Posted:
#426
Wow nice run. GL today 
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Did you make any money betting on NFL this season? Cause, I did. See how
Posted:
#438
Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:
I will post the play/s for the later time slate as I'm not decided on current games. The books have done a great job confusing me with the line movements against the money and with listing and delisting the available players. We're not desperate to part with our winnings
I will post the play/s for the later time slate as I'm not decided on current games. The books have done a great job confusing me with the line movements against the money and with listing and delisting the available players. We're not desperate to part with our winnings
@14allall41
Kudos to you for your patience! Great to hear you say we're not desperate...lol...it's amazing how the feeling comes over us all morning, and then the last desperate hour til 1:00 pm kickoff. How did the time move so quickly? Where did the morning go? We need to pick something!
I also noticed this week how the numbers and %s have been turned on their heads in some cases. The weekly movements shows a trend or just "the status quo" and then the %s change dramatically on some games very late in the cycle, and in some cases the movement all week doesn't match up with the %s all week. Saw it in the past occasionally, but this seems like a more concerted effort by the masters of the universe lol.
Cheers and BOLTA 
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Posted:
#439
Great work with the discipline its lost on 99% of us bettors ...
My cuzzo is losing his mind right now ...He is 8-1 tailing your picks...
Wish his lazy arse would join Covers instead of sending me here ..lol ...
He is deeply concerned you go TOUT real soon ...
...
Me personally I'm looking forward to what you come up with for the later window ...
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Posted:
#443
There is a very interesting game on the board from a handicappers perspective. At least from mine. The Saints against the Chiefs. It is interesting for me because of the angles entangled with each other, but, at the end all summing up to similar conclusion/s. Again: at least for me.
Both teams are in the playoffs. And they made it look easy. Both teams are basing their strategy on offensive superiority. You can also see that easily how their offenses operate having running the ball as always the second option. Both teams have top notch quarterbacks that have almost no limitations to the distance and the precision they can throw the ball at. But, at this particular time- the Saints are limited at that position with Brees coming off a very bothersome injury to his ribs and after nurturing a punctured lung. On top of that -their third option QB is placed on COVID-19 reserve list and they are left with Taysom Hill in case Brees won't be able to either play or play up to his usual abilities. Add to that the fact that with Kelce and Tyreek Hill the Chiefs will have even greater advantage as the kind of defense the saints play the two can thrive and let Mahomes have easy targets all over the field. So, all is good then? Are we in for an easy win supporting the Chiefs with FG to lay?
Well, this is why handicapping this game is fun. I will explain. In my understanding - the best handicappers in the world work as odds makers for the books. They have to take into a consideration all the factors including psychological and personal. Who do we have coaching the Chiefs? Andy Reid. What was our angle with the Ravens versus the Browns? If you remember, our angle was based on Andy Reid's take on how the relationship between the professional coaches should be avoiding at any cost embarrassing each other as it doesn't serve nobody professionally. Reid knows he has great advantage with half ready Brees and he can easily take advantage of that by focusing on disrupting Brees' action by aggressive approach. But, he won't do that to Payton. Not Because the Chiefs do not really need this game. Because NFL needs to pay tribute to Brees the way it did to Payton Manning when he won theSuper Bowl against all odds hardly standing on one foot. Odds makers -they know it too. So, instead of the line climbing from the Chiefs -3 to at least -3.5 with more than 75% of the money being on the Chiefs covering and even more on the Chiefs winning SU - the line became a comfortable invitation to great pool party with the Chiefs at -2.5. All they need is a FG to win.
I might be wrong and might be taking myself and you on the ride and having to buy a new hat after having to eat my current one if the Chiefs - who have "failed" to cover 5 times in a row will cover now and win this one big. But somehow I am convinced that the only way to win games is to think and handicap as if we were the odds makers. Yes, sometimes I will eat my hat, but hopefully much less times than instead of my hat I will eat nice dinner.
There are few more angles in support of what I say and I didn't yet touch the totals in this game as I am not sure what will be the strategy - both quarterbacks scoring at will or the Saints will actually limit Mahomes with Lattimore.
Anyways
NO Saints +2.5
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