Pretty good start for the system last week. I will be recalibrating it after week 4 which should generate some additional picks. I'm waiting for a lot of the new QBs to generate stats before I bet on them.
We have some interesting games this week. Want to go ahead and lock one in:
Cowboys -7 (-110) 4U
- Think we have a lot of value in this one as the perception of the Cowboys is low and the perception of the Bucs is high.
- Last weeks game against the Seahawks is not indicative of the Cowboys. This was a terrible spot as the Cowboys were coming off an emotional win against the Giants and had to turn around and play in a very tough environment in Seattle. This game couldn't have started worse. The Cowboys fumbled the opening kickoff and then on their next possession had a punt blocked for a TD. You can't spot the Seahawks 10pts at home with that environment, not to mention those 10pts really takes the pressure off of Russell Wilson which showed. The Cowboys also had a lot of dropped passes.
- The Bucs beat the Panthers in week 1 and almost beat the Giants last week. Though I admit they do look improved, they caught the Panthers having to practice in makeshift facilities due to the DNC for the week and their defense was torn apart by the Giants. I do believe their offense has improved, mostly due to Josh Freeman coming off of his sophomore slump, but I don't think their defense is that great.
- I have this capped at Cowboys by 20. Even if you factor in a Bucs improvement of 5 pts, which is high given no QB change, you still have a TD margin of safety. Overall I like the Cowboys to bounce back in this spot and cover the points.
Good luck all, and I will be posting more picks as the week goes on.
Pretty good start for the system last week. I will be recalibrating it after week 4 which should generate some additional picks. I'm waiting for a lot of the new QBs to generate stats before I bet on them.
We have some interesting games this week. Want to go ahead and lock one in:
Cowboys -7 (-110) 4U
- Think we have a lot of value in this one as the perception of the Cowboys is low and the perception of the Bucs is high.
- Last weeks game against the Seahawks is not indicative of the Cowboys. This was a terrible spot as the Cowboys were coming off an emotional win against the Giants and had to turn around and play in a very tough environment in Seattle. This game couldn't have started worse. The Cowboys fumbled the opening kickoff and then on their next possession had a punt blocked for a TD. You can't spot the Seahawks 10pts at home with that environment, not to mention those 10pts really takes the pressure off of Russell Wilson which showed. The Cowboys also had a lot of dropped passes.
- The Bucs beat the Panthers in week 1 and almost beat the Giants last week. Though I admit they do look improved, they caught the Panthers having to practice in makeshift facilities due to the DNC for the week and their defense was torn apart by the Giants. I do believe their offense has improved, mostly due to Josh Freeman coming off of his sophomore slump, but I don't think their defense is that great.
- I have this capped at Cowboys by 20. Even if you factor in a Bucs improvement of 5 pts, which is high given no QB change, you still have a TD margin of safety. Overall I like the Cowboys to bounce back in this spot and cover the points.
Good luck all, and I will be posting more picks as the week goes on.
not playing this one and wish you the best but thread lightly tb playing tough cowboys are a team that has no room for improvement they are what they are of yrs past tb just keeps improveing from week to week not many people thought tb could give giants a game and could happen this week to
not playing this one and wish you the best but thread lightly tb playing tough cowboys are a team that has no room for improvement they are what they are of yrs past tb just keeps improveing from week to week not many people thought tb could give giants a game and could happen this week to
I don't think you can infer too much about teams after the first 2 weeks. If you look at the TB/NYG game, TB scored 21pts off of 3 Eli Manning INTs in the first half, one being a pick 6. Outside of that they only managed 13pts. Their defense, which I think has improved, gave up some huge plays and couldn't hold onto the lead. You also know perception is off when you have the Cowboys at home against a team that finished 4-12 last season and they don't have the public money. Should be an interesting game though.
I don't think you can infer too much about teams after the first 2 weeks. If you look at the TB/NYG game, TB scored 21pts off of 3 Eli Manning INTs in the first half, one being a pick 6. Outside of that they only managed 13pts. Their defense, which I think has improved, gave up some huge plays and couldn't hold onto the lead. You also know perception is off when you have the Cowboys at home against a team that finished 4-12 last season and they don't have the public money. Should be an interesting game though.
- I like the Bears to bounce back in this spot. I think Cutler is a much better home QB, which has shown throughout his career split stats. The Bears defense is also much better at home in absolute and relative terms. I'm concerned about the Matt Forte injury, but today's report is not calling it a high ankle sprain and he does have a long week to rehab. He is listed as questionable, and I could easily see the Bears sitting him just to be cautious. I think the offseason acquisition of Michael Bush helps to mitigate his loss if Forte sits. I'm also concerned about the Bears OL as they were dominated by the Packers pass rush. The good thing is that the Rams best pass rusher is Chris Long, and although I think he is a great player, he isn't Clay Matthews. The Bears Line also has 10 days to fix their protection issues.
- The Rams have looked much better this season, as they played the Lions close and beat RG3 and the Redskins. I think the Rams have benefited from having two excellent spots. They caught the Lions who had a road match-up with the 49ers on deck and they caught the Redskins right after a statistically rare outperformance against the Saints. They have struggled against the run, which I think mitigates the loss of Forte if he does not play. Bradford has relied on WR Danny Amendola, targeting him on 42% of pass plays. Amendola is an undersized WR at 5'10" 180, and I think he will struggle to get open against the Cover 2 press that the Bears run. You also have Steven Jackson nursing a groin strain which is a tough injury to come back from as a RB. Jackson is a tough guy and I see him playing, but not at 100%. With the Rams having their top two weapons playing below 100%, I really see them struggling against the Bears dominant home defense.
-I have this capped at 26-10, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears hit 33. Look for Rookie Shea McClellin to have a big day.
Browns +3 (-115) 2U
- I actually have the Browns winning by 4 or 5. I hate to bet on a rookie QB in week 3, but I like how Weeden bounced back and played well at home. I don't expect him to repeat last weeks stats, but I trust him to manage the game at home with a bit more confidence from last week. The emergence of Trent Richardson is a great sign, and now he gets to face the Bills who have been gashed on the ground in their first two games. I see Richardson having a big day and putting Weeden in a position to simply manage the game rather than win it with his arm.
- I really like fading the Bills on the road this season. Last year they were Jekyll and Hyde, playing exceptionally well at home and poorly on the road. So far this doesn't seem to have changed. They went from getting crushed by the Jets on the road to dominating the Chiefs at home. The emergence of CJ Spiller is a positive for the Bills, but he has gotten the majority of his yards on a few big plays. The Browns have limited long runs so far, allowing game long runs of 19 and 22 yards. If they can limit Spiller's big plays, I see the Bills offense stalling often. If the home/away trend stays intact, I see the Browns covering the points if not winning straight up.
Good luck to all, and I welcome and encourage any discussion about my picks so far.
- I like the Bears to bounce back in this spot. I think Cutler is a much better home QB, which has shown throughout his career split stats. The Bears defense is also much better at home in absolute and relative terms. I'm concerned about the Matt Forte injury, but today's report is not calling it a high ankle sprain and he does have a long week to rehab. He is listed as questionable, and I could easily see the Bears sitting him just to be cautious. I think the offseason acquisition of Michael Bush helps to mitigate his loss if Forte sits. I'm also concerned about the Bears OL as they were dominated by the Packers pass rush. The good thing is that the Rams best pass rusher is Chris Long, and although I think he is a great player, he isn't Clay Matthews. The Bears Line also has 10 days to fix their protection issues.
- The Rams have looked much better this season, as they played the Lions close and beat RG3 and the Redskins. I think the Rams have benefited from having two excellent spots. They caught the Lions who had a road match-up with the 49ers on deck and they caught the Redskins right after a statistically rare outperformance against the Saints. They have struggled against the run, which I think mitigates the loss of Forte if he does not play. Bradford has relied on WR Danny Amendola, targeting him on 42% of pass plays. Amendola is an undersized WR at 5'10" 180, and I think he will struggle to get open against the Cover 2 press that the Bears run. You also have Steven Jackson nursing a groin strain which is a tough injury to come back from as a RB. Jackson is a tough guy and I see him playing, but not at 100%. With the Rams having their top two weapons playing below 100%, I really see them struggling against the Bears dominant home defense.
-I have this capped at 26-10, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears hit 33. Look for Rookie Shea McClellin to have a big day.
Browns +3 (-115) 2U
- I actually have the Browns winning by 4 or 5. I hate to bet on a rookie QB in week 3, but I like how Weeden bounced back and played well at home. I don't expect him to repeat last weeks stats, but I trust him to manage the game at home with a bit more confidence from last week. The emergence of Trent Richardson is a great sign, and now he gets to face the Bills who have been gashed on the ground in their first two games. I see Richardson having a big day and putting Weeden in a position to simply manage the game rather than win it with his arm.
- I really like fading the Bills on the road this season. Last year they were Jekyll and Hyde, playing exceptionally well at home and poorly on the road. So far this doesn't seem to have changed. They went from getting crushed by the Jets on the road to dominating the Chiefs at home. The emergence of CJ Spiller is a positive for the Bills, but he has gotten the majority of his yards on a few big plays. The Browns have limited long runs so far, allowing game long runs of 19 and 22 yards. If they can limit Spiller's big plays, I see the Bills offense stalling often. If the home/away trend stays intact, I see the Browns covering the points if not winning straight up.
Good luck to all, and I welcome and encourage any discussion about my picks so far.
I agree it will be tough game and Cleveland has a great chance of winning, but the Bills laid an egg in game 1 and played great on defense yesterday! Do you watch the games?
I agree it will be tough game and Cleveland has a great chance of winning, but the Bills laid an egg in game 1 and played great on defense yesterday! Do you watch the games?
I agree it will be tough game and Cleveland has a great chance of winning, but the Bills laid an egg in game 1 and played great on defense yesterday! Do you watch the games?
I admit that I didn't watch the Bills/Chiefs game, but I did see that Chiefs ran for 150yards on 24 carries. Having said that, my picks are based on a statistical system and the qualitative comments are mostly used as filler or further justification. To add, the Bills ranked 28th against the run last year according to Football Outsiders, and I haven't seen anything through the first two weeks to change that.
I agree it will be tough game and Cleveland has a great chance of winning, but the Bills laid an egg in game 1 and played great on defense yesterday! Do you watch the games?
I admit that I didn't watch the Bills/Chiefs game, but I did see that Chiefs ran for 150yards on 24 carries. Having said that, my picks are based on a statistical system and the qualitative comments are mostly used as filler or further justification. To add, the Bills ranked 28th against the run last year according to Football Outsiders, and I haven't seen anything through the first two weeks to change that.
BOL buddy... i like the browns pick, im leaning rams as of now but might be a stay away game.... as for the cowboys im biased and think they will win but to play it safe i took the over
BOL buddy... i like the browns pick, im leaning rams as of now but might be a stay away game.... as for the cowboys im biased and think they will win but to play it safe i took the over
- I have the Eagles winning by 11 against the Cardinals. The Eagles have barely squeaked by in their two contests this year. This is due in large part to their 9 turnovers. Though I think Vick has made some very glaring errors thus far, I don't see this trend continuing. The Cardinals are coming off an emotional win in New England last Sunday. I am chalking this win up as a fluke, as the Patriots just didn't seem to be able to execute and we wouldn't be talking about this as much if not for the missed FG at the end of the game. I think the Eagles defense is elite and will give whoever plays QB for the Cardinals some problems. I'm keeping this a small play due to the dominance of the Cardinals D-Line and the Eagles Turnover issues.
Dolphins +3 (-120) 2U
- I really like this match-up as I have the Dolphins winning by 5. Tannehill has gained some more confidence and the support from the run game is really helping the Dolphins offense. The Dolphins have a very talented offensive line which I think will be able to keep Tannehill upright enough against the Jets aggressive defense. I have noted before Mark Sanchez's struggles on the road, and I don't see this changing. The Jets locker room has to fracturing going into this game. When Tebow went into the Steelers game, their offense actually moved the ball and when Sanchez was in he looked terrible outside of the first two drives. I think the Tebow distractions will be too much for the Jets to come away with the win here.
That should be about it in terms of sides. BOL to everyone this week.
- I have the Eagles winning by 11 against the Cardinals. The Eagles have barely squeaked by in their two contests this year. This is due in large part to their 9 turnovers. Though I think Vick has made some very glaring errors thus far, I don't see this trend continuing. The Cardinals are coming off an emotional win in New England last Sunday. I am chalking this win up as a fluke, as the Patriots just didn't seem to be able to execute and we wouldn't be talking about this as much if not for the missed FG at the end of the game. I think the Eagles defense is elite and will give whoever plays QB for the Cardinals some problems. I'm keeping this a small play due to the dominance of the Cardinals D-Line and the Eagles Turnover issues.
Dolphins +3 (-120) 2U
- I really like this match-up as I have the Dolphins winning by 5. Tannehill has gained some more confidence and the support from the run game is really helping the Dolphins offense. The Dolphins have a very talented offensive line which I think will be able to keep Tannehill upright enough against the Jets aggressive defense. I have noted before Mark Sanchez's struggles on the road, and I don't see this changing. The Jets locker room has to fracturing going into this game. When Tebow went into the Steelers game, their offense actually moved the ball and when Sanchez was in he looked terrible outside of the first two drives. I think the Tebow distractions will be too much for the Jets to come away with the win here.
That should be about it in terms of sides. BOL to everyone this week.
2Team_Parlay: I like that over as well, I have it hitting 53 points. I'm staying away from totals just because I had a little too much error last week for my liking.
Mtbaker: good luck as well.
Camron36: I'm not big into teasers, but that first one I obviously like. In regards to your second one, I think the 49ers at a pick is safe but I could see a let down due to their 2 huge wins so far and I have it capped at exactly 7. I am avoiding New Orleans until the offseason issues play out, the news this week in regards to Vilma could be a further distraction. I know they lost to the Panthers last week, but they did look their normal selves and could play up big time to avoid an 0-3 hole.
2Team_Parlay: I like that over as well, I have it hitting 53 points. I'm staying away from totals just because I had a little too much error last week for my liking.
Mtbaker: good luck as well.
Camron36: I'm not big into teasers, but that first one I obviously like. In regards to your second one, I think the 49ers at a pick is safe but I could see a let down due to their 2 huge wins so far and I have it capped at exactly 7. I am avoiding New Orleans until the offseason issues play out, the news this week in regards to Vilma could be a further distraction. I know they lost to the Panthers last week, but they did look their normal selves and could play up big time to avoid an 0-3 hole.
This is a non-system play so I won't count it towards my record, but I will start keeping track of my non-system record.
Keep in mind, I obviously love the Panthers and they have been my team through thick and thin. I went to the very first franchise game, but my job in Bahrain has made it tough to make it to games recently.
This is a great match-up for the Panthers on many levels. In terms of the situation, I really like the Panthers in the 3 day week situation. The key here is that the Giants are beat up and the Panthers offense is very unique to prepare for.
Panthers Offense: The Panthers offense is controlled by Rob Chudzinski. Chud was a target for head coaching positions last season, and I'm sure will be again after this season. Chudzinski brought Norv Turner's vertical passing game from San Diego and combined it with Auburn's zone read/option game that they ran with Cam Newton. This is a deadly combination. Cam Newton is a very unique quarterback, he is massive, is able to run the ball, and has a very strong arm. This unique offense combined with Newton's unique skill set should prove very hard to prepare for on a short week. The emergence of Brandon LaFell as a capable 2nd option to Steve Smith is key for this offense. In order to stop Steve Smith you have to put a safety overtop which makes LaFell a critical target. Through the first two weeks, LaFell has been great. Teams put him in single coverage, and he has been open very often making for easy completions for Cam Newton. The Panthers also have a great offensive line led by Pro Bowlers Jordan Gross and Ryan Kalil. Gross should be able to handle Jason Pierre-Paul, and I trust Kalil to make the right calls at the line to have the right protection against the Giants' pass rush. Byron Bell will be matched up with Justin Tuck on the right side, and although Bell has looked good, I expect the Panthers to give him help on most pass plays.
Panthers Defense: This was a unit that was abused last season, largely due to injuries. Job Beason, who is the heart of this defense, is back and has looked great. The Panthers also get back Thomas Davis and drafter Luke Kuechly who are great coverage LBs which should limit the emergence of Martellus Bennett as one of Eli's favorite targets. The Panthers also get back NT Ron Edwards who was expected to anchor the middle of the D-Line, but was lost in training camp for the season last year. With these three back, I expect the Panthers defense to be much better this season. The secondary is really the only question mark going into this season. A lot has been made of the emergence of rookie Josh Norman in training camp, and he has looked capable thus far. The emergence of Norman has helped this unit as Captain Munnerlyn was abused last season, but he has been able to slide into the nickel which is really where he is best due to his small size. The loss of Hakeem Nicks should help this unit as well in terms of match-ups. I still expect the Giants, and specifically Victor Cruz, to make big plays, but I don't think it will be enough. Also, the Panthers DC is Sean McDermott, who came over after being fired by the Eagles. McDermott is well versed in the Giants' offense, as he was the Eagles DC for two years and an assistant for several before. I expect McDermott's experience facing Eli and the Giants offense to be crucial in preparing on a short week. In McDermott's two seasons as DC against Eli Manning, he has held the Giants to 17 pts on two meetings at home although the Giants offense was much more successful in the meetings at home.
This is a non-system play so I won't count it towards my record, but I will start keeping track of my non-system record.
Keep in mind, I obviously love the Panthers and they have been my team through thick and thin. I went to the very first franchise game, but my job in Bahrain has made it tough to make it to games recently.
This is a great match-up for the Panthers on many levels. In terms of the situation, I really like the Panthers in the 3 day week situation. The key here is that the Giants are beat up and the Panthers offense is very unique to prepare for.
Panthers Offense: The Panthers offense is controlled by Rob Chudzinski. Chud was a target for head coaching positions last season, and I'm sure will be again after this season. Chudzinski brought Norv Turner's vertical passing game from San Diego and combined it with Auburn's zone read/option game that they ran with Cam Newton. This is a deadly combination. Cam Newton is a very unique quarterback, he is massive, is able to run the ball, and has a very strong arm. This unique offense combined with Newton's unique skill set should prove very hard to prepare for on a short week. The emergence of Brandon LaFell as a capable 2nd option to Steve Smith is key for this offense. In order to stop Steve Smith you have to put a safety overtop which makes LaFell a critical target. Through the first two weeks, LaFell has been great. Teams put him in single coverage, and he has been open very often making for easy completions for Cam Newton. The Panthers also have a great offensive line led by Pro Bowlers Jordan Gross and Ryan Kalil. Gross should be able to handle Jason Pierre-Paul, and I trust Kalil to make the right calls at the line to have the right protection against the Giants' pass rush. Byron Bell will be matched up with Justin Tuck on the right side, and although Bell has looked good, I expect the Panthers to give him help on most pass plays.
Panthers Defense: This was a unit that was abused last season, largely due to injuries. Job Beason, who is the heart of this defense, is back and has looked great. The Panthers also get back Thomas Davis and drafter Luke Kuechly who are great coverage LBs which should limit the emergence of Martellus Bennett as one of Eli's favorite targets. The Panthers also get back NT Ron Edwards who was expected to anchor the middle of the D-Line, but was lost in training camp for the season last year. With these three back, I expect the Panthers defense to be much better this season. The secondary is really the only question mark going into this season. A lot has been made of the emergence of rookie Josh Norman in training camp, and he has looked capable thus far. The emergence of Norman has helped this unit as Captain Munnerlyn was abused last season, but he has been able to slide into the nickel which is really where he is best due to his small size. The loss of Hakeem Nicks should help this unit as well in terms of match-ups. I still expect the Giants, and specifically Victor Cruz, to make big plays, but I don't think it will be enough. Also, the Panthers DC is Sean McDermott, who came over after being fired by the Eagles. McDermott is well versed in the Giants' offense, as he was the Eagles DC for two years and an assistant for several before. I expect McDermott's experience facing Eli and the Giants offense to be crucial in preparing on a short week. In McDermott's two seasons as DC against Eli Manning, he has held the Giants to 17 pts on two meetings at home although the Giants offense was much more successful in the meetings at home.
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