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GIANTS @ BROWNS: It's back to capping basics with this one. Road chalk can burn in HELL.

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Posted: #51
Scal, always like your writeup's.  Thank you!

What's your thoughts on the Mia/49r's?  Seems to almost be the same game. 

Miami's won 5 in a row.  Mostly to .500 or less teams.  They beat pitt, after knocking Ben out.

my book has SF +8 (-110).  
 
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Posted: #52
Captain with all do respect I dont even know Scal, I would never bet what another person puts in a blog. If im going to lose my money im not going to do it on someone else because they like a play. lol lol. however if you would like my plays id be happy to put them up on here for you. Also Captain dont look now but that line has dropped down to +6.5 now off a key number 7 . Vegas is begging you to take NYG my guess is sharp money came in this morning on Cleveland. But hey what do I know lol lol
 
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Posted: #53
Great write up as usual Scal, was leaning Browns as well.  Making the play official, scared money don't make no money, let's do this.  BOL
 
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Posted: #54
Scal, the record is fantastic but this game is going to very difficult to stay inside the number. A few points

1) Last two weeks Rashad Jennings averaging 119 yards from scrimmage. The running game has been better overal last 3-4 weeks and will continue today.

2) The weather in Cleveland is great today. 48 degrees, Sunny and less than 9 mph winds. Eli will be able to throw in all 4 quarters unlike last week when only 2 qtrs they were with the wind. I was at the game, it was awful.

3) Josh McCown has thrown 2 int's in each of the 3 games he started this year. He is a turnover machine and the Giants defense is playing as well as anyone in the league right now.  I see the Giants winning the turnover battle today which they are 12-1 last 2 years when they actually win the turnovers.

4) Cleveland won't be able to run against the Giants, forcing them into long 3rd downs and subsequently punts. The more possessions Eli gets, the more effective he is. He learns what the defense is doing and adjusts. 

5) Giants have allowed 6 points combined in the 4th qtr the last 4 games so that doesn't bode well for a back door cover. 

Obviously I'm a homer, but the Giants are a lot better than people are giving them credit for. 
 
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Posted: #55
AGREED - Browns may get their first win of the season today!!
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I'm telling you folks, points are very important. Not in EVERY case but in many cases.

You better justify EVERY SINGLE POINT you lay. If you take points, you need only justify the side.

If you lay them you have to justify the side AND the points. That's hard to do! I've been doing this for many years. It is very hard to do.


Look at UMass RIGHT NOW. NOTHING to play for against Hawaii.

They are a TERRIBLE CFB program and a 2 win team. They schedule a trip to Hawaii for their final game. Many thought it was a Thanksgiving vacation. No one knew.

Hawaii is fighting for a bowl with 5 wins and needs to get to 6.

EVERYTHING to play for.

This is a ROAD dog traveling thousands of miles and has body clock issues vs. a team that's home who desperately wants a bowl.

Current score? Umass 33 Hawaii 40

The line is???? 7.5.

Well Umass just tied it up 40-40 as I typed. Unreal.

And points are at even more of premium in the NFL where millionaires do not play with the same do-or-die intensity college players do. They have tens of millions and sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars in investment to protect. That affects these scores.

We get points here at home with the Browns = valuable. 



FYI, UMass went straight from BYU to Hawaii and never went home so they probably adjusted fairly well rather than going from Mass to Hawaii...  

Hawaii will only make a Bowl game with a 6th win if there aren't enough other 6 win teams to fill spots, due to the fact they played a 13 game regular season so nothing is guaranteed for them.


Browns?   Good god man, this one can go south so easy on you.  You're betting on the worst franchise in professional sports.  There will likely be more empty seats and Giants fans than Browns fans here today....   I saw pairs of tickets going for $40 posted online.  

Good luck... you'll need it  
 
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Posted: #57
Like 07 said above, Giants have been very efficient running the ball the last month..... vereen has been on IR all year , Bobby Rainey and Paul Perkins both have been huge contributors...... the makeshift offensive line has been working ...... eli manning factor + Cruz shep odb...... 


Good luck with your play but i don't see it happening unless a backdoor cover 

 
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Posted: #58
Not to mention Giants defense has been YuGE.... number 1 in RZ DeF
 
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Posted: #59
I bet against the Browns and Niners nearly every week and no reason to stop.  You have no idea how bad the OLine is.  Players on the team joke how bad it is.  Zero run game with a flaky backup.  They will go 0-16.  Zero home atmosphere, fans go to watch the train wreck and have a few laughs.  Every single article on the game mentions how the Giants never win easy and the players are tired of hearing it.  This is the most important thing you are missing.  Today seems like the perfect time for a dominant win.  Life long Giants fan so I get the entire write up but the Browns are a different animal of futility.  Everything has to go right just to stay close.  
 
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Posted: #60

       The Pied Piper.          

 
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Posted: #61
I took Giants ML and bought the point to -6.5 no way this Cleveland team can win or cover 7 points here.

You can put all the stats down you want but the X factor here is in the minds of the CLEVELAND players they know they are 0-11 and they know they are losers and that effects their play.
When you have nothing to play for what's the point.

They are done and should be bet against every game for the rest of the season.
 
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Posted: #62
Cleveland will be 0-16 this season!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #63
What happen last last night SDS loses to Wyoming next game decided not to PLAY?
 
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Posted: #64
Scal
Been blindly following you on everything since early season when we both lost on Penn State v Temple which was a game I loved but loved even more after reading your post.
Luck was not on our side that day but that is football as turnovers did us in.
It was then that I found you and realized how in depth your analysis was and from then on Ive bet everything you post and you have made me $$$
Thanks for all you do and sharing your thoughts.
Like a Boy Scout your motto is 'be prepared'. Clearly it's what you need to do to have best chance of success at anything in life.

That said I can't bet Browns. Losers lose and I've found trying to catch a falling knife is a bad proposition.
As a NYG fan I know from where you come
Giants do play up/down to competition
Bad Eli plays down to competition
Giants have been lucky in this win streak

But Gisnt D is coming together. They spent a ton of $$ on upgrades this year and it looks like the D may be coming together. JPP playing would be a big negative to the play.
Giants on a bit of a roll and if you look at the remaining schedule after this game, it's brutal
At Pitt, at Phil, at wash, Dallad home and I think Detroit (much improved)
This is a huge game for Giants.
I won't get them simply based on respect for you and the points you made.

Hope Giants win small for your cover.
Thanks for everything
You have made me money
 
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Posted: #65
Scary to put money on a losing streak team( been making money for fading them) but today it even scarier, 1 of the best capper in this forum( in my opinion) like them. 
Ps: if u been followed Scal pick, u should be winning. 
 
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Posted: #66
If there's a good spot to play the brownies it's this week. I have made a ton betting against them the 2nd half. I will making a wager on the Browns but may play a wager against them 2nd half if it goes south 
 
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Posted: #67
Nice write up, but Vereen is out for the season.  Their RB's are Perkins and Jennings.
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by richwins81:

Nice write up, but Vereen is out for the season.  Their RB's are Perkins and Jennings.


Well not that it matters for this game but they hope to make Vereen their designated for return player in a couple weeks.
 
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Posted: #69
Scal
Just heard an interview with the great Vin Scully. When asked what he attributed his success to he quoted Sir Laurence Omivier
My success comes from a humility to prepare and the confidence to bring it on

I see that in you
Continued success my friend
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Newton's Law just said this in another thread:Week after
week guys trying to look like a genius picking the
brownies It wasn't said to me but I want to stress
this:I could give a shi* about looking sharp. A win is
a win is a win. And your bankroll looks exactly the
same when you take the Patriots or when you take
Rutgers.This game was fully capped. And believe me, I looked at the other home dogs (Bucs, Jets, Bears, Texans) and this was the best of the 5.


As I mentioned in your college discussion Scal I believe you are a rare gem that can win consistently over time so as an objective observer I will look closely at this game as you are not a dart thrower like the rest of the degenerates in this forum.
 
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Posted: #71
Scal, brilliant analysis
 
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Posted: #72
was leaning Browns also, and this has sealed it. Giants are the worst 7-3 team I've ever seen. Can't wait for all the NY Midgets fans to complain about this pick.
 
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Posted: #73

Once again on it with you.

Good luck

 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by bettorjon:

here you go scal

Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 
Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. 
Browns are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record

Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record

still like cle? 


Of course I still like Cleveland and of course they can win. Those numbers above are miniscule compared to what I have capped and won with.

In fact I wish those numbers said 0-40, 0-60 for Cleveland and 40-0 for the Giants.

The more those numbers increase, the more it heightens my interest and the intensity of the team with which I take a side.

I took Rutgers on a 17 game losing streak. 32 game Big East losing streak. They won by 25 over Minnesota.

Purdue is always on massive losing streaks SU and ATS and I've taken them several times this year to win and cover. I've taken them LAYING points and won (this is capping death personified).

So to answer your question, yes the Browns can win I still like them and the numbers above are not even a wart on the fanny of losing streaks I've jumped into.






 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by josbran:

I watched Giants have a run through practice yesterday at their practice field before they left for the flight to Cleveland. This was at 10:45 AM. Buses were waiting to take them to Newark for flight. I have never seen the Giants do that this season so they are really taking this game very serious. I go to the Meadowlands racetrack every Saturday and pass by their facility at the same time and this is the first time I've seen them working before a road game. Giants roll,  will sack QB at least 5 times.

They were working before a road game because they DIDN'T have enough practice because of the Holiday! They are actually practice deficient, not putting in extra.
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