A lot of research has concluded that turnovers are not consistent from season to season, which is why you see teams have such wild jumps in their interception totals, as well as the quarterbacks. Turnovers are very situational, and include a fair amount of luck. Not fumbling the ball is a skill. Recovering a fumble is chance. We looked at the teams that averaged less than 1.0 turnovers/game and how they did the following season.
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POSSIBLE FLUKE?
A lot of research has concluded that turnovers are not consistent from season to season, which is why you see teams have such wild jumps in their interception totals, as well as the quarterbacks. Turnovers are very situational, and include a fair amount of luck. Not fumbling the ball is a skill. Recovering a fumble is chance. We looked at the teams that averaged less than 1.0 turnovers/game and how they did the following season.
All 13 teams of course saw their turnovers increase the following season, and by an average increase of 11.1 turnovers. Their winning percentage fell from a combined .711 to .548, with every team but the 2002-03 Chiefs losing more games the following season. Five of the teams made the playoffs the next season. Given their lack of a successful track record, and after tying the record this season, it’s more than likely the 49ers will exceed 20 turnovers in 2012, and win fewer games.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance…
What does this mean for the 49ers in this year’s playoffs? It’s the playoffs. Competition is tougher. It’s one and done. Anything can happen. What has happened recently is the teams with few turnovers in the regular season have been losing in the postseason, usually in the first game, and with turnovers being part of the problem. Even the opponent this week, New Orleans, had some difficulty in their first game. The Saints only fumbled 6 times all season, which was by far best in the league. But they lost two fumbles in the first half, and one could have been a real turning point in the game, but a whistle blew it dead. The solution to that problem was to stop Detroit after each fumble, which they did. That’s really the big thing with turnovers. You can win with them as long as you avoid the critical ones, and limit their impact as much as possible. In his first playoff game, Alex Smith can’t afford any pick 6’s or fumbles that give the Saints a short field. But if the Saints are rolling offensively, he may feel the need to press in an attempt to keep up. For his career, Smith hasn’t been the best at protecting the ball. His updated turnover rate through 2011 is 4.28%.
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All 13 teams of course saw their turnovers increase the following season, and by an average increase of 11.1 turnovers. Their winning percentage fell from a combined .711 to .548, with every team but the 2002-03 Chiefs losing more games the following season. Five of the teams made the playoffs the next season. Given their lack of a successful track record, and after tying the record this season, it’s more than likely the 49ers will exceed 20 turnovers in 2012, and win fewer games.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance…
What does this mean for the 49ers in this year’s playoffs? It’s the playoffs. Competition is tougher. It’s one and done. Anything can happen. What has happened recently is the teams with few turnovers in the regular season have been losing in the postseason, usually in the first game, and with turnovers being part of the problem. Even the opponent this week, New Orleans, had some difficulty in their first game. The Saints only fumbled 6 times all season, which was by far best in the league. But they lost two fumbles in the first half, and one could have been a real turning point in the game, but a whistle blew it dead. The solution to that problem was to stop Detroit after each fumble, which they did. That’s really the big thing with turnovers. You can win with them as long as you avoid the critical ones, and limit their impact as much as possible. In his first playoff game, Alex Smith can’t afford any pick 6’s or fumbles that give the Saints a short field. But if the Saints are rolling offensively, he may feel the need to press in an attempt to keep up. For his career, Smith hasn’t been the best at protecting the ball. His updated turnover rate through 2011 is 4.28%.
But, Smith is facing the Saints, who had just 16 takeaways this season (31st in the league). Only the Steelers had fewer with 15, and they came up with one in Denver (albeit a big one in the fourth quarter). On Saturday, the 49ers will not be playing a defense that takes the ball away with any great success. Still, it could be just one big turnover that does San Francisco in. They’re riding the second longest streak without one, which is probably something you don’t want to go into the playoffs with. Though, if you want a counter-stat, the passing yardage leader is 0-45 at winning the Super Bowl. So there’s always that, Drew Brees. We’re not predicting the 49ers will turn it over five times this week (half their season total), but if they uncharacteristically do it 2-3 times, you should not be surprised. The precedent has been set.
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But, Smith is facing the Saints, who had just 16 takeaways this season (31st in the league). Only the Steelers had fewer with 15, and they came up with one in Denver (albeit a big one in the fourth quarter). On Saturday, the 49ers will not be playing a defense that takes the ball away with any great success. Still, it could be just one big turnover that does San Francisco in. They’re riding the second longest streak without one, which is probably something you don’t want to go into the playoffs with. Though, if you want a counter-stat, the passing yardage leader is 0-45 at winning the Super Bowl. So there’s always that, Drew Brees. We’re not predicting the 49ers will turn it over five times this week (half their season total), but if they uncharacteristically do it 2-3 times, you should not be surprised. The precedent has been set.
In the 2011-12 NFL playoffs, we see a lot of firsts that the team have already achieved or are looking to achieve:
The Green Bay Packers won 15 regular season games for the first time in franchise history.
The San Francisco 49ers clinched their first playoff berth since 2002.
The New Orleans Saints became the first 13-win team to play on Wild Card Weekend. Furthermore, they will need to win their first road playoff game to reach the NFC Championship Game.
The Atlanta Falcons made consecutive postseasons for the first time in franchise history, and Matt Ryan looks for his first playoff victory.
The Detroit Lions clinched their first playoff berth since 1999, and they can win their first playoff game since 1991.
The Houston Texans clinched their first ever playoff berth.
The Pittsburgh Steelers look to become the first defending Super Bowl loser since the 1993 Bills to reach the conference championship.
The Cincinnati Bengals can win their first playoff game since 1990.
In many ways, this could become quite a special postseason for the NFL. If the Green Bay Packers win the Super Bowl, we'll see only the third 18-1 champion. If somebody outside of the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC, the conference will go away from its big three (Patriots-Steelers-Indianapolis Colts) for the first time since 2002, when the Oakland Raiders won the conference.
Perhaps even better, if a certain team makes the run, we could see something truly rare and special happen in the playoffs. For teams like the Denver Broncos and New York Giants, the odds are greatly against them. We take a look at the chances of each team hoisting The Lombardi Trophy, beginning with the Giants and Broncos. Remember, under the guidelines of Mathletics, history will show us rare feats that are very unlikely to occur.
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BEST BETS FOR THE SUPERBOWL...........
In the 2011-12 NFL playoffs, we see a lot of firsts that the team have already achieved or are looking to achieve:
The Green Bay Packers won 15 regular season games for the first time in franchise history.
The San Francisco 49ers clinched their first playoff berth since 2002.
The New Orleans Saints became the first 13-win team to play on Wild Card Weekend. Furthermore, they will need to win their first road playoff game to reach the NFC Championship Game.
The Atlanta Falcons made consecutive postseasons for the first time in franchise history, and Matt Ryan looks for his first playoff victory.
The Detroit Lions clinched their first playoff berth since 1999, and they can win their first playoff game since 1991.
The Houston Texans clinched their first ever playoff berth.
The Pittsburgh Steelers look to become the first defending Super Bowl loser since the 1993 Bills to reach the conference championship.
The Cincinnati Bengals can win their first playoff game since 1990.
In many ways, this could become quite a special postseason for the NFL. If the Green Bay Packers win the Super Bowl, we'll see only the third 18-1 champion. If somebody outside of the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC, the conference will go away from its big three (Patriots-Steelers-Indianapolis Colts) for the first time since 2002, when the Oakland Raiders won the conference.
Perhaps even better, if a certain team makes the run, we could see something truly rare and special happen in the playoffs. For teams like the Denver Broncos and New York Giants, the odds are greatly against them. We take a look at the chances of each team hoisting The Lombardi Trophy, beginning with the Giants and Broncos. Remember, under the guidelines of Mathletics, history will show us rare feats that are very unlikely to occur.
Literally, these teams have a chance, as they are in the playoffs. However, the odds for these three teams to win the Super Bowl barely pass zero percent. Denver finished the year with a 8-8 record, which immediately shows where the problem lies.
No team made it as far as the conference championship with an 8-8 record. Worse yet, both the Broncos and Giants were outscored in the regular season. No team who was outscored in the regular season made it to the Super Bowl.
In fact, only the 1978 Oilers and 1996 Jaguars made it as far as the conference championship during the Super Bowl era. Futhermore, the Giants and Bengals share a 9-7 record, andno team has won a Super Bowl with a 9-7 record. Only the 1979 Rams and 2008 Cardinals made the big game with a 9-7 record.
Finally, with the Bengals and Texans squaring off in an all-rookie quarterback match-up, we'll see teams with virtually no chance to win the Super Bowl. No rookie starting quarterback made the Super Bowl. (If there's any consolation, rookie starting quarterbacks own a 6-9 record. Of the four rookies to win in the playoffs, all of them reached the conference championship. Look out, Baltimore or New England!) Perhaps on another day would the Broncos and Texans at least have some precedent for a championship. Both teams ended the season on a losing streak, and only the 1967 Packers and 2009 Saints won a Super Bowl with a losing streak entering the playoffs.
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BRONCOS, BENGALS, GIANTS, TEXANS HAVE NO CHANCE?
Literally, these teams have a chance, as they are in the playoffs. However, the odds for these three teams to win the Super Bowl barely pass zero percent. Denver finished the year with a 8-8 record, which immediately shows where the problem lies.
No team made it as far as the conference championship with an 8-8 record. Worse yet, both the Broncos and Giants were outscored in the regular season. No team who was outscored in the regular season made it to the Super Bowl.
In fact, only the 1978 Oilers and 1996 Jaguars made it as far as the conference championship during the Super Bowl era. Futhermore, the Giants and Bengals share a 9-7 record, andno team has won a Super Bowl with a 9-7 record. Only the 1979 Rams and 2008 Cardinals made the big game with a 9-7 record.
Finally, with the Bengals and Texans squaring off in an all-rookie quarterback match-up, we'll see teams with virtually no chance to win the Super Bowl. No rookie starting quarterback made the Super Bowl. (If there's any consolation, rookie starting quarterbacks own a 6-9 record. Of the four rookies to win in the playoffs, all of them reached the conference championship. Look out, Baltimore or New England!) Perhaps on another day would the Broncos and Texans at least have some precedent for a championship. Both teams ended the season on a losing streak, and only the 1967 Packers and 2009 Saints won a Super Bowl with a losing streak entering the playoffs.
1. You are what your record says. Most commonly, teams with a worse record are not as good as teams with a better record. Most commonly, the better teams win. Asking for that happen four times is quite the stretch. History and context will tell you that the 2010 Packers were argably the best six-seed ever, even before they won the Super Bowl. That's the outlier of the bunch, and they at least won 10 games. If an 8-8 or 9-7 team is to emerge as the champion, it will require a rare blend of factors to come together.
2. Rookie quarterbacks aren't as good as veteran quarterbacks. This should make some basics sense. Sure, not all vets are better than rookies, but it's a rarity for a given quarterback to have his best season as a rookie. Generally, rookie quarterbacks aren't 100% adjusted to NFL game speed, so how can one expect that rookie to beat the best defenses in the league, most of which generally make the playoffs.
3. Peak at the correct time. Perhaps this one theoretically doesn't illustrate the odds as much, but it still holds weight. Generally, when teams on a losng streak heading into the playoffs, they lost to teams that won't be playing into late January. Think about, only three other teams can make at least the conference championship if this cold team is to make the Super Bowl. What are the odds this team happens to play two or all three teams in the final few games? Think about it; two or three specific games out of 256 total regular-season games, in two or three consecutive weeks to end the regular season out of 17 total regular-season weeks. You don't need a mathematician to tell you those odds are low. Therefore, most teams simply aren't playing good football heading into the playoffs, and you can follow this up by revisiting the first theory.
Don't overthink it. Remember, we are simply playing the odds. As history shows, these four teams will need to win a metaphorical lottery to win Super Bowl XLVI.
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1. You are what your record says. Most commonly, teams with a worse record are not as good as teams with a better record. Most commonly, the better teams win. Asking for that happen four times is quite the stretch. History and context will tell you that the 2010 Packers were argably the best six-seed ever, even before they won the Super Bowl. That's the outlier of the bunch, and they at least won 10 games. If an 8-8 or 9-7 team is to emerge as the champion, it will require a rare blend of factors to come together.
2. Rookie quarterbacks aren't as good as veteran quarterbacks. This should make some basics sense. Sure, not all vets are better than rookies, but it's a rarity for a given quarterback to have his best season as a rookie. Generally, rookie quarterbacks aren't 100% adjusted to NFL game speed, so how can one expect that rookie to beat the best defenses in the league, most of which generally make the playoffs.
3. Peak at the correct time. Perhaps this one theoretically doesn't illustrate the odds as much, but it still holds weight. Generally, when teams on a losng streak heading into the playoffs, they lost to teams that won't be playing into late January. Think about, only three other teams can make at least the conference championship if this cold team is to make the Super Bowl. What are the odds this team happens to play two or all three teams in the final few games? Think about it; two or three specific games out of 256 total regular-season games, in two or three consecutive weeks to end the regular season out of 17 total regular-season weeks. You don't need a mathematician to tell you those odds are low. Therefore, most teams simply aren't playing good football heading into the playoffs, and you can follow this up by revisiting the first theory.
Don't overthink it. Remember, we are simply playing the odds. As history shows, these four teams will need to win a metaphorical lottery to win Super Bowl XLVI.
GOOD CHANCE OF WINING THE SUPERBOWL (SAINTS, PACKERS, RAVENS, PATRIOTS, 49ERS)
It's much more than that. In fact, you should expect one of these five teams to emerge as NFL Champions. Of course, there's different levels of expectations to give these teams.
The Saints finished the regular season with a -3 turnover margin. Six teams won the Super Bowl despite a negative turnover margin. Look at it this way: although the Saints couldn't win the turnover battle against the average opponent, they didn't regularly lose the turnover battle. If the Saints can keep the turnover battle at least tied against the 49ers, then can win their first road playoff game. However, they may need that critical battle to upset the Packers.
The Ravens didn't do themselves any favors by finishing a pedestrian 4-4 on the road. Only four Super Bowl champions finished the regular season with a non-winning road record. The 1979 Steelers didn't need to play a road playoff game, yet the 1997 Broncos won two and the 2006 Colts won one. The Ravens would play a maximum one road game, and that would be the AFC Championship Game in New England, if it happened.
The 49ers relied much of the year on a sterling turnover margin, which finished at +28. While that might be great, stew on the meader +44 yard differential for the 49ers. Only two Super Bowl champions, the 1980 Raiders and 2001 Patriots, had a yard differential worse than +50. For comparison, of the previous four playoff teams in the Super Bowl era to sport a turnover margin of at least +25, only the 1983 Redskins won a playoff game. Theoretically, this suggests that these teams fed on the weaker pray with takeaways and later couldn't get the job done when they couldn't rely solely on takeaways.
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GOOD CHANCE OF WINING THE SUPERBOWL (SAINTS, PACKERS, RAVENS, PATRIOTS, 49ERS)
It's much more than that. In fact, you should expect one of these five teams to emerge as NFL Champions. Of course, there's different levels of expectations to give these teams.
The Saints finished the regular season with a -3 turnover margin. Six teams won the Super Bowl despite a negative turnover margin. Look at it this way: although the Saints couldn't win the turnover battle against the average opponent, they didn't regularly lose the turnover battle. If the Saints can keep the turnover battle at least tied against the 49ers, then can win their first road playoff game. However, they may need that critical battle to upset the Packers.
The Ravens didn't do themselves any favors by finishing a pedestrian 4-4 on the road. Only four Super Bowl champions finished the regular season with a non-winning road record. The 1979 Steelers didn't need to play a road playoff game, yet the 1997 Broncos won two and the 2006 Colts won one. The Ravens would play a maximum one road game, and that would be the AFC Championship Game in New England, if it happened.
The 49ers relied much of the year on a sterling turnover margin, which finished at +28. While that might be great, stew on the meader +44 yard differential for the 49ers. Only two Super Bowl champions, the 1980 Raiders and 2001 Patriots, had a yard differential worse than +50. For comparison, of the previous four playoff teams in the Super Bowl era to sport a turnover margin of at least +25, only the 1983 Redskins won a playoff game. Theoretically, this suggests that these teams fed on the weaker pray with takeaways and later couldn't get the job done when they couldn't rely solely on takeaways.
The Patriots defense took the brunt of criticism in New England. Save for a Week 17 showing from the Green Bay Packers, the Patriots would've set the record for most passing yards allowed. However, the 26 passing touchdowns allowed weighs with much more importance. Only two teams, the 1988 49ers and 1998 Broncos, won the Super Bowl after allowing at least 25 passing touchdowns in the regular season. We at Cold, Hard Football Facts like to believe that certain passing stats apply to all eras, but this isn't truly one of them. In a year where we saw three of the eight 40-touchdown passing performances from a quarterback, perhaps it's not such a terrible thing anymore to allow that many passing touchdowns.
Note the four other playoff teams with at least 25 passing touchdowns allowed: Atlanta (25), Detroit (26), New York (28) and Green Bay (29).
Speaking of Green Bay, what does their 15-1 season mean? Of the previous four 15-1 teams, two won the Super Bowl (1984 49ers and 1985 Bears) and two lost in the conference championship game (1998 Vikings and 2004 Steelers). At the least, expect a Green Bay-hosted NFC Championship Game. However, remember that the two conference championship losers were defeated by 14-2 teams.
Pick and choose how you'd like it, but it seems like the three top offenses are in the best shape. In this pass-happy season, the Packers and Patriots shouldn't have to worry much about the passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, a negative turnover margin is more than manageable for the Saints. Believe it or not, it will be the defensive-minded Ravens and 49ers who have the outside legitimate shots in this postseason. However, it's more likely that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Drew Brees will finish off a stellar passing season with another championship ring.
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The Patriots defense took the brunt of criticism in New England. Save for a Week 17 showing from the Green Bay Packers, the Patriots would've set the record for most passing yards allowed. However, the 26 passing touchdowns allowed weighs with much more importance. Only two teams, the 1988 49ers and 1998 Broncos, won the Super Bowl after allowing at least 25 passing touchdowns in the regular season. We at Cold, Hard Football Facts like to believe that certain passing stats apply to all eras, but this isn't truly one of them. In a year where we saw three of the eight 40-touchdown passing performances from a quarterback, perhaps it's not such a terrible thing anymore to allow that many passing touchdowns.
Note the four other playoff teams with at least 25 passing touchdowns allowed: Atlanta (25), Detroit (26), New York (28) and Green Bay (29).
Speaking of Green Bay, what does their 15-1 season mean? Of the previous four 15-1 teams, two won the Super Bowl (1984 49ers and 1985 Bears) and two lost in the conference championship game (1998 Vikings and 2004 Steelers). At the least, expect a Green Bay-hosted NFC Championship Game. However, remember that the two conference championship losers were defeated by 14-2 teams.
Pick and choose how you'd like it, but it seems like the three top offenses are in the best shape. In this pass-happy season, the Packers and Patriots shouldn't have to worry much about the passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, a negative turnover margin is more than manageable for the Saints. Believe it or not, it will be the defensive-minded Ravens and 49ers who have the outside legitimate shots in this postseason. However, it's more likely that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Drew Brees will finish off a stellar passing season with another championship ring.
Congratulations to the 2011 New Orleans Saints, owners of several key NFL records, 13 hard-fought victories … and one of the toughest postseason roads any great regular-season team in history.
Yes, the Saints are the best No. 3 seed in NFL history heading to the postseason. Yet, if they want to win the Super Bowl this year, they’ll need to beat the explosive Detroit Lions at home, win at San Francisco, probably win at Green Bay, then win the big game against a tough AFC opponent. Ouch.
No. 3 seeds haven’t fared too well over the years – by our figuring, only the 1988 49ers, and 2006 Colts have won it all as the No. 3 seed in either conference.
While there have been some extremely good teams that finished No. 3 in their conference – including the Super Bowl winners – only New Orleans can boast a 13-win season.
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ARE THE SAINTS DOOMED WITH THE 3 SEED
Congratulations to the 2011 New Orleans Saints, owners of several key NFL records, 13 hard-fought victories … and one of the toughest postseason roads any great regular-season team in history.
Yes, the Saints are the best No. 3 seed in NFL history heading to the postseason. Yet, if they want to win the Super Bowl this year, they’ll need to beat the explosive Detroit Lions at home, win at San Francisco, probably win at Green Bay, then win the big game against a tough AFC opponent. Ouch.
No. 3 seeds haven’t fared too well over the years – by our figuring, only the 1988 49ers, and 2006 Colts have won it all as the No. 3 seed in either conference.
While there have been some extremely good teams that finished No. 3 in their conference – including the Super Bowl winners – only New Orleans can boast a 13-win season.
Not only do the Saints top the list record-wise, they also have the second-best point differential (+13.0 PPG, behind only 1976 Steelers at +14.6). They set the NFL records for most yards (7,474), passing yards (5,347) and first downs (416). Drew Brees set records for completions (468) and percentage (71.6). Darren Sproles set the all-purpose yards record with 2,696.
It’s also hard to imagine heading to the postseason hotter than New Orleans. They’ve got eight straight wins, including three in a row by 22, 29 and 28 points. They have averaged – AVERAGED! – 517.5 yards a game over the last six weeks.
Amazing. Incredible. Spectacular.
But then, the caveat – road trip! The Saints have played four road playoff games in franchise history, and lost all four, and all three of their losses this year came on the road.
Do the Saints have what it takes to overcome history, trends and some extremely good competition in the postseason?
We’ll see. But it’s sure been fun to watch them get here.
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The top No. 3 seeds (post-merger)
2011 Saints 13-3 +208 point differential
2004 Colts 12-4 +171
2003 Colts 12-4 +111
2006 Colts 12-4 +67 (won Super Bowl)
1972 Raiders 10-3-1 +117
1974 Steelers 10-3-1 +116
1976 Steelers 10-4 +204
1973 Cowboys 10-4 +179
1976 Rams 10-4 +161
1975 Colts 10-4 +126
1974 Redskins 10-4 +124
1991 Oilers 11-5 +135
1991 Saints 11-5 +130
1992 Vikings 11-5 +125
Not only do the Saints top the list record-wise, they also have the second-best point differential (+13.0 PPG, behind only 1976 Steelers at +14.6). They set the NFL records for most yards (7,474), passing yards (5,347) and first downs (416). Drew Brees set records for completions (468) and percentage (71.6). Darren Sproles set the all-purpose yards record with 2,696.
It’s also hard to imagine heading to the postseason hotter than New Orleans. They’ve got eight straight wins, including three in a row by 22, 29 and 28 points. They have averaged – AVERAGED! – 517.5 yards a game over the last six weeks.
Amazing. Incredible. Spectacular.
But then, the caveat – road trip! The Saints have played four road playoff games in franchise history, and lost all four, and all three of their losses this year came on the road.
Do the Saints have what it takes to overcome history, trends and some extremely good competition in the postseason?
We’ll see. But it’s sure been fun to watch them get here.
Prime fair play for putting inall this analysis but what this all this point to? Who should people bet?
MACK....thats been my point all along...these stats mean absolutely nothing.....especially turnover stats.....not even nostradamus can predict who will fumble/recover...throw an interception either...another useless stat posted that u cant use cause its the unknown who will have more turnovers...so why even post about it,lol
guys if u basing tomm and sundays plays on past stats/trends u might as well flip a coin,its same 50-50 chance!!.....capp the game with your heads not your heart and what u read about the last 10-20 years
here is perfect example of past meaning absolutely nothing.....last year pats beat jets 45-3 in season....i u can see that really helped them vs jets in playoffs,lol....throw stats in garbage!!!...use your noggens people!!
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Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:
Prime fair play for putting inall this analysis but what this all this point to? Who should people bet?
MACK....thats been my point all along...these stats mean absolutely nothing.....especially turnover stats.....not even nostradamus can predict who will fumble/recover...throw an interception either...another useless stat posted that u cant use cause its the unknown who will have more turnovers...so why even post about it,lol
guys if u basing tomm and sundays plays on past stats/trends u might as well flip a coin,its same 50-50 chance!!.....capp the game with your heads not your heart and what u read about the last 10-20 years
here is perfect example of past meaning absolutely nothing.....last year pats beat jets 45-3 in season....i u can see that really helped them vs jets in playoffs,lol....throw stats in garbage!!!...use your noggens people!!
MACK....thats been my point all along...these stats mean absolutely nothing.....especially turnover stats.....not even nostradamus can predict who will fumble/recover...throw an interception either...another useless stat posted that u cant use cause its the unknown who will have more turnovers...so why even post about it,lol
guys if u basing tomm and sundays plays on past stats/trends u might as well flip a coin,its same 50-50 chance!!.....capp the game with your heads not your heart and what u read about the last 10-20 years
here is perfect example of past meaning absolutely nothing.....last year pats beat jets 45-3 in season....i u can see that really helped them vs jets in playoffs,lol....throw stats in garbage!!!...use your noggens people!!
Umm...I had the Jets ML & spread in that playoff game & I posted it here on covers..............& dont try to tell me trends & stats mean nothing when I saw you over in Mack's thread saying the trends he posted were awesome & provided the reasons you were playing the games...........you're a hypocrite..............
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Quote Originally Posted by dawizard2011:
MACK....thats been my point all along...these stats mean absolutely nothing.....especially turnover stats.....not even nostradamus can predict who will fumble/recover...throw an interception either...another useless stat posted that u cant use cause its the unknown who will have more turnovers...so why even post about it,lol
guys if u basing tomm and sundays plays on past stats/trends u might as well flip a coin,its same 50-50 chance!!.....capp the game with your heads not your heart and what u read about the last 10-20 years
here is perfect example of past meaning absolutely nothing.....last year pats beat jets 45-3 in season....i u can see that really helped them vs jets in playoffs,lol....throw stats in garbage!!!...use your noggens people!!
Umm...I had the Jets ML & spread in that playoff game & I posted it here on covers..............& dont try to tell me trends & stats mean nothing when I saw you over in Mack's thread saying the trends he posted were awesome & provided the reasons you were playing the games...........you're a hypocrite..............
TEAMS SCORING MOST FIELD GOALS GOING INTO THE PLAYOFFS
David Akers had a wonderful season, and by all accounts is a great guy. He set the NFL record for field goals in a season (44), and has four of the top 50 scoring seasons in league history.
So, huzzah for Mr. Akers.
But in general, teams that kick field goals as their bread and butter don’t win the big ones.
Eleven teams have had 35+ field goals in a season and made the playoffs, and only one of them wound up in the Super Bowl. That team was the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who had a few advantages over this San Francisco.
First, they had maybe the greatest defense of all time. Second, they were matched up in the playoffs with good-not-great teams (Denver, Oakland, the Giants). Those teams could all score … but not like New Orleans or Green Bay.
But at least there’s a precedent with Baltimore. The other 10 on the list are a depressing bunch.
1993 Raiders: Div. round loss to Buffalo
1996 Panthers: Conf. champ loss to Green Bay
1996 Colts: WC loss to Pittsburgh
1998 Vikings: Conf. champ loss to Atlanta
1999 Dolphins: Div. round loss to Jacksonville
2003 Rams: Div. round loss to Carolina
2003 Colts: Conf. champ loss to NE
2005 Giants: WC loss to Carolina
2007 Titans: WC loss to San Diego
2008 Giants: Div. loss to Philadelphia
Three points are nice, but against potent playoff offenses you’ve got to score touchdowns. The average Super Bowl winner scores right around 31 points, and the 49ers only did it three times all year.
True "IN GENERAL"; but 4 of the 11 made it to the conf. championship round. We are still in the divisionals for S.F.-N.O. and N.O. scored LESS than 31pts 8 times, 5 on the road,including STL and T.B. I'M with UTEP on this one, (YOU TAKE EM POINTS),but get the hook if you can.
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Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
TEAMS SCORING MOST FIELD GOALS GOING INTO THE PLAYOFFS
David Akers had a wonderful season, and by all accounts is a great guy. He set the NFL record for field goals in a season (44), and has four of the top 50 scoring seasons in league history.
So, huzzah for Mr. Akers.
But in general, teams that kick field goals as their bread and butter don’t win the big ones.
Eleven teams have had 35+ field goals in a season and made the playoffs, and only one of them wound up in the Super Bowl. That team was the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who had a few advantages over this San Francisco.
First, they had maybe the greatest defense of all time. Second, they were matched up in the playoffs with good-not-great teams (Denver, Oakland, the Giants). Those teams could all score … but not like New Orleans or Green Bay.
But at least there’s a precedent with Baltimore. The other 10 on the list are a depressing bunch.
1993 Raiders: Div. round loss to Buffalo
1996 Panthers: Conf. champ loss to Green Bay
1996 Colts: WC loss to Pittsburgh
1998 Vikings: Conf. champ loss to Atlanta
1999 Dolphins: Div. round loss to Jacksonville
2003 Rams: Div. round loss to Carolina
2003 Colts: Conf. champ loss to NE
2005 Giants: WC loss to Carolina
2007 Titans: WC loss to San Diego
2008 Giants: Div. loss to Philadelphia
Three points are nice, but against potent playoff offenses you’ve got to score touchdowns. The average Super Bowl winner scores right around 31 points, and the 49ers only did it three times all year.
True "IN GENERAL"; but 4 of the 11 made it to the conf. championship round. We are still in the divisionals for S.F.-N.O. and N.O. scored LESS than 31pts 8 times, 5 on the road,including STL and T.B. I'M with UTEP on this one, (YOU TAKE EM POINTS),but get the hook if you can.
spread in that playoff game & I posted it here on covers..............& dont try to tell me trends & stats mean nothing when I saw you over in Mack's thread saying the trends he posted were awesome & provided the reasons you were playing the games...........you're a hypocrite..............
first off it dont matter if u had jets or not,thats not the point...point was that the last meeting trends means shit!!....u understand that now.....as far as me following any i dont ...if u were paying attention u would see it clearly states in my posts that these are for people who follow stats/trends which i dont......unless the trend is perfect or has 1 loss than throw them in the garbage in my opinion......
HEYY PRIME LETS SEE HOW YOUR TRENDS/STATS STACK UP IN THE 4 GAMES THIS WEEK VS MY PLAYS.....WE ALREADY KNOW U GOT NINERS,AND I GOT SAINTS......LETS SEE HOW THE REST SHAPE OUT....GOOD LUCK PAL U ALREADY 0-1 WITH NINERS!!
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PRIME SAYS.....
Umm...I had the Jets ML &
spread in that playoff game & I posted it here on covers..............& dont try to tell me trends & stats mean nothing when I saw you over in Mack's thread saying the trends he posted were awesome & provided the reasons you were playing the games...........you're a hypocrite..............
first off it dont matter if u had jets or not,thats not the point...point was that the last meeting trends means shit!!....u understand that now.....as far as me following any i dont ...if u were paying attention u would see it clearly states in my posts that these are for people who follow stats/trends which i dont......unless the trend is perfect or has 1 loss than throw them in the garbage in my opinion......
HEYY PRIME LETS SEE HOW YOUR TRENDS/STATS STACK UP IN THE 4 GAMES THIS WEEK VS MY PLAYS.....WE ALREADY KNOW U GOT NINERS,AND I GOT SAINTS......LETS SEE HOW THE REST SHAPE OUT....GOOD LUCK PAL U ALREADY 0-1 WITH NINERS!!
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