Indigo week 2 angles/picks

Final college picks, CFL picks to come......

Complete NFL done on Saturday night.

I made some plays that I later opted out of....I will wait from now on until  later in the week to post to avoid confusion.

Plays:                                              Public KOC percentage of bets

1)  Argonauts  (CFL) +4'....2 units....................28%

2)  North Texas +9'...........1 unit.....................41%

3)  UNLV +7'....................1 unit.....................37%

4)  UMass +4'..................1 unit......................29%

5)  Tulane +13'................1 unit.....................37%

6)  Washington State +4...1 unit.....................42%

7)  Central Michigan +17'..1 unit.....................41%

8)  Florida State -5'..........1 unit.....................47%

9)  Browns +3'.................2 units...................30%

10) Chargers -4'...............2 units...................79%

Will update during game days of further plays....

9-6 (2-4 NFL),.....+3.95 units for the year posting....lost the MNF game with the Jets+

Weeks 2-7 are typically my strongest weeks in the NFL.

angles cont.

15)  A week 2, 3 or 4 NFL away favorite of 7 or less that won at home last game, that played in at least two playoff games the season prior......13-36 ATS (-5.6), 17-31 straight up (-2.1).....VERSUS Fortyniners

If this is a non-divisional game and their present opponent won on the road their previous game, this has been 3-11 ATS (-9.1), 4-10 straight up (-6.0)

16)  A week two NFL non-divisional away dog that played in at least two playoff games the season prior.....6-13 ATS (-4.1), 5-14 straight up (-8.1)....VERSUS Bucs

17)  A NFL week two away dog that missed the playoffs last season off a home win by more than 15 points....9-15 ATS (-2.8), 6-18 (-7.8)....VERSUS Saints

Angle....

18)  A NFL week 2 away dog whose next week line is stronger than their present opponent's next week line when both teams lost the previous week....21-2-1 ATS (+8.3), 14-10 straight up (+3.2)....ON Raiders, Giants, Browns

For example.....the Raiders will be favored by around 4.5 points at home to Carolina next week, while the Ravens will be an away dog at Dallas.

Lamar has not been great at home as a favorite for the Ravens....their offensive line is going to be a problem for them this season,....will be interesting to see what happens when they face the defensive front of Dallas in week 3 plus the Ravens' excellent long-term offensive line coach died recently and his replacement has some questionable credentials.  Would normally be an auto-play on the Ravens on the road as an away dog next week (the lookahead line is +1), but not so sure this season.

Play:

11)  Raiders +8'.....1 unit

Adding two NFL plays:

Adding a couple more NFL....

                                                   Public KOC percentage of bets

12)  Bengals +5'................2 units....................31%

11)  Saints +6...................2 units....................37

10)  Raiders +8' .....................2 units....................24%

13)  Chargers -4' deleted

9)    Argonauts +4'............2 units....................30%

8)    Tulane +13'...............1 unit.....................37%

7)    Florida State -5'.........1 unit.....................47%

6)    Central Michigan +17' 1 unit.....................41%

5)    UNLV +7'..................1/2 unit..................37%

4)    North Texas +9'........1/2 unit...................41%

3)    UMass +4'...............1/2 unit...................29%

2)   Washington State +4..1/2 unit..................42%

1)   Browns +3'................2 units...................30%

@Indigo999

 Angle #17  says versus Saints and you have Saints listed as a 2 unit play, think its supposed to Cowboys as your play.

@Indigo999

 so are these your final plays?

GL w the picks!  Any reason why you pulled the Chargers bet?  was it the 79% public?

Hate to say it I wanted to take that bet too as a retail punter bc of Bryce Young 

You still like the Rams? Saw they were on an earlier post but no update on whether you pulled that or not.

@Indigo999

Do you have any data on how college football home favs or home dogs do in Homecoming games?  In my experience it seems like the dogs are better bets than the favs by quite a bit.  

Yeah, you're on top of it VBF.....forgot to post them again....I'm on them.

Plays:

12)  Bengals +5'................2 units....................31%

 11)  Saints +6...................2 units...................37%.....deleted.....very good angles on both NO and Dallas so I'm out.

10)  Raiders +8' ...............2 units....................24%

13)  Chargers -4' deleted

9)    Argonauts +4'............2 units....................30%......winner

8)    Tulane +13'...............1 unit.....................37%

7)    Florida State -5'.........1 unit.....................47%

6)    Central Michigan +17' 1 unit.....................41%

5)    UNLV +7'..................1/2 unit..................37%.......winner

4)    North Texas +10'........1/2 unit.................41%....was able to get them at 10.5 instead of the original 9.5

3)    UMass +4'...............1/2 unit...................29%

2)   Washington State +4..1/2 unit..................42%

1)   Browns +3'................2 units...................30%

14)  Rams +100..............2 units....................66%.....only public play I'm taking for the weekend.

_______________________________________________________________

Adding:

15) Vikings +5................2 units....................33%

There are very good angles on the NYG and Houston...we'll call them leans for now as I in particular am not sure if I want to back Daniel Jones, despite his very good history as an away dog and also his history versus Washington....if I play them at a later time I won't post them as I am causing some angst and confusion among those that are coming onto my posts and to myself....lol........

.....good fortune this weekend.....

Marc Lawrence always talks about how homecoming favorites are fades....the databases I utilize has nothing in it to denote what past games were on homecoming weekend.

Yes, having the public on them in such a HUGE percentage was part of it....I ran probably 20 scenarios on that game and besides the one I posted here on this thread, there were too many that had the home dog scraping out a cover by losing by only a field goal...this is one I'll kick myself for opting out of if the Harbaughs cover and I'll think I'm a genius if the Panthers figure some things out and make it a close game.

@Indigo999

 Thank you sir!  I wasn't able to find out anything either.  But from my own experience it's been fade the favs and shade the dogs.  It's one reason I'm fading Illinois this week.  Took a long hard look at Wake as well, but that Ole Miss offense scared me off.  

@Indigo999

 Big move on Illinois now-21 against central michigan . i did play central mich+21 but you took them earlier at +17.5 so maybe you'd want to also get +21.

A college angle....

18)  A NCAA FB away team in game number 3 with less than two wins on the season with a line between -14 and +14 who is averaging less than 100 yards rushing coming into their game.....29-55-4 (-4.4), 27-61 straight up (-8.6)......VERSUS LSU, Western Kentucky, Hawaii, Colorado

Query text...A and game number = 3 and t:wins<2  and 14>line>-14 and tA(rushing yards)<100

If our away team will be a dog their next game OR their present opponent (the home team) will be favored their next game this moves to 17-39 ATS (-5.5)

Query text.....A and game number = 3 and tA(rushing yards)<100 and 14>line>-14 and t:wins<2 and (n:F or on:D) 

19)  In the NFL a team who kicked more than 5 field goals their last game....8-20 ATS (-4.1), 13-15 straight up (-2.8).....VERSUS Steelers, 49ers

This moves to 2-10 ATS if our team is favored, 0-2 SUATS as an away favorite.

Query text.....p:FG>5

In thread #45 the second query text given is incorrect....the corrected version is below

Query text.....A and game number = 3 and tA(rushing yards)<100 and 14>line>-14 and t:wins<2 and (n:D or on:F) 

@Indigo999

 Do you like any of the CFL games today? you won yesterday and were 3-0 last week in cfl.

Personally I would lean towards Hamilton and Montreal, but the database says the opposite, so I will have no plays today in the CFL.

The early line for next week has Winnipeg a road favorite over Edmonton...if that holds and the Elks stay as underdogs I will be on Edmonton, BIG.

Good fortune to you this weekend....

@Indigo999

 Ok just thought i'd check with you about the CFL no need to force anything .