Half on spread half on ml . Bills haven't won a road playoff game since 1993 at Miami. 0-6 in their last 6 attempts. Trap narrative? I'll fall for it. If Bills use more 2 TE looks and use James Cook in the passing game they'll beat Jacksonville. Jax is weak against TE, and also while I love Jax defense and how aggressive they are, it could come to bite them they're also one of the most penalized teams, I'm sure Josh Allen will be begging for some flags a roughing the passer might come into play. Give me the Bills to win ugly today. I personally have the Bills vs Texans meeting in the AFC title might as well roll with it
Sip on that plus money honey!
1
Sunday morning play:
Bills +1.5(-108) *small*
Bills ml +106 *small*
Half on spread half on ml . Bills haven't won a road playoff game since 1993 at Miami. 0-6 in their last 6 attempts. Trap narrative? I'll fall for it. If Bills use more 2 TE looks and use James Cook in the passing game they'll beat Jacksonville. Jax is weak against TE, and also while I love Jax defense and how aggressive they are, it could come to bite them they're also one of the most penalized teams, I'm sure Josh Allen will be begging for some flags a roughing the passer might come into play. Give me the Bills to win ugly today. I personally have the Bills vs Texans meeting in the AFC title might as well roll with it
Most will talk about 49ers soft schedule, while they may be somewhat true but the NFC West really was the best division this season and you may be surprised to learn that the Eagles schedule is softer! Niners are also no strangers to Lincoln Financial Field, this will be their 4th straight trip since 2021 and are one of the few teams that have had success in this stadium. They've won 2 out of their last 3 here with the loss being the playoff blowout where Purdy got knocked out of the game, his first road playoff game. Interestingly, that's where his second road playoff game will begin.
Now when I look at both offenses they are similar, running back is the centerpiece of their offense. I give the advantage to the Niners here, Christian McCaffrey is having a nice bounce back season, over 2100 all purpose yards while Saquon Barkley is having a bit of a down year but still decent season however just 1400 all purpose yards. Niners rush defense is better than the Eagles at defending the RB they give up 7th most receiving yards to RBs. I think the Niners won't have much trouble moving the ball, #1 on 3rd downs vs Eagles defense #21.
Eagles offense on the other hand are tough to watch at times and it shows why their drives stall alot, #24 on 3rd downs. Their key to success will be picking on the Niners secondary. The Eagles don't pass much but I think they will need to here in addition to utilizing Barkley. Once the Eagles get into the RedZone they are tough to stop thanks to their tush push. This will be a good test for a Niners RedZone defense ranked #12.
What gives the Niners the edge is their special teams, with the Eagles getting almost a TD without Lane Johnson I feel like that is a little too many points. Give me the Niners to make it close and perhaps even an outright upset! Supposedly the ref is Philly native and the Eagles have more penalties than the Niners by a wide margin. We'll see if there is agenda or not in this game
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Most will talk about 49ers soft schedule, while they may be somewhat true but the NFC West really was the best division this season and you may be surprised to learn that the Eagles schedule is softer! Niners are also no strangers to Lincoln Financial Field, this will be their 4th straight trip since 2021 and are one of the few teams that have had success in this stadium. They've won 2 out of their last 3 here with the loss being the playoff blowout where Purdy got knocked out of the game, his first road playoff game. Interestingly, that's where his second road playoff game will begin.
Now when I look at both offenses they are similar, running back is the centerpiece of their offense. I give the advantage to the Niners here, Christian McCaffrey is having a nice bounce back season, over 2100 all purpose yards while Saquon Barkley is having a bit of a down year but still decent season however just 1400 all purpose yards. Niners rush defense is better than the Eagles at defending the RB they give up 7th most receiving yards to RBs. I think the Niners won't have much trouble moving the ball, #1 on 3rd downs vs Eagles defense #21.
Eagles offense on the other hand are tough to watch at times and it shows why their drives stall alot, #24 on 3rd downs. Their key to success will be picking on the Niners secondary. The Eagles don't pass much but I think they will need to here in addition to utilizing Barkley. Once the Eagles get into the RedZone they are tough to stop thanks to their tush push. This will be a good test for a Niners RedZone defense ranked #12.
What gives the Niners the edge is their special teams, with the Eagles getting almost a TD without Lane Johnson I feel like that is a little too many points. Give me the Niners to make it close and perhaps even an outright upset! Supposedly the ref is Philly native and the Eagles have more penalties than the Niners by a wide margin. We'll see if there is agenda or not in this game
@Digitalkarma Which way you leaning night game...really looking at Chargers ML...will be on Niners...just too many points...
Leaning Chargers as well. Doing a last minute or hour handicap lol. Dogs possibly going for a clean sweep again altho Eagles winning as fave won't surprise me still a lot of pts to me based on my principles
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:
@Digitalkarma Which way you leaning night game...really looking at Chargers ML...will be on Niners...just too many points...
Leaning Chargers as well. Doing a last minute or hour handicap lol. Dogs possibly going for a clean sweep again altho Eagles winning as fave won't surprise me still a lot of pts to me based on my principles
Patriots had a lot of success this season which is commendable but Drake Maye is going to have a face a top 10 defense in his first playoff game. The closest they have played against a good defense is perhaps only the Bills. Otherwise, it's been a pretty lightweight schedule of below average defenses.
It really is up to the Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense to break this game open. Chargers offense has been inconsistent this season due to their O-line. They have had some unfortunate injuries in that position. This is an area that Pats can exploit, but fortunately the Chargers have a decent rushing attack with Omarion Hampton who will play today to keep Pats defense honest. Chargers will need to find a way to boost their confidence scoring in the redzone(ranked 29th) and will get their chances against a Patriots RedZone defense ranked 30th. Patriots are faves for a reason with a favorable home edge. I like Chargers to play scrappy and keep this game close with a chance to win outright.
Chargers +3.5(-112)
Chargers ml +162 *small*
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Patriots had a lot of success this season which is commendable but Drake Maye is going to have a face a top 10 defense in his first playoff game. The closest they have played against a good defense is perhaps only the Bills. Otherwise, it's been a pretty lightweight schedule of below average defenses.
It really is up to the Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense to break this game open. Chargers offense has been inconsistent this season due to their O-line. They have had some unfortunate injuries in that position. This is an area that Pats can exploit, but fortunately the Chargers have a decent rushing attack with Omarion Hampton who will play today to keep Pats defense honest. Chargers will need to find a way to boost their confidence scoring in the redzone(ranked 29th) and will get their chances against a Patriots RedZone defense ranked 30th. Patriots are faves for a reason with a favorable home edge. I like Chargers to play scrappy and keep this game close with a chance to win outright.
2nd game: 49ers +5.5(-112) 49ers ml +199 *small* No Lane Johnson is huge to me, let's see if I can get my thoughts in order while watching the Bills game lol
Onto the next round
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
2nd game: 49ers +5.5(-112) 49ers ml +199 *small* No Lane Johnson is huge to me, let's see if I can get my thoughts in order while watching the Bills game lol
Texans -3 to close it out , dogs usually go 3 or 4 covers per year in wildcard round, 5 would be outrageous but who knows we'll find out tommorow. Will gather my thoughts for this game if time allows
Sip on that plus money honey!
1
5-3 in postseason play
Texans -3 to close it out , dogs usually go 3 or 4 covers per year in wildcard round, 5 would be outrageous but who knows we'll find out tommorow. Will gather my thoughts for this game if time allows
5-3 in postseason play Texans -3 to close it out , dogs usually go 3 or 4 covers per year in wildcard round, 5 would be outrageous but who knows we'll find out tommorow. Will gather my thoughts for this game if time allows
Nice!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
5-3 in postseason play Texans -3 to close it out , dogs usually go 3 or 4 covers per year in wildcard round, 5 would be outrageous but who knows we'll find out tommorow. Will gather my thoughts for this game if time allows
The narrative has been set. Texans have never won a road playoff game in their playoff history: 0-6!! No doubt playing in Foxboro, Baltimore, and Kansas City against Brady, Mahomes, Lamar/Flacco, the chances were close to nil. Then we have the Steelers home success on Monday nights. 23 straight wins and 11 with Tomlin, and haven't lost a Monday night game since 1991!
One of the many sources that are peddling this information aren't counting the home loss to Washington from the Covid season in 2020. No crowds I understand. Still that's an impressive trend nevertheless however all these games were in the regular season. This will be the first MNF home game for the Steelers in January. Pittsburgh is a notorious tough place to play in the playoffs, just ask the Ravens but not impossible. Some of the unlikeliest teams have got a win at Pittsburgh, Baker Mayfield and the Browns. Blake Bortles and Trevor Lawrence with the Jags. Whose to say CJ Stroud and the Texans can't either? Tomlin is 2-3 SU in his last 5 home playoff games and 6-4 SU overall. By comparison, Bill Cowherd had an 7-5 SU playoff record at home.
Most importantly can Texans cover the -3 line? Initial reaction says "no" based on these popular trends which favor Steelers as a home dog. "Weren't the Steelers home dogs just last week and won?" on the minds of many? I don't blame anyone for taking the Steelers since 2021 they're 13-8 ATS as an homedog. You can attribute this to an underperforming Ravens squad accounting for 1/3 of those wins. So we have to ask ourselves, are the Texans overperforming or are the stats saying who they really say they are?
Texans offense is up and down this season, not too explosive and struggles in the redzone. Their numbers don't pop out in the stat sheet but they don't try to do anything extra, go for needless 4th down attempts. CJ Stroud has mostly taken good care of the football and spreads the ball out to a decent cast of receivers.
Texans defense perhaps is the most talked about unit of this team. They have the stingiest defense in the league, don't allow too many explosive plays and will make opponents earn their yards. They're also top 3 in takeaways which can be a deadly combo when they also don't give up a lot of yards. Their team reminds me a bit like the old school Ravens, this defense plays bully ball. Their RedZone defense isn't top 10 which is a shock but since it's so hard to move down the field on the Texans chances of their opponent getting into their endzone is 8 attempts less than the other great defense of the Seahawks.
Texans special teams is also a bit underrated, but I feel they help put the Texans in good field position. In summary, I think Texans have what it takes in all three phases of the game to get this win in Pittsburgh. Demeco Ryans has a good feel for situational awareness and will play to his team's strength which is defense. It won't come easy, but I find it hard that the Steelers will get many scoring opportunities here. I predict the Texans will beat the Steelers by 7 to 10 pts but I won't be shocked if they put up a similar beatdown like against the Ravens earlier this year.
Sip on that plus money honey!
3
The narrative has been set. Texans have never won a road playoff game in their playoff history: 0-6!! No doubt playing in Foxboro, Baltimore, and Kansas City against Brady, Mahomes, Lamar/Flacco, the chances were close to nil. Then we have the Steelers home success on Monday nights. 23 straight wins and 11 with Tomlin, and haven't lost a Monday night game since 1991!
One of the many sources that are peddling this information aren't counting the home loss to Washington from the Covid season in 2020. No crowds I understand. Still that's an impressive trend nevertheless however all these games were in the regular season. This will be the first MNF home game for the Steelers in January. Pittsburgh is a notorious tough place to play in the playoffs, just ask the Ravens but not impossible. Some of the unlikeliest teams have got a win at Pittsburgh, Baker Mayfield and the Browns. Blake Bortles and Trevor Lawrence with the Jags. Whose to say CJ Stroud and the Texans can't either? Tomlin is 2-3 SU in his last 5 home playoff games and 6-4 SU overall. By comparison, Bill Cowherd had an 7-5 SU playoff record at home.
Most importantly can Texans cover the -3 line? Initial reaction says "no" based on these popular trends which favor Steelers as a home dog. "Weren't the Steelers home dogs just last week and won?" on the minds of many? I don't blame anyone for taking the Steelers since 2021 they're 13-8 ATS as an homedog. You can attribute this to an underperforming Ravens squad accounting for 1/3 of those wins. So we have to ask ourselves, are the Texans overperforming or are the stats saying who they really say they are?
Texans offense is up and down this season, not too explosive and struggles in the redzone. Their numbers don't pop out in the stat sheet but they don't try to do anything extra, go for needless 4th down attempts. CJ Stroud has mostly taken good care of the football and spreads the ball out to a decent cast of receivers.
Texans defense perhaps is the most talked about unit of this team. They have the stingiest defense in the league, don't allow too many explosive plays and will make opponents earn their yards. They're also top 3 in takeaways which can be a deadly combo when they also don't give up a lot of yards. Their team reminds me a bit like the old school Ravens, this defense plays bully ball. Their RedZone defense isn't top 10 which is a shock but since it's so hard to move down the field on the Texans chances of their opponent getting into their endzone is 8 attempts less than the other great defense of the Seahawks.
Texans special teams is also a bit underrated, but I feel they help put the Texans in good field position. In summary, I think Texans have what it takes in all three phases of the game to get this win in Pittsburgh. Demeco Ryans has a good feel for situational awareness and will play to his team's strength which is defense. It won't come easy, but I find it hard that the Steelers will get many scoring opportunities here. I predict the Texans will beat the Steelers by 7 to 10 pts but I won't be shocked if they put up a similar beatdown like against the Ravens earlier this year.
Trends are a great tool, but none are 100%. The Steelers were lucky to get into the playoffs (lost to the Browns in week 17 when a W would have sealed it, and then a missed FG in the Ravens game). The Texans are the better team IMO, and I really don't care if they're on the road. Defense wins games in the playoffs, and the Houston D is elite. Goodbye Steelers.
1
Trends are a great tool, but none are 100%. The Steelers were lucky to get into the playoffs (lost to the Browns in week 17 when a W would have sealed it, and then a missed FG in the Ravens game). The Texans are the better team IMO, and I really don't care if they're on the road. Defense wins games in the playoffs, and the Houston D is elite. Goodbye Steelers.
Trends are a great tool, but none are 100%. The Steelers were lucky to get into the playoffs (lost to the Browns in week 17 when a W would have sealed it, and then a missed FG in the Ravens game). The Texans are the better team IMO, and I really don't care if they're on the road. Defense wins games in the playoffs, and the Houston D is elite. Goodbye Steelers.
Good defenses travel indeed. I think Demeco Ryans feels like his team is still not getting the respect it deserves, and tonight is his chance to put a stamp on it and be prepared for even tougher environment in New England next week
Sip on that plus money honey!
1
Quote Originally Posted by nmgolf57:
Trends are a great tool, but none are 100%. The Steelers were lucky to get into the playoffs (lost to the Browns in week 17 when a W would have sealed it, and then a missed FG in the Ravens game). The Texans are the better team IMO, and I really don't care if they're on the road. Defense wins games in the playoffs, and the Houston D is elite. Goodbye Steelers.
Good defenses travel indeed. I think Demeco Ryans feels like his team is still not getting the respect it deserves, and tonight is his chance to put a stamp on it and be prepared for even tougher environment in New England next week
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