage plays)Total = $1050 Bankroll Total = $8250Panthers @ Saints (Panthers 65% chance to win)Panthers are done for the season...their whole season was decided on one of the worst calls I've seen in football...panthers were running the ball well against the bucs. First and goal and they decided to throw the ball with Derek Anderson? Rivera can down play that bad call all week even with cam newton returning...this team is done....Pick Saints +3  $2200 to win $2000Colts @ Texans (Texans 65% chance to win)Colts need to win this game...public not sold on colts losing to Jaguars in London. Classic +3 line as Vegas knows this will be a tight game...Don't fall asleep on the colts because I still think they have a shot to the Super Bowl....obviously they need to win this game Pick Colts +3 $2200 to win $2000Colts ML $1000 to win $1400
    THANKS GOOD LUCK !

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    It says new orleans is 65% chance to win so shouldn't it be Carolina?
    Quote Originally Posted by jonny_walker69:

    Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

    NFL 20165-1 (65% trend plays)Total = $7200 3-2 (program percentage plays)Total = $1050 Bankroll Total = $8250Panthers @ Saints (Panthers 65% chance to win)Panthers are done for the season...their whole season was decided on one of the worst calls I've seen in football...panthers were running the ball well against the bucs. First and goal and they decided to throw the ball with Derek Anderson? Rivera can down play that bad call all week even with cam newton returning...this team is done....Pick Saints +3  $2200 to win $2000Colts @ Texans (Texans 65% chance to win)Colts need to win this game...public not sold on colts losing to Jaguars in London. Classic +3 line as Vegas knows this will be a tight game...Don't fall asleep on the colts because I still think they have a shot to the Super Bowl....obviously they need to win this game Pick Colts +3 $2200 to win $2000Colts ML $1000 to win $1400
    THANKS GOOD LUCK !

     
    ChOmP
    ChOmP
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2016 - 11:00 PM ET #148

    Here's my take on your colts pick and I'm sure I'll be proven wrong once again.. Needing a win won't necessarily get you the win if your offensive line is TERRIBLE..not to mention there defense ..I actually feel sorry for Luck this Oline makes him look really bad..which might also be the reason he makes bad decisions and takes more risks trying to make something happen out of nothing..on the other hand Brock is terrible..but one thing I would say is there 2nd hf adjustments have been SOLID...Which I find strange that he can put up that many points in the 2nd hf but not the first???
    Good Luck
    Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
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    Here's my take on your colts pick and I'm sure I'll be proven wrong once again.. Needing a win won't necessarily get you the win if your offensive line is TERRIBLE..not to mention there defense ..I actually feel sorry for Luck this Oline makes him look really bad..which might also be the reason he makes bad decisions and takes more risks trying to make something happen out of nothing..on the other hand Brock is terrible..but one thing I would say is there 2nd hf adjustments have been SOLID...Which I find strange that he can put up that many points in the 2nd hf but not the first???
    Good Luck
     
    AFNfootballnerd
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    Posted: Oct. 16, 2016 - 12:21 AM ET #149

    Good points chomp....those second half adjustments are a sign this colts team can hopefully salvage the team as a whole and fix their O-line issues....as long as luck can score it will keep the pressure off the defense.  The defense struggled because they are on the field way to long due to offensive issues.

    I get that sense that the NFL wants to push luck to the spotlight and this year needs to be that push.  Especially after Brock got that huge contract with the Texans. It almost looks suspect the way cam newton has been erased in terms of NFL scripting. Gotta remember the cam newton Andrew luck comparison drama just a few years back.  How everybody would take luck over Newton.  Cam and the panthers were the under dogs and came out of nowhere all the sudden. The NFL tapped into the Cam newton script and market with them going to the Super Bowl.  Remember all the hype last year almost going undefeated? Was great for the league which of course like I stated earlier in the thread it's a business. I feel the next script is the Andrew luck show this year as the public is being hoodwinked into believing they suck this year.
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    Good points chomp....those second half adjustments are a sign this colts team can hopefully salvage the team as a whole and fix their O-line issues....as long as luck can score it will keep the pressure off the defense.  The defense struggled because they are on the field way to long due to offensive issues.

    I get that sense that the NFL wants to push luck to the spotlight and this year needs to be that push.  Especially after Brock got that huge contract with the Texans. It almost looks suspect the way cam newton has been erased in terms of NFL scripting. Gotta remember the cam newton Andrew luck comparison drama just a few years back.  How everybody would take luck over Newton.  Cam and the panthers were the under dogs and came out of nowhere all the sudden. The NFL tapped into the Cam newton script and market with them going to the Super Bowl.  Remember all the hype last year almost going undefeated? Was great for the league which of course like I stated earlier in the thread it's a business. I feel the next script is the Andrew luck show this year as the public is being hoodwinked into believing they suck this year.
     
     
    AFNfootballnerd
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    Posted: Oct. 16, 2016 - 12:39 AM ET #150

    I use my own metrics to stick to the system trend but I also reinforce the key games like the colts with the train of thought you have to have when capping the NFL. The average NFL fan are clueless that this type of scripting goes on.  But at the end of the day they are the ones that pour money into the entertainment we love to watch. I just want to make money as a hobby as I enjoy watching the sport 
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    I use my own metrics to stick to the system trend but I also reinforce the key games like the colts with the train of thought you have to have when capping the NFL. The average NFL fan are clueless that this type of scripting goes on.  But at the end of the day they are the ones that pour money into the entertainment we love to watch. I just want to make money as a hobby as I enjoy watching the sport 
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