All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

***Cam NFL Week 8 System Picks***

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 11496
Posts: 67
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:

Buccaneers +7 (-125) 4U 
Buccaneers ML +240 2U 


Total: 22-19 (+15.05U)


Pending:
Steelers -5 (-110) 4U


-waiting for Seahawks +3 , Dolphins +3.
-Looking into Eagles -2 and Broncos -4.5


Lets keep the momentum going into the weekend.

I've got PHIL -1 so it's pretty well a pick'em for me and pretty hard to ignore the SUP records below:

ANDY REID post bye 14-0 SUP 11-3 ATS

Undefeated teams off the bye as road dogs are 0-12 SUP 2-10 ATS

Teams that lost their game before the bye - EAGLES - are ATS 6-2 coming off the break.

Check the weather reports as ATL is a dome team

I liked your take on WASHINGTON so I'm down on the SKINS.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2005
Posts: 4241
Posted: #27
Steelers -5 (-110) 4U

- Really like the Steelers at home laying less than a TD. LeBeau has extra time to prepare for RG3 and the 3-4 scheme is well suited to contain. I like the experience of the Steelers D vs an inexperienced RG3. The Redskins defense is not that great, and I see Pitt moving the ball fairly easily. This line could move up to 6.5 or even 7 depending on how the public responds to getting additional points. I see over a FG of value. Steelers by 9 or 10.
 
Steeler D isnt what it used to be. They are old and no polomalu. Yes wash D sucks. Not sure God could slow down RG3. If you havent seen him play dont bet against him. Steelers have no reason to lay more then a FG against anybody they lost to Oak and Tenn! RG3 looks like a seasoned vet out there and can do anything on a football field. I see the 5 as a gift. Line is moving down now at 4.5. I see sa FG game
 
Like the other picks GL
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2012
Posts: 853
Posted: #28
I like Washington
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 558
Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:

I've got PHIL -1 so it's pretty well a pick'em for me and pretty hard to ignore the SUP records below:

ANDY REID post bye 14-0 SUP 11-3 ATS

Undefeated teams off the bye as road dogs are 0-12 SUP 2-10 ATS

Teams that lost their game before the bye - EAGLES - are ATS 6-2 coming off the break.

Check the weather reports as ATL is a dome team

I liked your take on WASHINGTON so I'm down on the SKINS.


Dang man, those are pretty telling. Thank you once again for posting your trends, I appreciate the intel. Do you have your own database or are you using a website?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 558
Posted: #30
Notes on last night:

1) Vikings are now 5-0SU when Ponder's QBR is higher than the opposing QB's, and are 0-3SU when Ponder's QBR is lower.

2) Though it's a small sample, there is an 87% correlation between (Ponder QBR - Opponent QBR) and the Vikings margin of victory.

Just for future wagering, it may be smart to avoid the Vikings when Ponder is facing a tough pass defense and is facing an above average QB.

Their next match-up is in Seattle which had held opposing QBs to 28.6% below their season average QBR. Likely that Ponder struggles again.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:


Dang man, those are pretty telling. Thank you once again for posting your trends, I appreciate the intel. Do you have your own database or are you using a website?

I use a website but you need to know a little bit of coding language. There's another handicapping site with a forum and a thread run by a guy who pretty well answers all coding questions. Very interesting, very helpful.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:

Notes on last night:

1) Vikings are now 5-0SU when Ponder's QBR is higher than the opposing QB's, and are 0-3SU when Ponder's QBR is lower.

2) Though it's a small sample, there is an 87% correlation between (Ponder QBR - Opponent QBR) and the Vikings margin of victory.

Just for future wagering, it may be smart to avoid the Vikings when Ponder is facing a tough pass defense and is facing an above average QB.

Their next match-up is in Seattle which had held opposing QBs to 28.6% below their season average QBR. Likely that Ponder struggles again.

Since 2010 the Vikings 3-10 SUP and 3-10 ATS after a win. As you tell from last nights performance the VIKES just aren't good enough to get on a roll. Going forward whether that changes is anyone's guess. Good Luck on the weekend.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 558
Posted: #33
Adding:

Seahawks +3 (-130) 2U

- I think this is a great match-up for the Seahawks. They have been very strong against the pass, holding opposing QBs to 28.6% below their season average. This is not good for Matt Stafford because he has really struggled this season. Last season Matt Stafford threw 12 Multi-TD games, yet this season he has not had a single one. This is not a good week for Stafford to break this streak as the Seahawks have only allowed one Multi-TD passer this season, Tom Brady. Furthermore, the Seahawks have only allowed 6 passing TDs all season, one coming from a punter. I think the athleticism of the Seahawks front 7 will cause problems for the Detroit line, and I see them getting after Matt Stafford regularly. My biggest fear here is that Russell Wilson has really struggled on the road. He has only thrown 2 TDs while throwing 7 INTs, leading the Seahawks to a 1-3 record on the road. Having said that, this weakness is counterbalanced by the ineptitude of the Lions pass defense. Cutler looked very good last week against this defense before his injury. They have only forced 2 INTs all season, and have allowed a high QBR average. If Wilson protects the ball, I expect the Seahawks to win SU. This will probably be an FG game so I like buying the hook as insurance. I really like the under, but it seems like the public is all over it so I'm not sure yet.




 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 558
Posted: #34
Sorry, that juice is actually -125. Went to place the wager and it had changed, not really a big deal but thought i would note that.

Also, the 28.6% number is in relation to the opposing QB's QBR.

Adding:

Eagles -2 (-110) 2U

- The trends seem to favor the Eagles. I have this valued at Eagles -3 so I like laying under the FG. The match-up is pretty solid for the Eagles since they actually have the talent at CB to match-up with the Falcons' WRs. The Falcons don't seem to play as well outside of the Georgia Dome, at least last year this was true. I think they will really feel the loss of Grimes in this match-up as I see either D.Jackson or J.Maclin having a big game. I'm keeping this small because there isn't a huge amount of value outside of being below the key number.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:

Adding:

Seahawks +3 (-130) 2U

- I think this is a great match-up for the Seahawks. They have been very strong against the pass, holding opposing QBs to 28.6% below their season average. This is not good for Matt Stafford because he has really struggled this season. Last season Matt Stafford threw 12 Multi-TD games, yet this season he has not had a single one. This is not a good week for Stafford to break this streak as the Seahawks have only allowed one Multi-TD passer this season, Tom Brady. Furthermore, the Seahawks have only allowed 6 passing TDs all season, one coming from a punter. I think the athleticism of the Seahawks front 7 will cause problems for the Detroit line, and I see them getting after Matt Stafford regularly. My biggest fear here is that Russell Wilson has really struggled on the road. He has only thrown 2 TDs while throwing 7 INTs, leading the Seahawks to a 1-3 record on the road. Having said that, this weakness is counterbalanced by the ineptitude of the Lions pass defense. Cutler looked very good last week against this defense before his injury. They have only forced 2 INTs all season, and have allowed a high QBR average. If Wilson protects the ball, I expect the Seahawks to win SU. This will probably be an FG game so I like buying the hook as insurance. I really like the under, but it seems like the public is all over it so I'm not sure yet.






It sounds like you're describing a game that will go under the total. I watched the MNF didn't they say that the LIONS had the number one red zone defense in the league? If so, it could be tough for HAWKS to get in the endzone. I like your write up a lot.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 558
Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:



It sounds like you're describing a game that will go under the total. I watched the MNF didn't they say that the LIONS had the number one red zone defense in the league? If so, it could be tough for HAWKS to get in the endzone. I like your write up a lot.

Dang I didn't know that about the RZ defense. I think I will go through the Lions TT U22.5.

-In games where Stafford throws 1 or fewer TDs, the Lions average 16.5 pts and have broken 22.5 only 23.5% of the time.
-In games where Stafford has a sub-50 QBR, the Lions average 17.5 pts and have broken 22.5 only 20% of the time.

I will wait though to see if I can get U23.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 558
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:


Dang I didn't know that about the RZ defense. I think I will go through the Lions TT U22.5.

-In games where Stafford throws 1 or fewer TDs, the Lions average 16.5 pts and have broken 22.5 only 23.5% of the time.
-In games where Stafford has a sub-50 QBR, the Lions average 17.5 pts and have broken 22.5 only 20% of the time.

I will wait though to see if I can get U23.

ALSO

When Stafford throws 1 of fewer TDs and has a QBR below 50:

-The Lions are 0-11 SU
-Average 14 pts/game. Scoring over 22.5 once.
-Lions are 2-8-1 ATS. They were underdogs in most of these games, but when they were a favorite they are 0-2 SU. One of those covers was the Bears game this season.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 558
Posted: #38
Yeah I just can't ignore these numbers, and I expect the total to drop due to the heavy public action on the under so I'm going to lock this in.

Lions TT U22.5 (-110) 2U

- The conditions I described above are expected to stay intact so I think the Lions are likely to stay in the teens this game. Only fear is a pick 6 or some kind of KR/PR TD.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #39
As for the red zone stat it is just something I thought I heard on the MNF game. I'm doing some searches and I see Seattle's offense is ranked 31st in redzone scoring percentages (TD only). I'm trying to find some defensive statistics for the lions.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #40
Ah I found it - Lions Defense is ranked 1st in red zone scoring percentages (TD only) and Seattle's offense is ranked next to dead last in RZ scoring percentages. Maybe a lot of FGs for the HAWKS this week. These trends seem to be in play as I watched  both the LIONS and HAWKS last games and that's what my eyeballs were telling me. If you want to check it here's the link

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2012
Posts: 558
Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:

Ah I found it - Lions Defense is ranked 1st in red zone scoring percentages (TD only) and Seattle's offense is ranked next to dead last in RZ scoring percentages. Maybe a lot of FGs for the HAWKS this week. These trends seem to be in play as I watched  both the LIONS and HAWKS last games and that's what my eyeballs were telling me. If you want to check it here's the link

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-red-zone-scoring-pct

That's pretty telling. I think I may just stick with the Lions TT U22.5. I dug up some more stats:

Lions: avg 12 drives per game. Score on 38.4% of them. Average 4.7 pts per scoring drive.

Seattle: avg 10 drives allowed, scoring on 30.6% of them. Average 4.6 pts per scoring drive.

If you combine those you have the Lions scoring 17.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #42

SEA at DET

Red Zone Statistics

DEFENSE

 

DET 1st 25% (TD only)
SEA 2nd 30% (TD only)

OFFENSE

DET 19th 47.83% (TD only)
SEA 31st 33.33% (TD only)

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #43
Do you know Warren Sharp? He's one of the sharpest total players - period. Respected through out the industry. I was listening to the CANTOR handicapping contest and Sharp released Detroit-Seattle under 43.0 as his top play college and nfl combined. Hey, I think we're on to something. Here are some interesting points he made.

SEA road OU 4-8
DET home OU 4-6
SEA road total more than 41 OU 1-4
DET playing teams allowing less than 25 points a game and scores less than 30 points a game OU 2-8
SEA hasn’t scored more than 16 points on the road this year
SEA averages less than 17 points per game
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 1446
Posted: #44
I see 3 losses already (Bears, Broncos & Pitts), other 3 ...chance 50/50

Bears = just did not covered because 2 blow out wins...third game against Detroit on MNF. This game against Carolina is just have the feeling of the game between SF & Seattle.

Broncos is an AFC team who is giving points to NFC team NO...this yr that scenario has a perfect record (NFC underdog covered spreads).
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 1446
Posted: #45
Pitts vs Was = similar to Broncos & NE who are giving points to NFC team.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 2964
Posted: #46
dont think you want the bears...when poor teams (below .333) face excellent teams (above .750)....on the road....the poor team wins about 83 %....(look at the tb vs minny game)
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 2964
Posted: #47
im runnin wit carolina and possibly det (sea due for a SU and ATS loss).....
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 1206
Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by cam2smitty:

Locking In:

Steelers -5 (-110) 4U

- Really like the Steelers at home laying less than a TD. LeBeau has extra time to prepare for RG3 and the 3-4 scheme is well suited to contain. I like the experience of the Steelers D vs an inexperienced RG3. The Redskins defense is not that great, and I see Pitt moving the ball fairly easily. This line could move up to 6.5 or even 7 depending on how the public responds to getting additional points. I see over a FG of value. Steelers by 9 or 10.

I ALSO THINK RG3 IS GOING TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE BECAUSE OF THE CONCUSSION...
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 350
Posted: #49
Some nice stats posted for the Lions/Seahawks under play...I'll be jumping on that this weekend. Also like the Dolphins this week...Leaving the ball with Dirty Sanchez and his arm will only lead to trouble to for the Jets Offence.
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 460
Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by bobafett:

dont think you want the bears...when poor teams (below .333) face excellent teams (above .750)....on the road....the poor team wins about 83 %....(look at the tb vs minny game)


Since 2007 teams in week 6 or later that have a win of percentage of .350 or less and are on the road against a team with a win percentage of .750 or more are ATS 12-15; SUP 5-22; OU 7-18-2

All I see is a bias to the UNDER
All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.