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#1
Final 2010 NFL regular season: 58-44 @ 57% for + $9,600
NFL-P '10-'11 Record: 3-1 @ 75%
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#1: Chicago Bears -10 (GaMe Of ThE wEeK!)
Breaking down this game, the first thing I looked at was the ‘relative’ strength of each team. Basically I like to compare each offense and defense against the averages given up/allowed by their opponents. It provides a ‘relative’ description of whether a specific team is –over or –under performing with respect to their opponents.
Seahawks O: 20.6 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 22.1
Variance: -1.5
Seahawks D: 26.1 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.3
Variance: -4.8
Total Variance: -6.3
On offense, Seattle is a below-average team. Against defenses that have allowed on average 22.1 ppg, they’ve been able to score only 20.6. It’s even worse defensively, where the Seahawks have given up 26.1 points per game to teams averaging 21.3. It’s even worse on the road, where the offense produced 16.7 ppg while giving up 29.2 ppg on defense. Let’s take a look at the Bears:
Bears O: 20.9 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 22.1
Variance: -1.2
Bears D: 17.9 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.6
Variance: +3.7
Total Variance: +2.5
When looking at the Bears for the whole 2010, they are just like the Seahawks, a below-average team offensively. But here’s where a more in-depth analysis helps. If you look at this team after their week 8 bye, not counting the meaningless week 17 game @ Green Bay, Bears offense has actually averaged 26 points per game in going 7-1 during that span (Their only loss was to the Patriots in a ‘blow-out’ fashion.) By comparison, Seahawks have averaged 20.6 ppg in their last 7. Hmmm…. Bears improved from 20.9 ppg ave for the whole season to 26 ppg in their last 7 games, while the Seahawks have stayed the same. This is a critical fact here, since the expectation for every NFL team is to improve as the season goes on. Bears O has done that, while the Seahawks have not. Defensively, Bears are a very strong team and the ‘relative’ variance of +3.7 proves that.
So let’s compare the ‘relative’ variances here. Bears are +2.5 as a team, while the Seahawks are -6.3. That’s a total of +8.8 difference. Bears are clearly the better team (I’m sure everyone knows this already) Their D is a #4 scoring D and #9 overall. They are a #3 team in the league in takeaways and allow only 34.7% conversion rate on 3rd downs, good for 6th best. It’s this suffocating defense that is going to give this one-dimensional Seattle team plenty of problems. The reason Seattle is one-dimensional is because they can’t run the ball (Lynch’s performance last week was a ‘fluke’ as he’s a very limited running back) They are ranked #31 out of 32 teams in the NFL at 89 yards rushing per game, and 29th in the league averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. Sure, Seattle will try to establish the run here, but it won’t work. Bears are #2 in the league in allowing 90.1 rypg and 6th in allowing 3.7 yards per attempt. Making Seattle one-dimensional, will allow Julius Peppers and Co. to attack Hasselbeck, put pressure on Seattle’s mediocre Offensive line, and control the flow of the game. I expect the Seahawks to find themselves in a lot of 3rd and long situations, and I’ve already explained how unsuccessful teams have been this year in converting those against the Bears.
Now I do expect the Bears to have success offensively against this ‘soft’ Seattle D that allows almost 30 points per game on the road. Seattle has faced the following ‘playoff’ teams this year:
@ Chicago 23-20 W
NY Giants 7-41 L
@ New Orleans 19-34 L
Kansas City 24-42 L
Atlanta 18-34 L
Not counting the Bears game (I’ll get back to that one), the losing margin was 20.75 points per game for the Seahawks. Interestingly, Seattle lost by 15+ points in all 9 of their losses this year. None of those games were close. The trouble with Seattle’s D is that they cannot compete against teams that have ‘balance’ on offense. And the Bears are one of the most balanced teams in the 2nd half of the season. Actually, they are #6 most balanced team in the last 9 weeks of the season. They have had 258 rushing attempts and 276 passing attempts in that time. In addition, the Bears rushed for 100+ yards in 8 of their last 9 games, compared to only twice in their first 7. People still have this perception that the Bears do not run the ball at all, and Cutler just makes 7-step drops all day long. Well, this was the Bears O early in the season. Not now. Right now, this is a very balanced offense that is averaging 26 points per game after their bye-week with Forte averaging 120 yards from scrimmage and 5.8 yards per carry over the final 6 games of the season. Forte will be a big factor on Sunday and I expect the Bears to put up points on the board in this one.
NFL-P '10-'11 Record: 3-1 @ 75%
===================================
#1: Chicago Bears -10 (GaMe Of ThE wEeK!)
Breaking down this game, the first thing I looked at was the ‘relative’ strength of each team. Basically I like to compare each offense and defense against the averages given up/allowed by their opponents. It provides a ‘relative’ description of whether a specific team is –over or –under performing with respect to their opponents.
Seahawks O: 20.6 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 22.1
Variance: -1.5
Seahawks D: 26.1 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.3
Variance: -4.8
Total Variance: -6.3
On offense, Seattle is a below-average team. Against defenses that have allowed on average 22.1 ppg, they’ve been able to score only 20.6. It’s even worse defensively, where the Seahawks have given up 26.1 points per game to teams averaging 21.3. It’s even worse on the road, where the offense produced 16.7 ppg while giving up 29.2 ppg on defense. Let’s take a look at the Bears:
Bears O: 20.9 ppg
Opp Def Ave: 22.1
Variance: -1.2
Bears D: 17.9 ppg
Opp Off Ave: 21.6
Variance: +3.7
Total Variance: +2.5
When looking at the Bears for the whole 2010, they are just like the Seahawks, a below-average team offensively. But here’s where a more in-depth analysis helps. If you look at this team after their week 8 bye, not counting the meaningless week 17 game @ Green Bay, Bears offense has actually averaged 26 points per game in going 7-1 during that span (Their only loss was to the Patriots in a ‘blow-out’ fashion.) By comparison, Seahawks have averaged 20.6 ppg in their last 7. Hmmm…. Bears improved from 20.9 ppg ave for the whole season to 26 ppg in their last 7 games, while the Seahawks have stayed the same. This is a critical fact here, since the expectation for every NFL team is to improve as the season goes on. Bears O has done that, while the Seahawks have not. Defensively, Bears are a very strong team and the ‘relative’ variance of +3.7 proves that.
So let’s compare the ‘relative’ variances here. Bears are +2.5 as a team, while the Seahawks are -6.3. That’s a total of +8.8 difference. Bears are clearly the better team (I’m sure everyone knows this already) Their D is a #4 scoring D and #9 overall. They are a #3 team in the league in takeaways and allow only 34.7% conversion rate on 3rd downs, good for 6th best. It’s this suffocating defense that is going to give this one-dimensional Seattle team plenty of problems. The reason Seattle is one-dimensional is because they can’t run the ball (Lynch’s performance last week was a ‘fluke’ as he’s a very limited running back) They are ranked #31 out of 32 teams in the NFL at 89 yards rushing per game, and 29th in the league averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. Sure, Seattle will try to establish the run here, but it won’t work. Bears are #2 in the league in allowing 90.1 rypg and 6th in allowing 3.7 yards per attempt. Making Seattle one-dimensional, will allow Julius Peppers and Co. to attack Hasselbeck, put pressure on Seattle’s mediocre Offensive line, and control the flow of the game. I expect the Seahawks to find themselves in a lot of 3rd and long situations, and I’ve already explained how unsuccessful teams have been this year in converting those against the Bears.
Now I do expect the Bears to have success offensively against this ‘soft’ Seattle D that allows almost 30 points per game on the road. Seattle has faced the following ‘playoff’ teams this year:
@ Chicago 23-20 W
NY Giants 7-41 L
@ New Orleans 19-34 L
Kansas City 24-42 L
Atlanta 18-34 L
Not counting the Bears game (I’ll get back to that one), the losing margin was 20.75 points per game for the Seahawks. Interestingly, Seattle lost by 15+ points in all 9 of their losses this year. None of those games were close. The trouble with Seattle’s D is that they cannot compete against teams that have ‘balance’ on offense. And the Bears are one of the most balanced teams in the 2nd half of the season. Actually, they are #6 most balanced team in the last 9 weeks of the season. They have had 258 rushing attempts and 276 passing attempts in that time. In addition, the Bears rushed for 100+ yards in 8 of their last 9 games, compared to only twice in their first 7. People still have this perception that the Bears do not run the ball at all, and Cutler just makes 7-step drops all day long. Well, this was the Bears O early in the season. Not now. Right now, this is a very balanced offense that is averaging 26 points per game after their bye-week with Forte averaging 120 yards from scrimmage and 5.8 yards per carry over the final 6 games of the season. Forte will be a big factor on Sunday and I expect the Bears to put up points on the board in this one.
0
I predicted 30-10. Bears roll.
....this is by far the least talked about game on Covers bud. If ur looking for a potential bloodbath u may wanna sign up for the Packers on Sat...
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