Help to determine who the public is betting on

Hey guys, I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help me figure out about public betting. I recently found a site that breaks down pretty thoroughly who the public is betting on and it refreshed frequently.  I am not sure of the forum rules here so I will not post the site.  But it has a pie graph and a line graph that shows what percentage of the public is for or against the spread.  Here are my questions.

#1. If the graph shows that 84% of the public is betting on the Colts -3 and 16% is on the Bengals +3, does that mean if I bet against the public and took the Bengals +3, would I technically be betting "with" Vegas?

#2.  If the line came out at -3 and has gone up to -5, does that mean that the favorite has been bet a lot and caused the line to go up?  If that is the case then would betting on the underdog +5 at that point be betting "with" Vegas since the public is obviously on the Favorite?

I may be way off in this thinking but I have NEVER paid attention to who the majority of the public is on or line movement for that matter.  I never really understood how to factor those two things into my analysis when trying to pick my games.  How much weight should those things have when trying to come up with my own lines and such?  I use power ratings for a base, then look at injuries and pretty much go from there.  I would love to understand how to use the public betting information and line moves to my advantage.  Thanks in advance if you are able to give me some insight and how to use this information!

-Chris

Look at it this way.... 90% of the public was on 9ers -3 yesterday and they ended up winning by 14 points. Don't waste your time looking where the public money is.. Cap the GAME not the line.

^^^^^Well said.I've always thought being concerned about what the public thinks is a lazy way of capping.Line movement is always a concern to me.I play about 10% of my plays when the line posts.Vegas is known for not moving a line at times in fear people will unload on that side.RG3 s last game vs Washington is a good example..

The real money split, or money volume at a bookmaker is the best kept secret in the business. These consensus numbers mean just nothing. Consensus numbers from public sites are based on picks in open contests from people who don't bet real money on it. You could find a consensus number of 85% on one team, but the bookie could have a 50/50 money split and win his normal margin on the juice - we will never know.

My advice: Break down the games and make a decision based on what you capped, not on what any consensus numbers or line moves probably tell you.

 

Well thanks for all the responses guys.  Guess I was actually doing something right by not focusing a lot of my time on the public.  I appreciate the input and advice. Good Luck to you guys this week!

Example: On Sunday, the consensus numbers were between 70 and 80 percent on the Packers, but yet the line moved from -3 to almost a pickem. I would guess that some big money came in on the Packers and oddsmakers moved the line to keep their 50/50 split and collect the juice. Service picks from touts have been 29-4 in favor of Miami when I checked before gametime. When so many guys release the same side, their customers can move a line.

Very well said

Look at it, consider it but never blindly bet against the public.  

Screw the public or the house. Go with your guts is what I say. Covers forum is usually split evenly and there are a lot of people with good logic behind their bets. IE: Rams should have covered last night due to being at home, divisional game, strong defense vs the run game, an unknown variable in the QB. vs 49ers who are the superior team on all aspects but is in inconsistent to some level and plays down/up to their opponent.

 Sounds legit right?? Many people would like the superior team despite that inconsistency.

Its VERY easy to find who the public is. If you work, go around work asking who they thing will win the game. Thats the public. Ppl who look at the game without knowing anything about it other than the team name.

Wow.  Every response was a good one.  (I'm actually surprised.)

This thread should be required reading here on Covers, before you are allowed to sign up for a new account.

I will add one thing.

Teams like the Patriots or the Packers, for many years the Cowboys, the Steelers, etc, are often called "public" teams.  They are popular teams.  By that I mean your average Joe likes to bet on them, and give the points.  (These teams are favored more often than they are underdogs.)

Teams like the Jags or the Panthers or the Texans or the Lions are not bet on nearly as much.  For that reason, you can often get a little bit more "value" than you otherwise could by betting on these teams. 

The bookmakers really do want an equal amount of action on both sides.  (Yes, they do.)  That's how they earn their money.  They don't earn money on your losing bets!  They earn their money off of the vig.  If you lose a bet someone else, probably that same week, won the exact same amount from them.  They earn their money on the vig.

And knowing ahead of time that your average Joe will be betting on these popular teams, they inflate the line... just a tad.  They do this because they are trying to draw an equal amount of action on the non popular team.

The line is not nor has it ever been a game prediction.  It is a number hoping to generate equal action on both sides.  This is why if you can handicap a game properly, you can find games where the line is "off" (maybe the better team isn't even favored) and bet accordingly.

You can't be on the same side as "Vegas" since some people are 84%, others are 16% and Vegas is the other 10% that you can't be on.

Yes, I'm sure that is exactly what he means.

That's exactly what is happening.  When a particular book moves its lines, it's because it is getting too much action on one side. The book now wants to make it a little bit more attractive to bet on the other side, thereby balancing its books just a little bit more.  If the line was -3 and then eventually became a pick'em, that's exactly what was happening.... They wanted to now make the game more attractive to bet on Green Bay and help balance their books.

A good book does NOT want to gamble.  They won't stay in business very long if they did.  They want to earn their money with the juice, and thus attempt to get equal action on both sides.  (Which isn't of course always possible).  So yes, they often DO root for one side.  Of course, often they have enough action to show a profit either way, it's just that their profit will be much more if a certain team wins, hence they find themselves rooting for that team.

Sharkysden is correct.  Few NFL games end up with even action and the casinos don't even try to get it 50/50 anymore. 

Since about 1995, the vig business model was thrown out at one sportsbook after another and now Vegas hopes to be on the right side of all those unevenly bet games. 

For local ma-and-pa illegal bookies, they are still closer to the even action vig business model.

Last week, week7 it's seem a lot public go with the Defending Supebowl Champs. But I end up with Boys+8.5 and I'd took the winless Jags+6 from othe Vegas books. Because I saw that there's 76% of those public goes with the Titanz with Charlie Whitehurst. That were my brain pop up that's I should take dog road and home dog. Because I think that a lot of points and it's a fishing hook for public to bet on the team have more public consesus

Do your own home work and play smart on your chart. Instead listen to the Vegas and public. Trust yourself do not concentrate on public hearing.