I took Niners +3.5 for 1 unit from Sunday night, could have got better odds at +5.5 now. But earlier this morning, I hedged it with Eagles ML -205 for .5 unit. Eagle's defense is pretty solid but their offense lacks consistency. I think Niners are still capable of scoring mid to high twentyish on Eagles, if Niners can limit Eagles' inconsistent offense, this game could be pretty tight or perhaps a Niners straight up. OT Trent Williams could be available this weekend. I may add more play at Niners +5.5.
Earlier tonight I watched the Ravens/Steelers rerun on NFL Network, I could not believe Tyler Loop missed that 44 yarder. And I think Texans should be able to beat Steelers on Monday.
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@Digitalkarma
I took Niners +3.5 for 1 unit from Sunday night, could have got better odds at +5.5 now. But earlier this morning, I hedged it with Eagles ML -205 for .5 unit. Eagle's defense is pretty solid but their offense lacks consistency. I think Niners are still capable of scoring mid to high twentyish on Eagles, if Niners can limit Eagles' inconsistent offense, this game could be pretty tight or perhaps a Niners straight up. OT Trent Williams could be available this weekend. I may add more play at Niners +5.5.
Earlier tonight I watched the Ravens/Steelers rerun on NFL Network, I could not believe Tyler Loop missed that 44 yarder. And I think Texans should be able to beat Steelers on Monday.
This play could either blow up in my face or it could end up being glorious. Going with a wild play to start off Wildcard Weekend. This game will be as wild as the wind, projected 35 mph gust and scattered showers throughout but likely more rain in the 2H.
Several factors against the Rams that has me a bit concerned. The first is the harsh weather which is the great equalizer and usually a problem for Stafford. However, you could point out to me the Jags game in London earlier where he was efficient enough in the rain, and at Seattle where he threw for a whopping 457 yards and no INTs but cold weather in January is different and I expect he will put up similar numbers to their first meeting. While I don't expect another Stafford pick 6 in this game, Stafford could absolutely throw an INT in this game. Panthers defense has come alive with takeaways in the 2H of the season.
Another area of concern, maybe a little more concerning than Stafford's slight 2H decline is the Rams defense. They went from being stingy to being generous in the past month. In their last 4 games they ranked #23 in scoring defense, even letting the Falcons have their way with them. They dropped from #1 in scoring defense to #10 since facing the Panthers. Rams were a good tackling team but their missed tackle rate has doubled since then.
Rams with McVay are 9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS in same season revenge games, but filtering it to with Stafford they are 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS. While I expect the Rams won't take the Panthers lightly this time, these factors that I've mentioned will give the home dog Panthers a fighting chance. I know Bryce Young is starting his first playoff game against a long time veteran which usually goes against young, inexperienced QBs in the playoffs but it doesn't mean they won't cover. However, if Bryce Young pulls off the improbable that would put him with some rare company such as Tim Tebow, and CJ Stroud. Originally had Rams as my pick to win by 14 to 17 pts, but I think laying double digits is a tad much even for a Rams team that has traditionally underperformed as a fave. I think Rams win by 10-13 but more on the 10 pt side, or it could be closer. I'll sprinkle some ML just in case
Sip on that plus money honey!
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1st play of wildcard weekend...
Panthers +10.5
Panthers ml +425* extra small*
This play could either blow up in my face or it could end up being glorious. Going with a wild play to start off Wildcard Weekend. This game will be as wild as the wind, projected 35 mph gust and scattered showers throughout but likely more rain in the 2H.
Several factors against the Rams that has me a bit concerned. The first is the harsh weather which is the great equalizer and usually a problem for Stafford. However, you could point out to me the Jags game in London earlier where he was efficient enough in the rain, and at Seattle where he threw for a whopping 457 yards and no INTs but cold weather in January is different and I expect he will put up similar numbers to their first meeting. While I don't expect another Stafford pick 6 in this game, Stafford could absolutely throw an INT in this game. Panthers defense has come alive with takeaways in the 2H of the season.
Another area of concern, maybe a little more concerning than Stafford's slight 2H decline is the Rams defense. They went from being stingy to being generous in the past month. In their last 4 games they ranked #23 in scoring defense, even letting the Falcons have their way with them. They dropped from #1 in scoring defense to #10 since facing the Panthers. Rams were a good tackling team but their missed tackle rate has doubled since then.
Rams with McVay are 9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS in same season revenge games, but filtering it to with Stafford they are 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS. While I expect the Rams won't take the Panthers lightly this time, these factors that I've mentioned will give the home dog Panthers a fighting chance. I know Bryce Young is starting his first playoff game against a long time veteran which usually goes against young, inexperienced QBs in the playoffs but it doesn't mean they won't cover. However, if Bryce Young pulls off the improbable that would put him with some rare company such as Tim Tebow, and CJ Stroud. Originally had Rams as my pick to win by 14 to 17 pts, but I think laying double digits is a tad much even for a Rams team that has traditionally underperformed as a fave. I think Rams win by 10-13 but more on the 10 pt side, or it could be closer. I'll sprinkle some ML just in case
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma: @Europa Still looking at that one, but the ref assignment for that game def has me scratching my head Sure, I had no intention to influence your play. Good luck, DK!
Nope of course not , good luck Euro!
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma: @Europa Still looking at that one, but the ref assignment for that game def has me scratching my head Sure, I had no intention to influence your play. Good luck, DK!
This Packers vs Bears game is tough to handicap despite looking like the Packers match up better against them they are limping into playoffs with a 4 game losing streak. Both games in this series Packers led by double digits for majority of game but choked in the 2nd meeting. We know we'll get the Bears best in the 2nd half but will it be enough? The Bears are a true wildcard team you don't know what you are going to get. May or may not jump on this one
Sip on that plus money honey!
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This Packers vs Bears game is tough to handicap despite looking like the Packers match up better against them they are limping into playoffs with a 4 game losing streak. Both games in this series Packers led by double digits for majority of game but choked in the 2nd meeting. We know we'll get the Bears best in the 2nd half but will it be enough? The Bears are a true wildcard team you don't know what you are going to get. May or may not jump on this one
This Packers vs Bears game is tough to handicap despite looking like the Packers match up better against them they are limping into playoffs with a 4 game losing streak. Both games in this series Packers led by double digits for majority of game but choked in the 2nd meeting. We know we'll get the Bears best in the 2nd half but will it be enough? The Bears are a true wildcard team you don't know what you are going to get. May or may not jump on this one
Several things going favorably for the Bears in the Wildcard round:
Turnover battle. +22 turnover ratio to Packers +1 turnover ratio. Despite Jordan Love taking good care of the ball, the Packers defense simply aren't generating enough turnovers. Bears offense surprisingly has the fewest giveaways yet the most takeaways this season. It's no wonder the Bears are in it with all these comebacks. Can the Bears sustain this? Who knows but Jordan Love with 3 INTs in 2 of his last 3 games.
Special teams. Bears have the better kicker and return game. Bears offense average starting field position is 32.2(4th) compared to 29.4(30th) for Packers. EPA and DVOA numbers I've seen have the Bears special teams better over the Packers by a good margin
This might be just enough for the Bears to get by.
Bears ML +100 *small*
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
This Packers vs Bears game is tough to handicap despite looking like the Packers match up better against them they are limping into playoffs with a 4 game losing streak. Both games in this series Packers led by double digits for majority of game but choked in the 2nd meeting. We know we'll get the Bears best in the 2nd half but will it be enough? The Bears are a true wildcard team you don't know what you are going to get. May or may not jump on this one
Several things going favorably for the Bears in the Wildcard round:
Turnover battle. +22 turnover ratio to Packers +1 turnover ratio. Despite Jordan Love taking good care of the ball, the Packers defense simply aren't generating enough turnovers. Bears offense surprisingly has the fewest giveaways yet the most takeaways this season. It's no wonder the Bears are in it with all these comebacks. Can the Bears sustain this? Who knows but Jordan Love with 3 INTs in 2 of his last 3 games.
Special teams. Bears have the better kicker and return game. Bears offense average starting field position is 32.2(4th) compared to 29.4(30th) for Packers. EPA and DVOA numbers I've seen have the Bears special teams better over the Packers by a good margin
This might be just enough for the Bears to get by.
I'm envisioning a scenario where the Bears jump out ahead early this time vs Packers and kinda don't look back. Packers will give the Bears a scare but Bears find a way to prevail in the end with a turnover and special teams
Sip on that plus money honey!
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I'm envisioning a scenario where the Bears jump out ahead early this time vs Packers and kinda don't look back. Packers will give the Bears a scare but Bears find a way to prevail in the end with a turnover and special teams
AFC South has been the toughest division for Josh Allen, he is 8-8 vs them and 2-2 against the Jags. I think the Bills can matchup well against the Jags secondary. Expecting Josh Allen to dink and dunk to James Cook to get around Jags stingy run defense and use their two tight ends, Knox and Kincaid. Not to mention they have to watch out for Josh Allen scrambles. Jaguars allow the 10th most receiving yards to tight ends. There's no question, Bills offense are still good at moving the sticks and will do so against the Jags.
On the other side, Jags have themselves a good offense of their own. Perhaps they should emphasize running Etienne more against the Bills below average run defense. Bills pass defense has been pretty stingy this year and it makes me wonder if Trevor Lawrence will get stymied by this pass defense. The only concern I have for the Jags offense is their third down efficiency. Jags will need to keep Josh Allen off the field as much as possible and will need to put emphasize on running the ball. I believe the Jags have the better metrics this season across the board yet it seems like the Bills can match up with them which is kinda crazy.
Jags have the special teams edge but I don't know if it will matter when Bills can move up and down the field no matter which yardage they start at. This game may come down to turnovers and that is the one big edge Jaguars have. Josh Allen has taken better care of the ball lately but he can be prone to turnovers. If Josh Allen doesn't turn it over or Bills get into situation where McDermott gets a little foolish with game management , I don't see how the Bills don't move on to the next round.
This could be the most exhilarating and competitive game on the board. Leaned Jags at first, but now looking at the Bills. It's gonna be close to call I'm still undecided right now.
Sip on that plus money honey!
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AFC South has been the toughest division for Josh Allen, he is 8-8 vs them and 2-2 against the Jags. I think the Bills can matchup well against the Jags secondary. Expecting Josh Allen to dink and dunk to James Cook to get around Jags stingy run defense and use their two tight ends, Knox and Kincaid. Not to mention they have to watch out for Josh Allen scrambles. Jaguars allow the 10th most receiving yards to tight ends. There's no question, Bills offense are still good at moving the sticks and will do so against the Jags.
On the other side, Jags have themselves a good offense of their own. Perhaps they should emphasize running Etienne more against the Bills below average run defense. Bills pass defense has been pretty stingy this year and it makes me wonder if Trevor Lawrence will get stymied by this pass defense. The only concern I have for the Jags offense is their third down efficiency. Jags will need to keep Josh Allen off the field as much as possible and will need to put emphasize on running the ball. I believe the Jags have the better metrics this season across the board yet it seems like the Bills can match up with them which is kinda crazy.
Jags have the special teams edge but I don't know if it will matter when Bills can move up and down the field no matter which yardage they start at. This game may come down to turnovers and that is the one big edge Jaguars have. Josh Allen has taken better care of the ball lately but he can be prone to turnovers. If Josh Allen doesn't turn it over or Bills get into situation where McDermott gets a little foolish with game management , I don't see how the Bills don't move on to the next round.
This could be the most exhilarating and competitive game on the board. Leaned Jags at first, but now looking at the Bills. It's gonna be close to call I'm still undecided right now.
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