EASY ML PARLAY!! Or which team blows it?

Ml parlay of chargers, packers, lions, and rams is FREE MONEY?? If risk $1000, you’ll win $750.

OR…. Which team blows it? Can’t see any of them losing to the trash teams

Seems too easy 

Chargers, lions, colts ,broncos

275 gets a $1000 ...

What do you think

Broncos losel

Colts lose

Why don’t add okc as well

The Colts' game @ Pittsburgh is a landmine.
 That line is suspicious as hell and stinks to high heaven. "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark" (Willie the Bard) and in the city of Pittsburgh. 

Seems too easy, but as the old saying goes, "Any given Sunday..."

@Leslock1978

 That’s a great idea!! That’ll bring the ML parlay to 1:1! It’s got to be FREE MONEY right??

@spicycurry

 I did the same but added the Ravens

for some reason one of those heavy favourites gonna lose .

hope I am wrong

@spicycurry

You must have just started sports betting, there is no such thing as free money or a "lock".

@spicycurry

not to sure about chargers

@Peezy9166

 easy on the broncos. They barely cant get a win on the road this season.

forget the lines for a second, just do the math on win loss record

 lets say each home team has 85% chance to win and the one road team has a 75% chance to win

probability that all 4 hit is .85*.85*.85*.75 -> which gives you a 46% chance of all 4 outcomes occuring

not terrible odds at all, you may very well hit.. but its far far far from free money and your returns are 75 cents on the dollar for a trade that has sub 50% chance of hitting

Quick update, I asked Grok to take the lines and calc implied probabiities
Rams 91,7%
GB 90.7%
Lions 82.5%
chargers 81%

This gives you a 55.5% implied chance of all 4 hitting.. so its certainly better..  but again 55.5% shot to collect 75 cents on the dollar isnt a LT winning proposition, its a track to ultimately head to 0

and this also assumes that spreads are not inflated for heavy public faves.. if actual behind the scenes lines are a bit tighter, the implied probabilities go down

anyways, you have a real shot at this one but its far from a certainty...

and taking 4 heavy heavy faves where ATS is stacked to fave and MLs in each case is like 95% of bettors on the fave is basically betting against books in 4 separate games which is a very difficult position to put yourself in.. 

someone has to build those catherdrals in vegas eh

just my 2 cents.. best of luck mate

Rams.

@C-70Blues

 How can rams lose at home to a backup QB’s first NFL game?!?

Turnovers.

I went to great detail to give you mathematical edge why your plays dont work and then give you the matter of fact that youre against the books on 4 games out of 4

you dont even see me, you just keep saying, which one loses

keep helping vegas build its cathedrals with your square ass cheese bruh.. cause you got no future in this game

just facts

This should be the post of the year.

Everything in this post is why most people dont win at gambling; they dont understand the odds, and the advantage that the house makes you pay up for huge ML favs.

I will look @ 1 game only, and while i cant explain it any better than Titus did, I will explain why i was on Carolina yesterday.

@TJZags598

 The packers were -1000 at my book. That gave them, according to the book, a 90.91% implicit break even Point. That is, in order for you, the gambler to break even, GB needed to win 90.7% of the time. to break even. Here is the math on $100 in bets:

Win 90.91% x 100= +9091

Lose 9.09% X -1000=-9090

Net=1

I calculated that Carolina had a 25% chance to win the game yesterday. They were 4-4 entering the game, and  not facing any major injuries to skew odds. I do detailed projections on probabilities, much like an Ai model.

Based on 25% chance to win, the money line should have been -300 on Green Bay. as follows:

Win 75% X100=+7500

Lose 25% x 300=-7500

Net=0

My book was offering Carolina +650. The Money line on Green Bay, SHOULD have been -300. You had to pay -1000. That a huge vig for the book. You had to pay up WAY too much to take Green Bay. As Titus said, the book is inflation the large ML favs to make you pay up.

It was a no brainer to take Carolina at +650, as i was getting TWO times the odds i should have to take them. The bet was too my advantage. This was just 1 piece of the 4 leg parley the OP presented. The parley, you are drastically OVER paying on odds for little return, and a recipe for long term failure.

ML parley only work to your advantage when you do your own calculations on odds, and look for an advantage, and the lowest multiple, or + money.. I have Carolina as a huge advantage to the offered odds. My projections had Green Bay winning by 6, which was lower that a TD, which meant you were over-paying by 8 points. The book cant fluff the money lines on pickem games too much because sharps will take advantage; when you get to bigger spreads, where sharps stay away from, the house loves to up the vig to enormous odds; make you "pay up" to take the perceived huge favorite.