The Texans have the much stronger run defense. They have allowed 171 rushing yards, or 85.5 per game. Opponents average only 3.9 yards per carry against them.
The Colts have allowed 354 rushing yards, or 177 per game. They are giving up 5.4 yards per carry. That means Houston should try to run the ball early and often. If the Texans run successfully, they can avoid long third downs and control the clock.
Indianapolis must find a way to slow Houston's running game. The Colts also need a strong performance from Jonathan Taylor because running against Houston will be harder than running against most teams.
Neither offense has been great, but Houston has the better defensive matchup. The Texans should be able to run against Indianapolis, while the Colts may struggle to run against Houston.
Turnovers could keep the game close. Still, Houston's advantage against the run should be the biggest factor.
Final score prediction: Texans 24, Colts 20.
Hou -1'
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2-2 ATS
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The Texans have the much stronger run defense. They have allowed 171 rushing yards, or 85.5 per game. Opponents average only 3.9 yards per carry against them.
The Colts have allowed 354 rushing yards, or 177 per game. They are giving up 5.4 yards per carry. That means Houston should try to run the ball early and often. If the Texans run successfully, they can avoid long third downs and control the clock.
Indianapolis must find a way to slow Houston's running game. The Colts also need a strong performance from Jonathan Taylor because running against Houston will be harder than running against most teams.
Neither offense has been great, but Houston has the better defensive matchup. The Texans should be able to run against Indianapolis, while the Colts may struggle to run against Houston.
Turnovers could keep the game close. Still, Houston's advantage against the run should be the biggest factor.
Both teams have played solid run defense. New England allows slightly fewer rushing yards per game, but Jacksonville allows fewer yards on each carry.
The Jaguars have allowed 191 rushing yards on 50 carries, or 3.8 yards per carry. The Patriots have allowed 188 yards on 45 carries, or 4.2 yards per carry. That means Jacksonville has been a little more effective on each rushing attempt.
New England's defense is still the strongest part of its team. The Patriots allow only 260 total yards and 8 points per game. Jacksonville allows 332 yards and 15 points per game.
I expect a close, defensive game. New England's defense should keep the score low, but Jacksonville has major advantages in turnovers and third-down conversions. The Jaguars are also playing at home.
If Jacksonville protects the football, it should get enough scoring chances to win.
Final score prediction: Jaguars 23, Patriots 17.
Jags -3
Both teams have played solid run defense. New England allows slightly fewer rushing yards per game, but Jacksonville allows fewer yards on each carry.
The Jaguars have allowed 191 rushing yards on 50 carries, or 3.8 yards per carry. The Patriots have allowed 188 yards on 45 carries, or 4.2 yards per carry. That means Jacksonville has been a little more effective on each rushing attempt.
New England's defense is still the strongest part of its team. The Patriots allow only 260 total yards and 8 points per game. Jacksonville allows 332 yards and 15 points per game.
I expect a close, defensive game. New England's defense should keep the score low, but Jacksonville has major advantages in turnovers and third-down conversions. The Jaguars are also playing at home.
If Jacksonville protects the football, it should get enough scoring chances to win.
The Raiders have the stronger run defense. They allow about 101 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. The Saints allow about 137 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
This is important because Las Vegas can attack the Saints on the ground. A strong running game would help the Raiders avoid difficult third downs. The Saints may have a harder time running, so they will probably need their passing game to create big plays.
I expect a close game. The Raiders have the better turnover numbers and run defense, but the Saints are much better on third down and have home-field advantage. If New Orleans avoids turnovers, its offense should stay on the field long enough to win.
Final score prediction: Saints 27 Raiders 20.
Saints -4
Run-defense comparison
The Raiders have the stronger run defense. They allow about 101 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. The Saints allow about 137 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.
This is important because Las Vegas can attack the Saints on the ground. A strong running game would help the Raiders avoid difficult third downs. The Saints may have a harder time running, so they will probably need their passing game to create big plays.
I expect a close game. The Raiders have the better turnover numbers and run defense, but the Saints are much better on third down and have home-field advantage. If New Orleans avoids turnovers, its offense should stay on the field long enough to win.
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