Quote Originally Posted by byharleyjames:
Bodio,
Love your insight and I'd like to hear your take on some of these stats/trends. Don't know if you pay any attention to these but to me, can't be overlooked:
I read these stats on another site and thought they would be valuable to consider today before making a play on the Chi/Sea game.....
QBs making their first playoff start are 5-19 straight up since 2003. A little further investigation reveals that they are also 1-10 ATS since 2002. Cutler himself is 1-8 ATS when favored by 6 or more and 0-3 ATS when favored by -9 
Now throw in the fact that Chicago hasn't been favored by more than 6' all year and that teams coming off straight up wins in the playoffs as underdogs the following week of 7 or more are 6-1 ATS since 2002 and I think there may be some value in taking the 10' points here.
With those kind of stats staring ya down do you really trust Jay Cutler to lead us to the promised land ATS today?
Thoughts?
Hey BHJ,
I handicap teams not trends. Chicago hasn't been favored by more than 6 because this team has been under-valued the whole season. Even at -10 I feel they're undervalued. The reason is because in my opinion the Bears are a better team than the Saints right now. And the Saints were -11 point favorites on the road facing the same team. Most will probably disagree as they still attach the 'super-bowl champs' next to the Saints team but that team is different from the one that won it all last year.
As to your point that playoff-virgins have done terribly in the past, that is true, but I'm not sure how many of those teams had the quality of a defense and Special Teams that this Bears squad possess. Not many if any in my opinion. This is a completely different game. Historical trends won't have any impact on the outcome. (Heck, if they did, then I'd wait for 10 blacks to hit at the roulette table and then unload ALL of my life-savings on red 
)
Since you like trends, let me give you one that I found (again, I don't put much 'stock' in it but it is interesting): Seattle is 0-9 ATS away off a HOME win over the last 3 seasons. This is a recent trend and it's a 100% 'angle' here.
In any case, to answer your question though I would say this. If 'trends' are a big part of your handicapping, then you should by all means either stay away from this game or take Seattle (Unless you like the 100% 'trend' I dug up above :)) Sure backing 'playoff-virgin' QB's hasn't been a profitable scenario in the past. I don't handicap based on trends, since there are some many trends out there that sometimes it's too time consuming and too difficult to figure out which ones are relevant and which ones aren't. Also, if you dig hard enough, you can find 'trends' that favor either team. (A team with a starting QB who attended Vanderbilt making his first playoff start, on a team with a top 5 D and top ST unit, with an African-American Head Coach, playing in a under 30 degree weather, in the second half of January, coming off a first round bye, facing a playoff team that is under .500 for the season, is 1-0 ATS since 1930....hehe...Well, at least I hope that's what this trend will be after today's game)
Good luck buddy. BEAR DOWN!
any leans Jets @ Pats and total o/u 
, and Monsters of Midway "D"
Bears in a BLOWOUT, besides seahags = vikings, remember that game
Played at under 20'
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