***Cam NFL Week 6 System Picks***

- Hate to lay points on a team that's been a dog all season, but I see too much value here. Vegas isn't giving the Dolphins their proper respect in my opinion, but the public is yet to catch on too. Tannehill is quietly putting together a very solid rookie campaign. He has made some bad decisions, but I like how he is throwing the ball on 3rd down. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball successfully against the Rams, which should help Tannehill out at home. I trust the Dolphins defense at home to keep the Rams offense to 13 points tops, but I could easily see the Rams sticking around single digits. I'm afraid of what the loss of Amendola means for this already struggling pass offense. Amendola accounted for 35% of targets before his injury. When throwing to Amendola, Bradford completed 70% of his passes, but when targeting other WR/TEs Bradford completed just 53% of his passes. The especially bad thing about losing Amendola is that they now play the Dolphins who sport the leagues #1 Rush Defense. This is a bad time to have to pass the ball after losing such a critical WR. In sum, I see the Rams offense struggling mightily and Tannehill doing just enough at home to get the cover here. Final Score: Mia 23, Stl 9

Like some more games and will be posting after I finish looking into them. BOL ALL

(B) Big fan of your picks in general. 

(C) Where do you get your stats? E.g. Bradford's completion rate vs. different receivers?

Looking forward to more of your Week 6 picks. 

Thanks mate. I put together those Bradford stats based on ESPN box scores. I didn't use the Arizona numbers since Amendola went down mid-game. Here's a breakdown of Bradford's stats:

When throwing to-

RBs, 13 catches on 17 targets - 76% completion

TEs, 13 catches on 17 targets - 76% completion

Amendola, 31 catches on 44 targets - 70% completion

Other WRs, 21 catches on 47 targets - 45% completion

Expected yards per target which is [(Yards/Targets)*Completion%]

RBs, 3.7 yards

TEs, 5.0 yards

Amendola, 5.7 yards

Other WRs, 3.1 yards

On 3rd Down Passes:

Amendola, 11 catches on 16 targets, 69% Completion Rate

Other WR/TEs, 10 catches on 19 targets, 53% Completion Rate

RBs, 4 catches on 5 targets, 80% completions rate (I don't think this is relevant because these are mostly screens and little dump offs)

Bradford has been sacked 8 times on 3rd down

Basically, we can infer that Bradford loves throwing to Amendola on 3rd downs. Before his injury, Amendola was targeted on over half of 3rd down passes. I think it is also alarming that Bradford was sacked 8 out of 43 pass attempts or roughly 20% of the time. If Bradford targets his other receivers at a completion rate of 53% with a 20% sack rate, there is a 73% chance that a 3rd down pass will yield zero to negative yards. Since the Dolphins are so good at stopping the run, I see the Rams getting in 3rd and medium to long situations in which they don't have a high success rate meaning they will struggle to maintain drives. 

-as explained above.

-Bills are garbage when playing on the west coast and away from home in general. Think the Cardinals will bounce back after a tough loss on Thursday night and I like them at home coming off a long week. I think the Cards defense will be a little too much for Buff to handle. Bills have given up 37.5 points/game in their last 8 road contests so I think the Cards offense should be okay. Larod Stephens-Howling is a bit more explosive than the 2 RBs the Cards lost so I see some offensive upside here as well. 

- I have this one hitting 60 so I think there is a lot of value. I like the Lions offense coming off a bye week where they hopefully solved their problems. I sense some D/ST touchdowns in this one hopefully.

- This is a FG game where I like the Chiefs. Both offenses are bad, but KC has the advantage on defense in my opinion. The loss of Cassell is a big whatever in my books since they were calling for him to be benched anyway. Quinn has a bad track record, but I think the time he's had away from the spotlight will pay dividends. I see both teams pounding the ball on the ground and waging a FG war. Whichever team has the ball last should win which means I think the +4 has significant value. I have the final at Chiefs 19, Bucs 16. 

BOL TO ALL

Are the Bills staying on the west coast instead of traveling back to Buff?

From the games I can find, the Bills seem to really struggle against teams on the west coast. 

- Snagged this line when I saw it jumping on other sites, had my eye on it for awhile hoping to get down to 4. Giants are traveling across the country to face the 49ers who are excellent at home. I like the match-up solely for the physical nature of the 49ers vs the relatively finesse style of the Giants. The Giants front 7 is very athletic, but not overly physical. I think the 49ers will control this game on the ground by pounding the Giants. Andre Brown is unlikely to play and I think he provided a nice spark the past few weeks. The Giants haven't beaten anyone good, the teams they beat have a combined record of 2-12. The revenge angle in this game is massive, as the 49ers virtually delivered the Giants their trip to the Super Bowl in last years playoffs. If I know Harbaugh the way I think I do, he will have his boys chomping at the bit to get after the Giants this week. Final SF 27, NYG 17

I'm curious how the Dolphins  will do playing as a favorite. 

Also, not sure how home favorites do after  playing as back to back road dogs in  their 2 previous games.

Anyone have a trend for this?

BOL!

I don't know what that trend would be, but I don't think it would be too significant. I would think being a home dog back to back then being a road favorite would be much more important. Pretty sure that's what happened to the Seahawks earlier this year when they beat the Cowboys and Packers as home dogs then went to St. Louis and lost as the favorite.

Thanks for the info

I actually like the upside of LSH at RB. The Cards primary backs weren't effective at all so I don't think they are a significant loss. Gonna be interesting to see how the Bills pass rush performs. Those $100m contracts seem to create complacency though.

You have Brandon Gibson as the main guy. The next two down the line are rookies...

Cameron Wake vs Wayne Hunter should be funny.

Chris Long vs Martin should be a good battle. Big game for the rookie.