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Posted: #101
Dolphins @ Bengals (program percentage play)

Pick Dolphins +7.5 $1150 to win $1000

I started running a model where a favorite teams probability to cover the spread is determined by a percentage. For example, with dolphins bengals matchup.  If the game was played 100 times the bengals would only cover by 7 or more 28% of the time. 

The model took forever to finalize because I had to look for consistency in the model and I've finally found it was very frustrating adding the statistatical model to probability and not finding consistency 

Bengals only covering 28% of the time at -7? 

I'll take Dolphins +7.5 with a 72% chance to cover all day everyday with those odds
 
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Posted: #102
But then Carolina blowout Atlanta last to before giving that game away to Atlanta at the end of regular season
 
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Posted: #103
So at +9.5 now on 5dimes, do you think something has changed? Like lineup changes?
 
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Posted: #104
Covering 28% of the time for a line as high as 7.5 actually seems like a high win percentage. But why change your system that seemed to work well. You said it yourself, for your system it is all about patience. This one seemed rushed just to get some action on a game, just sayin 
 
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Posted: #105
taking a week off?
 
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Posted: #106
NFL 2016

3-1 (65% trend plays)

Falcons +3.5 $2000

Total = $3800 

3-1 (program percentage plays)

Dolphins +7.5 -$1150 

Total = $3350 

Bankroll total = $7150 

Giants @ Vikings (program percentage play)

I ran the percentages and the program is telling me Giants have a 67% chance to win and they are dogs?  Waited for the line to jump to +4.5.  

Pick Giants +4.5 $2300 to win $2000 

 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by jerzeyboy56:

Covering 28% of the time for a line as high as 7.5 actually seems like a high win percentage. But why change your system that seemed to work well. You said it yourself, for your system it is all about patience. This one seemed rushed just to get some action on a game, just sayin 

 65% trend plays are 3-1 so far....theres still a lot a football left for the season so hopefully the trend will continue to profit.  The program percentage plays are plays I decided to play because I noticed really good numbers for key games.  For example this weeks MNF Giants at 67% chance to win and they are dogs? I cant pass up these key games so I decided to separate to not get confused.

Will these program percentage plays lower my bankroll and cause me to lose throughout the season?  Maybe...but as a fan and a hobby of mine i still continue to find key games to cap such as the personal program plays.  I guess i like to keep my mind busy
 
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Posted: #108
Vikings are 0-7 ATS their last 7 Monday night football games 


 
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Posted: #109
and ? You change your mind ?
 
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Posted: #110
Hey this was a nice read. Keep it going! 
 
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Posted: #111
NFL 2016

3-1 (65% trend plays)

Total = $3800 

3-2 (program percentage plays)

Total = $1050 

Bankroll Total = $4850

Eagles @ Lions (Eagles 65% chance to win)

So it dawned on me at work the next day after the Giants loss on Monday night.....why am I playing these non trend plays? I believe I wanted action on the Dolphins Thursday night game and Giants Monday night.  I'm not practicing what I preached at the start of this thread.  

I gotta stick to the key select games   The Disney script played out perfectly with Odell beckham and boy...did I fall for that one on Monday night. 

December 3, 2105 packers at lions....anybody remember that game last year? A 61 yard Hail Mary pass from Rogers that beat the lions 27-23. The packers were -3 that game. A game the lions should have won straight up. 

Pick Lions $2200 to win $2000
Lions ML $1000 to win $1400











 
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Posted: #112
Lions
 
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Posted: #113
best comment so far. stick to your game plan. BOL 
 
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Posted: #114
what does "December 3, 2105 packers at lions" have anything to do with Eagles @ Lions this week? 

different opponent and it's not even a prime time game like the GB vs DET game.
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE:

what does "December 3, 2105 packers at lions" have anything to do with Eagles @ Lions this week? different opponent and it's not even a prime time game like the GB vs DET game.

That game landed on 65% trend last year a -3 favorite playing in Detroit
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


That game landed on 65% trend last year a -3 favorite playing in Detroit

 alot of love for Eagles, GL
 
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Posted: #117
I am on this lions pick as well.  They have a +5.5 edge here on the value index.  Public will hammer eagles.  This will be my third eagles fade this season.  Good luck
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

NFL 2016

3-1 (65% trend plays)

Total = $3800 

3-2 (program percentage plays)

Total = $1050 

Bankroll Total = $4850

Eagles @ Lions (Eagles 65% chance to win)

So it dawned on me at work the next day after the Giants loss on Monday night.....why am I playing these non trend plays? I believe I wanted action on the Dolphins Thursday night game and Giants Monday night.  I'm not practicing what I preached at the start of this thread.  

I gotta stick to the key select games   The Disney script played out perfectly with Odell beckham and boy...did I fall for that one on Monday night. 

December 3, 2105 packers at lions....anybody remember that game last year? A 61 yard Hail Mary pass from Rogers that beat the lions 27-23. The packers were -3 that game. A game the lions should have won straight up. 

Pick Lions $2200 to win $2000
Lions ML $1000 to win $1400














2016 NFL WEEK 5
HOU                                      MIN
35%                                       65%
+6.5                                       -6.5
OPEN: O/U: 40 MIN -6.5
LIVE: O/U: 41 MIN -6.5

WITH YOUR SYSTEM WE SHOULD GO WITH TEXANS


 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

NFL 2016

3-1 (65% trend plays)

Total = $3800 

3-2 (program percentage plays)

Total = $1050 

Bankroll Total = $4850

Eagles @ Lions (Eagles 65% chance to win)

So it dawned on me at work the next day after the Giants loss on Monday night.....why am I playing these non trend plays? I believe I wanted action on the Dolphins Thursday night game and Giants Monday night.  I'm not practicing what I preached at the start of this thread.  

I gotta stick to the key select games   The Disney script played out perfectly with Odell beckham and boy...did I fall for that one on Monday night. 

December 3, 2105 packers at lions....anybody remember that game last year? A 61 yard Hail Mary pass from Rogers that beat the lions 27-23. The packers were -3 that game. A game the lions should have won straight up. 

Pick Lions $2200 to win $2000
Lions ML $1000 to win $1400













2016 NFL WEEK 5
HOU                                      MIN
35%                                       65%
+6.5                                      -6.5

HERE'S ANOTHER GAME WITH 65% LEAN ON TEXANS
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by jonny_walker69:




2016 NFL WEEK 5
HOU                                      MIN
35%                                       65%
+6.5                                       -6.5
OPEN: O/U: 40 MIN -6.5
LIVE: O/U: 41 MIN -6.5

WITH YOUR SYSTEM WE SHOULD GO WITH TEXANS



How do you figure that? His "system" is betting on teams that have a 35% chance to win according to his program. So you used his program to conclude that his system says to bet on Houston?
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by jonny_walker69:

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

NFL 20163-1 (65% trend plays)Total = $3800 3-2 (program percentage plays)Total = $1050 Bankroll Total = $4850Eagles @ Lions (Eagles 65% chance to win)So it dawned on me at work the next day after the Giants loss on Monday night.....why am I playing these non trend plays? I believe I wanted action on the Dolphins Thursday night game and Giants Monday night.  I'm not practicing what I preached at the start of this thread.  I gotta stick to the key select games   The Disney script played out perfectly with Odell beckham and boy...did I fall for that one on Monday night. December 3, 2105 packers at lions....anybody remember that game last year? A 61 yard Hail Mary pass from Rogers that beat the lions 27-23. The packers were -3 that game. A game the lions should have won straight up. Pick Lions $2200 to win $2000Lions ML $1000 to win $1400
2016 NFL WEEK 5


HOU                                      MIN





35%                                       65%

+6.5                                      -6.5HERE'S ANOTHER GAME WITH 65% LEAN ON TEXANS


You are getting confused about the system...do not and I repeat do NOT use betting consensus percentage to pick games
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

2016 NFL WEEK 5


HOU                                      MIN





35%                                       65%

+6.5                                      -6.5HERE'S ANOTHER GAME WITH 65% LEAN ON TEXANS

You are getting confused about the system...do not and I repeat do NOT use betting consensus percentage to pick games



So, where or how do you get the % of each game?
Thanks
 
Prospect
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Posted: #123
Sup bros ! Any play on to night game ?
 
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Posted: #124
Hey AFN

I have been trying to follow your system with the 65 percent..If the team that is favored by 65 percent, Is this the team you pick or you go the other way and take the team that is only favored by 35 percent..After reading these responses I am now confused..
Appreciate everything.. I understand this is just your theory, but I really  like it and would like to try it..When do you post your picks..Do you have anything for tonight's game. If not would it be ok if you could help me out some..I am not very good at this..

Thanks
 
 
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Posted: #125
AFN,
Really interesting stuff!! Would love to see your program. But as long as you keep posting stuff here im gonna tail ya! Really need to get back at my bookie. Thanks a lo!!
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