Posted:
#401
Love the Packer -8. Good luck brother
0
Did you make any money betting on NFL this season? Cause, I did. See how
Posted:
#410
Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:
Both games on the board today have a great entertaining value but little value for us the bettors. The game that is already being played in Denver - I approached it from every possible angle, breaking down every possible angle I could find and then crunching the numbers as if it would be over or under and the sides off course. Coming up with interesting numbers as 2-4 at home Broncos held 94-161 score while the 4-2 away Bills scored away 159 points and allowed exactly the same. Crunching all that up was easy. Too easy. And then you saw the odds makers have done a brilliant job again and again as taking under or over would have been just a gamble. Same with an ATS. Although -the Bills advantage was clear - the line was very fishy as the team props were 1.5 point higher in the favor of the Bills than the ATS number itself (27.5 - 20.5). Here too any pick would have been a gamble and I decided to stay away since I am advocating business like approach - making profits and building a capital - rather then just gambling. So, I stayed away. Now, I'm crunching the Packers game and here we have slightly a different picture. The team props position the Packers with 11 points advantage at the end of the game as the Packers Team Points stand at 31.5 while the Panthers stand at 20.5. That is a whole point less than the totals line of 52.5 and 3 points more than the Packers -8 ATS line. That is what I'm trying to figure as although the public money greatly supports over and the Packers covering - only one of them will happen as this is a festive night that will recruit many new NFL fans as well as new customers for the books so there wouldn't be a total clean out. Not today. So, although in the normal circumstances I'd sit back and enjoy the game - those aren't normal circumstances and I may not even watch if Alabama game proves to be more entertaining so two bets that are semi hedging each other but promise to be both winners with the same chances are
Both games on the board today have a great entertaining value but little value for us the bettors. The game that is already being played in Denver - I approached it from every possible angle, breaking down every possible angle I could find and then crunching the numbers as if it would be over or under and the sides off course. Coming up with interesting numbers as 2-4 at home Broncos held 94-161 score while the 4-2 away Bills scored away 159 points and allowed exactly the same. Crunching all that up was easy. Too easy. And then you saw the odds makers have done a brilliant job again and again as taking under or over would have been just a gamble. Same with an ATS. Although -the Bills advantage was clear - the line was very fishy as the team props were 1.5 point higher in the favor of the Bills than the ATS number itself (27.5 - 20.5). Here too any pick would have been a gamble and I decided to stay away since I am advocating business like approach - making profits and building a capital - rather then just gambling. So, I stayed away. Now, I'm crunching the Packers game and here we have slightly a different picture. The team props position the Packers with 11 points advantage at the end of the game as the Packers Team Points stand at 31.5 while the Panthers stand at 20.5. That is a whole point less than the totals line of 52.5 and 3 points more than the Packers -8 ATS line. That is what I'm trying to figure as although the public money greatly supports over and the Packers covering - only one of them will happen as this is a festive night that will recruit many new NFL fans as well as new customers for the books so there wouldn't be a total clean out. Not today. So, although in the normal circumstances I'd sit back and enjoy the game - those aren't normal circumstances and I may not even watch if Alabama game proves to be more entertaining so two bets that are semi hedging each other but promise to be both winners with the same chances are
Under 52.5
Packers -8
Now, please remember that the law of probabilities has a contract on us. Sooner than later we will have our share of the losses and 16-3 record gets us nearer to that point. Therefore the only way to continue to be successful is taking on each game as if the record was 0-0 and it would have been the only game on the board. That way the fear of spoiling the record disappears and ego goes to rest for another game. And, once we took the bet - forget about it and do not worry. Our goal is not winning them all but winning the majority of them (over 53%). Right now we are way over our goal and that is something to remember.. How we got there. Only thinking like businessman who makes smart investments and lives off with half off the interest's will successfully progress towards his goals
Under 52.5 
Packers -8 
(means a Tie or a Push)
1-0-1 today
17-3-1 NFL
9-6 NCAAF
26-9-1 overall
1
Posted:
#412
UPDATED RECORD
All my NFL picks
Jets +7.5
Browns +4.5
Titans - Browns u52 
Rams ML
Washington +6.5
Steelers - Washington u43.5
Cowboys +8.5
Rams - Patriots u43.5
Rams -3 First Half
Rams -4.5
Cardinals -3
Bucs - Vikings o52
Dolphins +7
Titans -9
WASH Football Team +1.5 First Half
Colts ML (-135)
Ravens -3
Chargers +3.5
Raiders - Chargers o51.5
Packers - Panthers u52.5
Packers -8
17-3-1 
NFL
9-6 College Football
26-9-1 Overall
0
Posted:
#421
Quote Originally Posted by handicap6272:
@14allall41 Yes. I just did my first tally and season-to-date I'm 52-29 which puts me at over 64%. I hear most people can't do 60% over time, not even the pros.
@14allall41 Yes. I just did my first tally and season-to-date I'm 52-29 which puts me at over 64%. I hear most people can't do 60% over time, not even the pros.
Yes. You're a genius when you're asleep. Open your own thread and make people money like 14allall41 does. Otherwise, like Jimi said - GTFO
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