1st off the final score of the game really does not matter to the the linesmaker. There job is to post a number to try to get equal action for the casinos. LVSC set there lines and them send to the casinos that buy there service if the casinos were not making money this company would be out of the game.Talk to most books they will tell you that most players lose betting the nfl. You almost have to win 56 or 57 % to make a profit betting the nfl and if you bet small your playing for the action not money. I personally do a lot better betting the nfl,but i play overs almost 95% of the time. every season there are more and more new players,so the books are in good shape.The key to gambling is simple win more than you lose and save your winning for the bumps in the road.
THe Vegas lines makers are good because of the reacords they have of JOE and Jane Public !
They Know us better than we know ourseleves !
Every final spread in lined games like Football and Baskets is adjusted to public perception !
some spreads move 2 - 3 points and creates middling opportunities for many sharp players !
It's truly amazing tho that the actual % of time you lose to a spraed is actually the same % that lines makers hit within 3 points !
IF you have records from just past 3 years in NFL go back and look at every favorite who won a game but didnt cover !
esapecially the MNF games that rule appllies BET the team to win the game NOT lose and cover the spread !
average per year of favs not covering spreads in the 16 MNF games is 3 per year last season only one MNF favs did not cover spreads !
that one was saints @ San Fran in week 2 omg 1 cover dog out of 16 MNF games !
YES i do not count the 1st week MNF DH only the original 16 reg MNF games !
quote cts99 "The key to gambling is simple win more than you lose and save your winning for the bumps in the road."
the rest of your post was fine but theres morte to winning MONEY or should i say making MONEY bettng sports than this !
1st off the final score of the game really does not matter to the the linesmaker. There job is to post a number to try to get equal action for the casinos.
Good point Nutz. I've noticed that most people do bet faves. Check the consensus picks here on Covers. You can't really tell with MLB because of the ML but when it's football or basketball season you see the faves get the most action (college and pro). I also think people have a tendency to bet the over as opposed to betting the under in every sport (Football, basketball, and baseball). Anyone else notice that.
THe Vegas lines makers are good because of the reacords they have of JOE and Jane Public !
They Know us better than we know ourseleves !
Every final spread in lined games like Football and Baskets is adjusted to public perception !
some spreads move 2 - 3 points and creates middling opportunities for many sharp players !
It's truly amazing tho that the actual % of time you lose to a spraed is actually the same % that lines makers hit within 3 points !
IF you have records from just past 3 years in NFL go back and look at every favorite who won a game but didnt cover !
esapecially the MNF games that rule appllies BET the team to win the game NOT lose and cover the spread !
average per year of favs not covering spreads in the 16 MNF games is 3 per year last season only one MNF favs did not cover spreads !
that one was saints @ San Fran in week 2 omg 1 cover dog out of 16 MNF games !
YES i do not count the 1st week MNF DH only the original 16 reg MNF games !
quote cts99 "The key to gambling is simple win more than you lose and save your winning for the bumps in the road."
the rest of your post was fine but theres morte to winning MONEY or should i say making MONEY bettng sports than this !
I can't believe this asshole is still allowed to post here.
WTF mods … how many users odes this site need?!?!?
HEY hugh Jorgan 1st off YOU are a joke i saw YOUR videos on YOUTUBE last year and Without a shirt on and that funky hairstyle YOU looked like a Clown and talked like a moron about your Monday morning QB plays after games were over !
Everything i posted in my post is 100% accurate and proven over the decades !
SO stop calling ME an ASSHOLE because YOU are one too !
Maybe also YOU should learn to spell 1st also before calling another person a name !
how many users odes this site need?!?!?
what is an ODES ???
HEY hugh Jorgan 1st off YOU are a joke i saw YOUR videos on YOUTUBE last year and Without a shirt on and that funky hairstyle YOU looked like a Clown and talked like a moron about your Monday morning QB plays after games were over !
Everything i posted in my post is 100% accurate and proven over the decades !
SO stop calling ME an ASSHOLE because YOU are one too !
Maybe also YOU should learn to spell 1st also before calling another person a name !
how many users odes this site need?!?!?
what is an ODES ???
It is pretty easy to predict what the lines will ne for a given week in the NFL.
Before the lines are released each week, I examine the game and write in what I think the line for the game will be.
Not to hard to predict about 3 or 4 games exactly right and just miss on a few others. Lines are so tight in the NFL and I give props to the linesmakers.
I do the same exact thing.
The linemakers DO deserve all the props in the world.
The Home Team is 23-9 straight up, The Road Team is 9-23
After 3 weeks of preseason, according to my calculations.
40 of the 48 games the straight up winner was also the pointspread winner. That's 83%. There was 1 push on the spread. Only 7 games that the winner of the game didn't cover the spread.
Road Dogs are 13-24 ATS, Home Favs 24-13 ATS
Road Favs are 7-3 ATS, Home Dogs 3-7 ATS
1 Push ATS
Home Team is 32-16 straight up
Road Team 16-32 straight up
Overs have won 26 games
Unders have won 21 games
1 Push on the Total
I think most of you are wrong.
I think that games don't get fixed but Vegas sure does know the outcome of some games. What I mean by that is , their inside linemakers are sharp and probably once every 5 games they have a strong side or feeling that Team A is going to win tonight. Remember, they do this for a living, setting lines based on stats etc. What makes you guys think that they can't pick winners.
How many times have we seen huge money come in on a favorite yet their is reverse line movement? I know how I feel, I know that I am probably going to get fucked and 99% of the time I do.
But how many times in the same scenario does the line jump 1.5-3pts , lots , which means they think the favorite is going to win .
I know this isn't 100% accurate but most of the time, when Vegas thinks a team is going to win whether it be reverse line movement on a dog or a huge line movement in favor of a favorite, I bet they wint these games most of the time.
Even action , ya for 75% of the games I am sure when their experts tell them, coinflip game BUT after over 20 years of gambling, I tell you that they know who is going to win 25% of the time and make sure they get more money on the opposite side of who they think is going to win. How do they do this ? Easy, they decide when they want to move the lines or not.
I hate it when I see NE -4 vs Cleveland at Home and 75% of money is on NE and then the line drops to 3.5 and even 3. I just don't bet those anymore unless I see a very good capper on Cle to tail if my lean is NE.
Those of you who say they are trying to get 50 50 money all the time are completely wrong.
Based on your stats, the favored wins and covers only 43% of the time. 129/300
It's easy to pick who's gonna win- just pick the favored team but if you take the favored all the time then you will have a losing season. Even if you played ml.
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