Follow, fade, or watch; I will make add 41%+ to your BR in next 4 days..

4 day commitment to following my NCAAFB & NFL plays (Nov 24 – Nov 27) and increasing your total bankroll by a minimum of 41.67%.  Here is the link to the original promise/post: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101191699

Write up for GB @ DETROIT:

GB Packers -6.5  @ Detroit Lions / O/U 55.5:

·       Packers Pros/Cons:

·       The Packs pass attack is second to none; many argue the Saints have more passing yrds, but add in 9 more pass attempts per gm, 6 more int’s, 8 less TD’s and there you have it.  The Pack ave 9.7 ypa,  completing 72%, and a 6.2 to 1 TD to Int ratio.   All of this equates one of the most lethal passing attacks to ever grace the professional grid iron.

·       If you tip the scale that heavily to one side (passing game), there has to be a deficit on the other (rushing).  GB has the 24^th ranked running game in the NFL, and they average 3.9 ypc.  Hence, their rushing attempts make up only 45%  of their offensive plays. 

·       Detroit is ranked 28^th in yards allowed passing, so we know GB will be able to pass against them with fair success, but we have to consider Detroits ability to get to the QB sporting 27 sacks this season, while only 8 teams this yr has allowed more sacks than GBs 25.  Detroit will get to Rogers more than he is used to this game.  Breaking the ‘sack game’ down a bit more… (ranking GB’s opponents in defensive sacks) NO 20^TH  , CAROLINA 22^ND , CHICAGO 26^TH , DENVER 8^TH , ATLANTA 28^TH , STL 10^TH , MINNESOTA 1, SD 26^TH , MINNESOTA 1, AND TB 30^TH .. Ave sack ranking is 17.2, but if you take Minnesota’s 2 games out of the equation the ave would then be 21.25 (basically the bottom 35% of the league, and yet GB still gives up more sacks than the average team). In Minnesota’s 2 games, they sacked Rogers a total of 6 times (24% of all the sacks GB gave up for the season in 2 games). 

·       GB vs strong pass rushing teams (like Detroit): GB averages 55% pass attempts for the season, but in Minn @ GB, they only attempted 50% pass plays.  In GB @ Minn they attempted 53.6% pass plays. 

·       GB vs opportunistic secondary’s:  Chicago is tied for 2^nd (behind GB) in the NFL with 15 int’s.  GB attempted 57% pass plays in this match up.  Was this because Rogers was tempting this defense, or was it because of the Bears stingy run defense?  GB faced Atlanta who only has 11 int’s but has a stellar 2^nd ranked run defense (but is ranked a dismal 28^th in defensive sacks) and GB passed in that match up a whopping 66%. 

·       GB on the road: in Lambo field, GB had (pass attempts) 34 pg, but on the road they average 32.8.  This difference may seem insignificant to you, but is it?  The fact of the matter is that GB tends to pass a bit less on the road, and vs teams with strong pass rushes.

·       Detroits vs high % passing team:  Carolina 365 pass and 259 rush attempts (58.4% passing)… in this game Cam Newton had 1 TD and 4 Ints by attempting 38 passes.  He was sacked only once, but hurried/chased/rushed quite a bit (especially in the 2^nd half).   Look at Denver (a high % rushing O) since Tim Tebow took over:  Tebow has lost one game…to Detroit (lost 45-10), and that is the ONLY game that Denver (w/Tebow) has attempted more passes than rushes (56.5% passing plays)

·       Now look at Detroit vs teams that run a high % of rushing plays against them: Chicago 35 run plays and 19 pass plays: Chicago won 37-13, TB ran 20 times and passed 28 times (2 tds/2 ints) and lost 26-35, Atlanta passed 34 times and ran 31 times (much more balanced) and won 23-16, SF passed 32 / ran 29 (once again, more balanced) and won, Dallas pass 47 times and ran only 27 times and LOST (no balance), the only team Detroit beat that had a run heavy % was KC.

·       Injuries: Starks is a questionable, so Grant will probably get at least half the carries even if Starks does play.  Greg Jennings shows a shin injury, but common opinion is that it is a knee issue.  Nelson can carry the load, but will probably see a fair share of double coverage (I don’t see Nelson having a big day in this one), …

Game plans:  McCarthy passes less vs teams with strong pass rushers, as well as on road games in general.  Vs Detroit, he knows they thrive on teams playing fast (pass).  He should want to slow this down by revolving the offense off of the run and short passes into the flat to condense the defense, and then break off a few big plays down field.  In addition, Detroit has a nasty reputation, and it is doubtful that McCarthy is going to want Rogers in unnecessary contact simply to play into detroits strength.  McCarthy also would want to use a certain element of surprise (running the majority in the early game)  I anticipate GB running more in the early game.  I also see Detroit trying to slow the game down to keep rogers off of the field (at least early on providing the game is a one score game)

Sharps vs Squares: the squares are in total agreement on the Over, and the Sharps are holding this total at 55.5 by betting the Under.  Not that the sharps win every game, but give me the choice on siding with my choice; the Sharps win that one every time.  The Squares are (in average houses) @ 76% on the Over—this situation creates a ‘go against or pass’ scenario….

PLAY: GB / DETROIT FIRST HALF UNDER 28  for 4 units (though I recommend holding on this until just before game time.  I think we can get 28.5 or better in this one by game time)

Play: GB / DETROIT UNDER 55.5 2 UNITS (THOUGH HOLDING UNTIL GAME TIME COULD YEILD US AS GOOD AS A 57 OR BETTER)  VERY IMPORTANT THAT YOU STAY CLOSE @ HALFTIME FOR A MIDDLE/HEDGE PLAY ON THIS ONE….. IF NOT POSSIBLE, THEN DO NOT PLAY THE GAME TOTAL.

Current play (this is the current line for MGM Mirage, and NOT simply the best line that WAS available for this game since the line came out as most covers posters offer https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=100 :

Previous plays for this 4 day onslaught of the Books:

N/A

PLEASE…NO CRY BABIES:   I WILL GET YOU TO +25 UNITS IN THIS 4 DAY PERIOD, BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NOT WIN EVERY GAME, NOR DO WE NEED TO.  I WILL GET US THERE…. JUST FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS AND COUNT YOUR EXTRA XMAS MONEY ON MONDAY…

Follow, fade, watch, or ignore; it is your money, and all I am doing is helping you increase it, or make you wish you had….your call my bruthas…. Happy holiday weekend 2 all, and BoL in all your plays…

 bol