I just made couple phone calls,,, pinnacle still has it at 1.787 (which is roughly -127),,, a lot of locals have it at +10/+05 ,,, other off shore books still have good odds,,, -150 is way off from what i see and just found out from sports books
Yeah, I wish I had PINNY as one of my books. Anyone know of a way to bypass the system? Do share!
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Quote Originally Posted by K4ngur13:
I just made couple phone calls,,, pinnacle still has it at 1.787 (which is roughly -127),,, a lot of locals have it at +10/+05 ,,, other off shore books still have good odds,,, -150 is way off from what i see and just found out from sports books
Yeah, I wish I had PINNY as one of my books. Anyone know of a way to bypass the system? Do share!
Pittsburgh I love...and I am absolutely riding that train with you....echoed a lot of the same feeling in my preview thread.
San Fran I disagree with simply because of Alex Smith. Schedule does help them...but it's tough to win in this league without an above average QB.
Cincy UNDER 5.5 wins seems too easy....great pick.
NFC East we have pretty similar...I'm a little higher on the Eagles, but 10 wins is certainly reasonable.
NFC North we have just about the exact same as well...Packers and then the rest
NFC South I have the Falcons/Saints flipped...but still very good...I dont see a way in hell the Panthers win 6 games.
NFC West nobody cares about...but I like the Rams over the Niners simply because they have a QB who proved himself in his rookie season and they brought in some decent weapons.
AFC East I like but I don't have the Pats w/12 wins because of their defense. Ranked near the bottom last year and didn't really improve unless you want to count Haynesworth as an improvement
Definitely agree with the AFC North as well...Steelers should run away with it.
AFC South is going to be the hardest division to cap IMO with the injury to Peyton. Titans and Jags riding the rookie QB's will be the big difference because I don't see Hasselbeck and McCown doing much.
AFC West is right on...you must have copied my predictions on the Chiefs!! I see a huge fall w/them as well
BOL to ya Bodio...If only we had some NBA to cap as well we would both be happy
Yeah, Pittsburgh seems like an 'automatic' play to me. The O/U at 10.5 wins seems way too low. I just looked at all the data again, and I don't see how the Steelers don't win at least 12 games this year (injuries of course, maybe some really bad luck, etc.).
49ers is a total 'value' bet. Yes, I understand what you're saying about the Rams having the best QB in the division, and I don't disagree. But he's NOT there yet! His Yards per PA last year was one of the lowest in the league. Most NFL QB's can throw 5-10 yards the field. Let's see how Bradford does throwing the ball a little further to his fairly mediocre receivers. And then throw in the fact that Rams' first 7 games of the season are BRUTAL, and I see this team really losing their 'mojo' early in the season. Remember how 'hyped' up Niners were last year. I think they were at -175 to win the division in 2010. Now you're telling me they go from -175 to +250 with addition of Harbaugh, Edwards, and Smith, their 1st round pick. Rams are now too 'hyped' up in my opinion. As bad as Alex Smith is right now, he's not much worse than Bradford in his 'sophomore' season. I think next year is when Bradford will really shine, being in the McDaniels' offense for the 2nd year and possibly acquiring an elite receiver to help him out. As of right now, I feel Niners are greatly overrated and at +250 to win that division, it's a solid investment from my perspective.
I think AFC South is actually going to be pretty easy to cap. Houston Texans and then the rest of the teams. Texans' D is going to be much improved this year and their offense is top notch already. Jags and Titans are clearly in rebuilding modes and Indy is without Manning. This division is for Houston for the taking and I think they will.
Pats D was pretty decent last year. They might have allowed a lot of yards but they allowed 8th fewest points in the league, which to me is a more critical factor. A lot of young guys got experience last year and I see them all improving significantly in 2011. Pats will be very tough to beat but I think PIT could do it.
Nice discussion. Good luck this season. I'm going to go read your thread right away to check out your predictions.
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Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:
Pittsburgh I love...and I am absolutely riding that train with you....echoed a lot of the same feeling in my preview thread.
San Fran I disagree with simply because of Alex Smith. Schedule does help them...but it's tough to win in this league without an above average QB.
Cincy UNDER 5.5 wins seems too easy....great pick.
NFC East we have pretty similar...I'm a little higher on the Eagles, but 10 wins is certainly reasonable.
NFC North we have just about the exact same as well...Packers and then the rest
NFC South I have the Falcons/Saints flipped...but still very good...I dont see a way in hell the Panthers win 6 games.
NFC West nobody cares about...but I like the Rams over the Niners simply because they have a QB who proved himself in his rookie season and they brought in some decent weapons.
AFC East I like but I don't have the Pats w/12 wins because of their defense. Ranked near the bottom last year and didn't really improve unless you want to count Haynesworth as an improvement
Definitely agree with the AFC North as well...Steelers should run away with it.
AFC South is going to be the hardest division to cap IMO with the injury to Peyton. Titans and Jags riding the rookie QB's will be the big difference because I don't see Hasselbeck and McCown doing much.
AFC West is right on...you must have copied my predictions on the Chiefs!! I see a huge fall w/them as well
BOL to ya Bodio...If only we had some NBA to cap as well we would both be happy
Yeah, Pittsburgh seems like an 'automatic' play to me. The O/U at 10.5 wins seems way too low. I just looked at all the data again, and I don't see how the Steelers don't win at least 12 games this year (injuries of course, maybe some really bad luck, etc.).
49ers is a total 'value' bet. Yes, I understand what you're saying about the Rams having the best QB in the division, and I don't disagree. But he's NOT there yet! His Yards per PA last year was one of the lowest in the league. Most NFL QB's can throw 5-10 yards the field. Let's see how Bradford does throwing the ball a little further to his fairly mediocre receivers. And then throw in the fact that Rams' first 7 games of the season are BRUTAL, and I see this team really losing their 'mojo' early in the season. Remember how 'hyped' up Niners were last year. I think they were at -175 to win the division in 2010. Now you're telling me they go from -175 to +250 with addition of Harbaugh, Edwards, and Smith, their 1st round pick. Rams are now too 'hyped' up in my opinion. As bad as Alex Smith is right now, he's not much worse than Bradford in his 'sophomore' season. I think next year is when Bradford will really shine, being in the McDaniels' offense for the 2nd year and possibly acquiring an elite receiver to help him out. As of right now, I feel Niners are greatly overrated and at +250 to win that division, it's a solid investment from my perspective.
I think AFC South is actually going to be pretty easy to cap. Houston Texans and then the rest of the teams. Texans' D is going to be much improved this year and their offense is top notch already. Jags and Titans are clearly in rebuilding modes and Indy is without Manning. This division is for Houston for the taking and I think they will.
Pats D was pretty decent last year. They might have allowed a lot of yards but they allowed 8th fewest points in the league, which to me is a more critical factor. A lot of young guys got experience last year and I see them all improving significantly in 2011. Pats will be very tough to beat but I think PIT could do it.
Nice discussion. Good luck this season. I'm going to go read your thread right away to check out your predictions.
bodio great write-ups, your insight and analysis is truly appreciated. just wondering when your picks for week 1 will be posted?
Most likely friday. I'm passing on the thursday night game. Gun to my head I'd play the UNDER in that one. Better yet, I think Packers + Steelers 7-pt teaser is a solid 'action' wager which I will most likely make.
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Quote Originally Posted by suave_11:
bodio great write-ups, your insight and analysis is truly appreciated. just wondering when your picks for week 1 will be posted?
Most likely friday. I'm passing on the thursday night game. Gun to my head I'd play the UNDER in that one. Better yet, I think Packers + Steelers 7-pt teaser is a solid 'action' wager which I will most likely make.
Damn Bodio I hate to see you so hard on the bears! My team as well but they did get to the championship game with a shitty oline last season- and losing to gb is more motivation than the vikes can muster up this year with all discpline and other probs last year -mcscabb does not have it anymore imo- agree with you on stafford stayin healthy bein huge for det- but the Lions need more than a nice loookin young roster and a healthy staff to convince me>> most of all i agree with you on the schedule what a beach of a start for the bears
Agree with you on Detroit. Way too much hype and I don't see them making the playoffs just yet. Dallas is a team that has ZERO hype and I'm pretty high on them in 2011. We shall see
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Quote Originally Posted by oldstyle:
Damn Bodio I hate to see you so hard on the bears! My team as well but they did get to the championship game with a shitty oline last season- and losing to gb is more motivation than the vikes can muster up this year with all discpline and other probs last year -mcscabb does not have it anymore imo- agree with you on stafford stayin healthy bein huge for det- but the Lions need more than a nice loookin young roster and a healthy staff to convince me>> most of all i agree with you on the schedule what a beach of a start for the bears
Agree with you on Detroit. Way too much hype and I don't see them making the playoffs just yet. Dallas is a team that has ZERO hype and I'm pretty high on them in 2011. We shall see
The one caution I would have with Pitt is their age. Look at that defense and their ages, some of those guys are long in the tooth. You may wanna take 20 minutes and look at the last sb runner ups from the last 20 years, it is insightful. Crash
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The one caution I would have with Pitt is their age. Look at that defense and their ages, some of those guys are long in the tooth. You may wanna take 20 minutes and look at the last sb runner ups from the last 20 years, it is insightful. Crash
Haha no he wasnt a coach but talk about the worst person or anything you can possibly think of for any team. This dude ruined us for many years and he has the nerve to go on tv and act like he knows what he is talking about. And people actually hire him......I dont get it???
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
hehe...what about Matt Millen?
Haha no he wasnt a coach but talk about the worst person or anything you can possibly think of for any team. This dude ruined us for many years and he has the nerve to go on tv and act like he knows what he is talking about. And people actually hire him......I dont get it???
Sorry- see you noted their age. Look, they will have injuries at that age and will be a step slower. They still have the genius running the show but it could be a long year for this squad. Ben is only one co-ed away from a big suspension.
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Sorry- see you noted their age. Look, they will have injuries at that age and will be a step slower. They still have the genius running the show but it could be a long year for this squad. Ben is only one co-ed away from a big suspension.
I would just like to say how accurate your depictions of the Miami Dolphins was. I know this team inside and out and you put the nail right on the head.
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I would just like to say how accurate your depictions of the Miami Dolphins was. I know this team inside and out and you put the nail right on the head.
Most likely friday. I'm passing on the thursday night game. Gun to my head I'd play the UNDER in that one. Better yet, I think Packers + Steelers 7-pt teaser is a solid 'action' wager which I will most likely make.
Bodio dont you think teasing the Saints would be a lot better bet? 4+7=11 for a team that averaged 24 ppg last season. Thats 35 is the Pack gonna score 35? If so then over is the play. Plus your crossing zero with Pack. Not good value in crosssing zero. But love Pitt on a tease crossing all the key numbers and once again a good team who can score give them 8 to start and its almost a ...k. I love teasing good teams who score who are getting 2-3 pts. Take the Pack last year never lost by 7.
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Most likely friday. I'm passing on the thursday night game. Gun to my head I'd play the UNDER in that one. Better yet, I think Packers + Steelers 7-pt teaser is a solid 'action' wager which I will most likely make.
Bodio dont you think teasing the Saints would be a lot better bet? 4+7=11 for a team that averaged 24 ppg last season. Thats 35 is the Pack gonna score 35? If so then over is the play. Plus your crossing zero with Pack. Not good value in crosssing zero. But love Pitt on a tease crossing all the key numbers and once again a good team who can score give them 8 to start and its almost a ...k. I love teasing good teams who score who are getting 2-3 pts. Take the Pack last year never lost by 7.
The one caution I would have with Pitt is their age. Look at that defense and their ages, some of those guys are long in the tooth. You may wanna take 20 minutes and look at the last sb runner ups from the last 20 years, it is insightful. Crash
If you have the info, please do share.. But I'm pretty sure the difference between Steelers this year and SB runner ups in the past is that they experience much more turnover and don't play 'soft' schedules like PIT has this year. Totally different situations/teams/etc.
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Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:
The one caution I would have with Pitt is their age. Look at that defense and their ages, some of those guys are long in the tooth. You may wanna take 20 minutes and look at the last sb runner ups from the last 20 years, it is insightful. Crash
If you have the info, please do share.. But I'm pretty sure the difference between Steelers this year and SB runner ups in the past is that they experience much more turnover and don't play 'soft' schedules like PIT has this year. Totally different situations/teams/etc.
Sorry- see you noted their age. Look, they will have injuries at that age and will be a step slower. They still have the genius running the show but it could be a long year for this squad. Ben is only one co-ed away from a big suspension.
any team could have injuries. Like I've mentioned in the write-up, their schedule is 'cake'. I think it's going to be a very 'short' year for PIT :)
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Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:
Sorry- see you noted their age. Look, they will have injuries at that age and will be a step slower. They still have the genius running the show but it could be a long year for this squad. Ben is only one co-ed away from a big suspension.
any team could have injuries. Like I've mentioned in the write-up, their schedule is 'cake'. I think it's going to be a very 'short' year for PIT :)
I would just like to say how accurate your depictions of the Miami Dolphins was. I know this team inside and out and you put the nail right on the head.
Really? wow.. glad we are on the same page. Honestly, Miami is a team that I truly don't know as much about as I would like.
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Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:
I would just like to say how accurate your depictions of the Miami Dolphins was. I know this team inside and out and you put the nail right on the head.
Really? wow.. glad we are on the same page. Honestly, Miami is a team that I truly don't know as much about as I would like.
Bodio dont you think teasing the Saints would be a lot better bet? 4+7=11 for a team that averaged 24 ppg last season. Thats 35 is the Pack gonna score 35? If so then over is the play. Plus your crossing zero with Pack. Not good value in crosssing zero. But love Pitt on a tease crossing all the key numbers and once again a good team who can score give them 8 to start and its almost a ...k. I love teasing good teams who score who are getting 2-3 pts. Take the Pack last year never lost by 7.
Yeah that's true but I have Jermichael Finley in one of my fantasy leagues and will be cheering on the Packers in this one so need to have them in a teaser! Remember, this is what an 'action' play is for -- FUN! :)
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Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:
Bodio dont you think teasing the Saints would be a lot better bet? 4+7=11 for a team that averaged 24 ppg last season. Thats 35 is the Pack gonna score 35? If so then over is the play. Plus your crossing zero with Pack. Not good value in crosssing zero. But love Pitt on a tease crossing all the key numbers and once again a good team who can score give them 8 to start and its almost a ...k. I love teasing good teams who score who are getting 2-3 pts. Take the Pack last year never lost by 7.
Yeah that's true but I have Jermichael Finley in one of my fantasy leagues and will be cheering on the Packers in this one so need to have them in a teaser! Remember, this is what an 'action' play is for -- FUN! :)
Really? wow.. glad we are on the same page. Honestly, Miami is a team that I truly don't know as much about as I would like.
Well they are a team that very few people outside of Miami, and a few of their fans know anything about. I am more excited about this defense than I have been in the last 5 or 10 years. They have a great cornerback tandem in Davis/Smith (smith struggled early in the year but since his week 3 benching has really turned it around.) Dansby is the heart of the defense, he really fires up the troops and is as consistant as you can hope for. They lack playmakers at linebackers other than Dansby, but losing Channing Crowder could be great for this defense. He only forced 3 turnovers in alittle less than 3 seasons, not too productive. Miami's line is pretty fierce, Wake had 14.5 sacks in 13 games and they have a very underated Nose tackle in Paul Solai (he just scored a well deserved contract.) They also have a young guy Jarred Odrick with was injured all of last year who should also help the D-line. Add Jason Taylor on 3rd downs, and the fact this is Nolan's second year with the Defense, and I expect the Fins to improve on the great defensive season they had last year.
The obvious question is on offense. They have the playmakers in Marshall, Bess, Fasano and Bush, but like you said it all depends on quarterback play. It sucks because Henne has all the tools needed to be a great NFL QB, but he lacks confidence. After last year, Miami fired their offensive coordinator Dan Henning and for good reason. He was by-far one of the worst O-coordinators in football, you will not find ONE Dolphins fan who will miss him. He was way too conservative and only gave Henne two or three receivers on a given pass route. Henne also didn't have the option to audible (which goes back to Henne lacking confidence.) I really expect this offense to spread it out and throw it a lot more, which is the best thing for them IMO. Miami's run game won't be highly noted as last year, but again could be more productive with a new coordinator and better play calling. I expect Bush to get around 10 carries and 5 receptions a game to spread the defense out, and Thomas to get about 15 carries as a powerback. Lastly, Miami had trouble last year on the O-line. They were injury depleted and had to start a tackle at center for the last 6 games of the year (hence why they drafted a center 1st round.) Sparano was an offensive line coach, so much,much more has been expected of his Offensive line than he has produced. Hopefully they stay healthy.
Sorry for the rambling, but I thought I'd help you get a better grasp on the Dolphins. I can see them going anywhere from 7-9 (If Henne comes out and COMPLETLY shits the bed, which I personally don't think will happen.) To 11-5, the Afc east is one of the toughest divisions in football, but the Fins went 11-5 in 2008, one year after going 1-15. All in all, the Dolphins are a dangerous team and I'm looking forward to this season with high hopes.
Bol this season
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Really? wow.. glad we are on the same page. Honestly, Miami is a team that I truly don't know as much about as I would like.
Well they are a team that very few people outside of Miami, and a few of their fans know anything about. I am more excited about this defense than I have been in the last 5 or 10 years. They have a great cornerback tandem in Davis/Smith (smith struggled early in the year but since his week 3 benching has really turned it around.) Dansby is the heart of the defense, he really fires up the troops and is as consistant as you can hope for. They lack playmakers at linebackers other than Dansby, but losing Channing Crowder could be great for this defense. He only forced 3 turnovers in alittle less than 3 seasons, not too productive. Miami's line is pretty fierce, Wake had 14.5 sacks in 13 games and they have a very underated Nose tackle in Paul Solai (he just scored a well deserved contract.) They also have a young guy Jarred Odrick with was injured all of last year who should also help the D-line. Add Jason Taylor on 3rd downs, and the fact this is Nolan's second year with the Defense, and I expect the Fins to improve on the great defensive season they had last year.
The obvious question is on offense. They have the playmakers in Marshall, Bess, Fasano and Bush, but like you said it all depends on quarterback play. It sucks because Henne has all the tools needed to be a great NFL QB, but he lacks confidence. After last year, Miami fired their offensive coordinator Dan Henning and for good reason. He was by-far one of the worst O-coordinators in football, you will not find ONE Dolphins fan who will miss him. He was way too conservative and only gave Henne two or three receivers on a given pass route. Henne also didn't have the option to audible (which goes back to Henne lacking confidence.) I really expect this offense to spread it out and throw it a lot more, which is the best thing for them IMO. Miami's run game won't be highly noted as last year, but again could be more productive with a new coordinator and better play calling. I expect Bush to get around 10 carries and 5 receptions a game to spread the defense out, and Thomas to get about 15 carries as a powerback. Lastly, Miami had trouble last year on the O-line. They were injury depleted and had to start a tackle at center for the last 6 games of the year (hence why they drafted a center 1st round.) Sparano was an offensive line coach, so much,much more has been expected of his Offensive line than he has produced. Hopefully they stay healthy.
Sorry for the rambling, but I thought I'd help you get a better grasp on the Dolphins. I can see them going anywhere from 7-9 (If Henne comes out and COMPLETLY shits the bed, which I personally don't think will happen.) To 11-5, the Afc east is one of the toughest divisions in football, but the Fins went 11-5 in 2008, one year after going 1-15. All in all, the Dolphins are a dangerous team and I'm looking forward to this season with high hopes.
Bodio thanks for the stellar handicapping you provide for all of us! Your efforts are always appreciated by me and others I am sure. GL with all your plays in every sport. I laid several futures bets weeks' ago and a few of them you have listed:
My biggest is 3600 to win 3000 CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -120. I like you looked repeatedly at their schedule and cannot fathom how they can get to 6 wins. They would have to win every iff game plus a few upsets. I see them going 4-12 or 3-13. It is now at -150/-155 at all my outlets.
Also heavily on OVER 10.5 wins PITTSBURGH. As you said their schedule is easy on paper and they are set up both offensively and defensively to continue their AFC eliteness. I only differ with you on SanFran ) 7.5. I have them U7.5. I am a huge 49er fan and follow them very closely. Harbaugh is the right man for the job but he essentially gutted the defense for his type of player and the offense is still led by inconsistent Alex Smith. Playmakers are good but not the QB. They have an easier schedule but this is a quasi rebuilding year for Harbaugh and the franchise. I would be shocked if they win 8 games. I have St Louis +160 to win the division. Tougher schedule but better team overall...they had some nice offseason pickups that filled key holes and have a great young QB who is intelligent.....more so than A Smith. Either way GL and thanks again for all the awesome handicapping.
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Bodio thanks for the stellar handicapping you provide for all of us! Your efforts are always appreciated by me and others I am sure. GL with all your plays in every sport. I laid several futures bets weeks' ago and a few of them you have listed:
My biggest is 3600 to win 3000 CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -120. I like you looked repeatedly at their schedule and cannot fathom how they can get to 6 wins. They would have to win every iff game plus a few upsets. I see them going 4-12 or 3-13. It is now at -150/-155 at all my outlets.
Also heavily on OVER 10.5 wins PITTSBURGH. As you said their schedule is easy on paper and they are set up both offensively and defensively to continue their AFC eliteness. I only differ with you on SanFran ) 7.5. I have them U7.5. I am a huge 49er fan and follow them very closely. Harbaugh is the right man for the job but he essentially gutted the defense for his type of player and the offense is still led by inconsistent Alex Smith. Playmakers are good but not the QB. They have an easier schedule but this is a quasi rebuilding year for Harbaugh and the franchise. I would be shocked if they win 8 games. I have St Louis +160 to win the division. Tougher schedule but better team overall...they had some nice offseason pickups that filled key holes and have a great young QB who is intelligent.....more so than A Smith. Either way GL and thanks again for all the awesome handicapping.
Yeah, I wish I had PINNY as one of my books. Anyone know of a way to bypass the system? Do share!
you have to live in canada is the easiest way of doing it,,, have a family member or a relative,,, maybe a friend register for ya,,, there is no easy way anymore as they track the AP address,,, so if they see you you are in US all the time they will shut you down,,,
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio:
Yeah, I wish I had PINNY as one of my books. Anyone know of a way to bypass the system? Do share!
you have to live in canada is the easiest way of doing it,,, have a family member or a relative,,, maybe a friend register for ya,,, there is no easy way anymore as they track the AP address,,, so if they see you you are in US all the time they will shut you down,,,
you have to live in canada is the easiest way of doing it,,, have a family member or a relative,,, maybe a friend register for ya,,, there is no easy way anymore as they track the IP address when you make phone calls,,, and when they see you make them from US only they will shut you down,,,
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CORRECTION
Quote Originally Posted by K4ngur13:
you have to live in canada is the easiest way of doing it,,, have a family member or a relative,,, maybe a friend register for ya,,, there is no easy way anymore as they track the IP address when you make phone calls,,, and when they see you make them from US only they will shut you down,,,
Good luck this year, I will start betting football after I see some trends. Week one I loved CLE, Pats, Arizona and all lines moved like crazy!!! I must be on to something! I don't like them as much with the inflated values now tho.
Regarding your SF to win the division, that could happen, but with no QB, I wouldn't put a nickle on that team. That is going out on a serious limb there!! I could play QB for that team. Pitt to make playoffs at 2-1 is great value. Cincy under 5.5 as bad as they are at QB, they are strong up the middle and that is a bad bet in my opinion. I see them squeezing out 5-7 wins. 5.5 there is no value there.
J E T S JET JETS JETS
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Good luck this year, I will start betting football after I see some trends. Week one I loved CLE, Pats, Arizona and all lines moved like crazy!!! I must be on to something! I don't like them as much with the inflated values now tho.
Regarding your SF to win the division, that could happen, but with no QB, I wouldn't put a nickle on that team. That is going out on a serious limb there!! I could play QB for that team. Pitt to make playoffs at 2-1 is great value. Cincy under 5.5 as bad as they are at QB, they are strong up the middle and that is a bad bet in my opinion. I see them squeezing out 5-7 wins. 5.5 there is no value there.
Well they are a team that very few people outside of Miami, and a few of their fans know anything about. I am more excited about this defense than I have been in the last 5 or 10 years. They have a great cornerback tandem in Davis/Smith (smith struggled early in the year but since his week 3 benching has really turned it around.) Dansby is the heart of the defense, he really fires up the troops and is as consistant as you can hope for. They lack playmakers at linebackers other than Dansby, but losing Channing Crowder could be great for this defense. He only forced 3 turnovers in alittle less than 3 seasons, not too productive. Miami's line is pretty fierce, Wake had 14.5 sacks in 13 games and they have a very underated Nose tackle in Paul Solai (he just scored a well deserved contract.) They also have a young guy Jarred Odrick with was injured all of last year who should also help the D-line. Add Jason Taylor on 3rd downs, and the fact this is Nolan's second year with the Defense, and I expect the Fins to improve on the great defensive season they had last year.
The obvious question is on offense. They have the playmakers in Marshall, Bess, Fasano and Bush, but like you said it all depends on quarterback play. It sucks because Henne has all the tools needed to be a great NFL QB, but he lacks confidence. After last year, Miami fired their offensive coordinator Dan Henning and for good reason. He was by-far one of the worst O-coordinators in football, you will not find ONE Dolphins fan who will miss him. He was way too conservative and only gave Henne two or three receivers on a given pass route. Henne also didn't have the option to audible (which goes back to Henne lacking confidence.) I really expect this offense to spread it out and throw it a lot more, which is the best thing for them IMO. Miami's run game won't be highly noted as last year, but again could be more productive with a new coordinator and better play calling. I expect Bush to get around 10 carries and 5 receptions a game to spread the defense out, and Thomas to get about 15 carries as a powerback. Lastly, Miami had trouble last year on the O-line. They were injury depleted and had to start a tackle at center for the last 6 games of the year (hence why they drafted a center 1st round.) Sparano was an offensive line coach, so much,much more has been expected of his Offensive line than he has produced. Hopefully they stay healthy.
Sorry for the rambling, but I thought I'd help you get a better grasp on the Dolphins. I can see them going anywhere from 7-9 (If Henne comes out and COMPLETLY shits the bed, which I personally don't think will happen.) To 11-5, the Afc east is one of the toughest divisions in football, but the Fins went 11-5 in 2008, one year after going 1-15. All in all, the Dolphins are a dangerous team and I'm looking forward to this season with high hopes.
Bol this season
Henne lacks BRAINS. I agree. Fish will be tough this year. They are built strong up the middle too. If Long can stay healthy they will be a tough out.
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Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:
Well they are a team that very few people outside of Miami, and a few of their fans know anything about. I am more excited about this defense than I have been in the last 5 or 10 years. They have a great cornerback tandem in Davis/Smith (smith struggled early in the year but since his week 3 benching has really turned it around.) Dansby is the heart of the defense, he really fires up the troops and is as consistant as you can hope for. They lack playmakers at linebackers other than Dansby, but losing Channing Crowder could be great for this defense. He only forced 3 turnovers in alittle less than 3 seasons, not too productive. Miami's line is pretty fierce, Wake had 14.5 sacks in 13 games and they have a very underated Nose tackle in Paul Solai (he just scored a well deserved contract.) They also have a young guy Jarred Odrick with was injured all of last year who should also help the D-line. Add Jason Taylor on 3rd downs, and the fact this is Nolan's second year with the Defense, and I expect the Fins to improve on the great defensive season they had last year.
The obvious question is on offense. They have the playmakers in Marshall, Bess, Fasano and Bush, but like you said it all depends on quarterback play. It sucks because Henne has all the tools needed to be a great NFL QB, but he lacks confidence. After last year, Miami fired their offensive coordinator Dan Henning and for good reason. He was by-far one of the worst O-coordinators in football, you will not find ONE Dolphins fan who will miss him. He was way too conservative and only gave Henne two or three receivers on a given pass route. Henne also didn't have the option to audible (which goes back to Henne lacking confidence.) I really expect this offense to spread it out and throw it a lot more, which is the best thing for them IMO. Miami's run game won't be highly noted as last year, but again could be more productive with a new coordinator and better play calling. I expect Bush to get around 10 carries and 5 receptions a game to spread the defense out, and Thomas to get about 15 carries as a powerback. Lastly, Miami had trouble last year on the O-line. They were injury depleted and had to start a tackle at center for the last 6 games of the year (hence why they drafted a center 1st round.) Sparano was an offensive line coach, so much,much more has been expected of his Offensive line than he has produced. Hopefully they stay healthy.
Sorry for the rambling, but I thought I'd help you get a better grasp on the Dolphins. I can see them going anywhere from 7-9 (If Henne comes out and COMPLETLY shits the bed, which I personally don't think will happen.) To 11-5, the Afc east is one of the toughest divisions in football, but the Fins went 11-5 in 2008, one year after going 1-15. All in all, the Dolphins are a dangerous team and I'm looking forward to this season with high hopes.
Bol this season
Henne lacks BRAINS. I agree. Fish will be tough this year. They are built strong up the middle too. If Long can stay healthy they will be a tough out.
Well they are a team that very few people outside of Miami, and a few of their fans know anything about. I am more excited about this defense than I have been in the last 5 or 10 years. They have a great cornerback tandem in Davis/Smith (smith struggled early in the year but since his week 3 benching has really turned it around.) Dansby is the heart of the defense, he really fires up the troops and is as consistant as you can hope for. They lack playmakers at linebackers other than Dansby, but losing Channing Crowder could be great for this defense. He only forced 3 turnovers in alittle less than 3 seasons, not too productive. Miami's line is pretty fierce, Wake had 14.5 sacks in 13 games and they have a very underated Nose tackle in Paul Solai (he just scored a well deserved contract.) They also have a young guy Jarred Odrick with was injured all of last year who should also help the D-line. Add Jason Taylor on 3rd downs, and the fact this is Nolan's second year with the Defense, and I expect the Fins to improve on the great defensive season they had last year.
The obvious question is on offense. They have the playmakers in Marshall, Bess, Fasano and Bush, but like you said it all depends on quarterback play. It sucks because Henne has all the tools needed to be a great NFL QB, but he lacks confidence. After last year, Miami fired their offensive coordinator Dan Henning and for good reason. He was by-far one of the worst O-coordinators in football, you will not find ONE Dolphins fan who will miss him. He was way too conservative and only gave Henne two or three receivers on a given pass route. Henne also didn't have the option to audible (which goes back to Henne lacking confidence.) I really expect this offense to spread it out and throw it a lot more, which is the best thing for them IMO. Miami's run game won't be highly noted as last year, but again could be more productive with a new coordinator and better play calling. I expect Bush to get around 10 carries and 5 receptions a game to spread the defense out, and Thomas to get about 15 carries as a powerback. Lastly, Miami had trouble last year on the O-line. They were injury depleted and had to start a tackle at center for the last 6 games of the year (hence why they drafted a center 1st round.) Sparano was an offensive line coach, so much,much more has been expected of his Offensive line than he has produced. Hopefully they stay healthy.
Sorry for the rambling, but I thought I'd help you get a better grasp on the Dolphins. I can see them going anywhere from 7-9 (If Henne comes out and COMPLETLY shits the bed, which I personally don't think will happen.) To 11-5, the Afc east is one of the toughest divisions in football, but the Fins went 11-5 in 2008, one year after going 1-15. All in all, the Dolphins are a dangerous team and I'm looking forward to this season with high hopes.
Bol this season
Great stuff! Thanks for sharing. I agree 100% that this Miami D has a chance to be very special. I love DEFENSE in NFL when it comes to looking at games and Miami is definitely one of the better defensive teams. I agree that Nolan in his 2nd year has a chance to do some 'damage.
Offensively, I love the move to get rid of their OC from last year. He was terrible! Bringing in some new RB's and opening up the offense for Henne are positives in my opinion. I look for Miami to do well this season. Too bad they're in a very tough division or else this could be a playoff team.
By the way, the fact that they're getting +7 at home against NE week 1 tells you all you need to know about public perception here. I can see Miami winning this one outright! (might be my favorite play this whole weekend...more analysis on this one to come)
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Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:
Well they are a team that very few people outside of Miami, and a few of their fans know anything about. I am more excited about this defense than I have been in the last 5 or 10 years. They have a great cornerback tandem in Davis/Smith (smith struggled early in the year but since his week 3 benching has really turned it around.) Dansby is the heart of the defense, he really fires up the troops and is as consistant as you can hope for. They lack playmakers at linebackers other than Dansby, but losing Channing Crowder could be great for this defense. He only forced 3 turnovers in alittle less than 3 seasons, not too productive. Miami's line is pretty fierce, Wake had 14.5 sacks in 13 games and they have a very underated Nose tackle in Paul Solai (he just scored a well deserved contract.) They also have a young guy Jarred Odrick with was injured all of last year who should also help the D-line. Add Jason Taylor on 3rd downs, and the fact this is Nolan's second year with the Defense, and I expect the Fins to improve on the great defensive season they had last year.
The obvious question is on offense. They have the playmakers in Marshall, Bess, Fasano and Bush, but like you said it all depends on quarterback play. It sucks because Henne has all the tools needed to be a great NFL QB, but he lacks confidence. After last year, Miami fired their offensive coordinator Dan Henning and for good reason. He was by-far one of the worst O-coordinators in football, you will not find ONE Dolphins fan who will miss him. He was way too conservative and only gave Henne two or three receivers on a given pass route. Henne also didn't have the option to audible (which goes back to Henne lacking confidence.) I really expect this offense to spread it out and throw it a lot more, which is the best thing for them IMO. Miami's run game won't be highly noted as last year, but again could be more productive with a new coordinator and better play calling. I expect Bush to get around 10 carries and 5 receptions a game to spread the defense out, and Thomas to get about 15 carries as a powerback. Lastly, Miami had trouble last year on the O-line. They were injury depleted and had to start a tackle at center for the last 6 games of the year (hence why they drafted a center 1st round.) Sparano was an offensive line coach, so much,much more has been expected of his Offensive line than he has produced. Hopefully they stay healthy.
Sorry for the rambling, but I thought I'd help you get a better grasp on the Dolphins. I can see them going anywhere from 7-9 (If Henne comes out and COMPLETLY shits the bed, which I personally don't think will happen.) To 11-5, the Afc east is one of the toughest divisions in football, but the Fins went 11-5 in 2008, one year after going 1-15. All in all, the Dolphins are a dangerous team and I'm looking forward to this season with high hopes.
Bol this season
Great stuff! Thanks for sharing. I agree 100% that this Miami D has a chance to be very special. I love DEFENSE in NFL when it comes to looking at games and Miami is definitely one of the better defensive teams. I agree that Nolan in his 2nd year has a chance to do some 'damage.
Offensively, I love the move to get rid of their OC from last year. He was terrible! Bringing in some new RB's and opening up the offense for Henne are positives in my opinion. I look for Miami to do well this season. Too bad they're in a very tough division or else this could be a playoff team.
By the way, the fact that they're getting +7 at home against NE week 1 tells you all you need to know about public perception here. I can see Miami winning this one outright! (might be my favorite play this whole weekend...more analysis on this one to come)
Bodio thanks for the stellar handicapping you provide for all of us! Your efforts are always appreciated by me and others I am sure. GL with all your plays in every sport. I laid several futures bets weeks' ago and a few of them you have listed:
My biggest is 3600 to win 3000 CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -120. I like you looked repeatedly at their schedule and cannot fathom how they can get to 6 wins. They would have to win every iff game plus a few upsets. I see them going 4-12 or 3-13. It is now at -150/-155 at all my outlets.
Also heavily on OVER 10.5 wins PITTSBURGH. As you said their schedule is easy on paper and they are set up both offensively and defensively to continue their AFC eliteness. I only differ with you on SanFran ) 7.5. I have them U7.5. I am a huge 49er fan and follow them very closely. Harbaugh is the right man for the job but he essentially gutted the defense for his type of player and the offense is still led by inconsistent Alex Smith. Playmakers are good but not the QB. They have an easier schedule but this is a quasi rebuilding year for Harbaugh and the franchise. I would be shocked if they win 8 games. I have St Louis +160 to win the division. Tougher schedule but better team overall...they had some nice offseason pickups that filled key holes and have a great young QB who is intelligent.....more so than A Smith. Either way GL and thanks again for all the awesome handicapping.
I agree with you that St Louis is a better team than the Niners. The reason for taking 49ers +250 to win the division is purely from a 'value' standpoint, and it comes from the fact that Rams' first 7 games are brutal (one easy game in there). If they go 3-4 they'll be alright, but I can see them going 2-5 to start the season and that to me would be too much to overcome. 49ers are the 2nd best team in the division (but not that far from the Rams) and even though I hate Alex Smith (he does blow), maybe Harbaugh could improve his game (he has a history of that with QB's) enough where San Fran makes some 'noise' this year. In any case, that's my hope. This division is there for the taking and 49ers go from -175 favorites to win it last year to +250 this year?? To me that's too much value on the Niners.
We shall see. Good luck
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Quote Originally Posted by Vanrush:
Bodio thanks for the stellar handicapping you provide for all of us! Your efforts are always appreciated by me and others I am sure. GL with all your plays in every sport. I laid several futures bets weeks' ago and a few of them you have listed:
My biggest is 3600 to win 3000 CINCINNATI UNDER 5.5 -120. I like you looked repeatedly at their schedule and cannot fathom how they can get to 6 wins. They would have to win every iff game plus a few upsets. I see them going 4-12 or 3-13. It is now at -150/-155 at all my outlets.
Also heavily on OVER 10.5 wins PITTSBURGH. As you said their schedule is easy on paper and they are set up both offensively and defensively to continue their AFC eliteness. I only differ with you on SanFran ) 7.5. I have them U7.5. I am a huge 49er fan and follow them very closely. Harbaugh is the right man for the job but he essentially gutted the defense for his type of player and the offense is still led by inconsistent Alex Smith. Playmakers are good but not the QB. They have an easier schedule but this is a quasi rebuilding year for Harbaugh and the franchise. I would be shocked if they win 8 games. I have St Louis +160 to win the division. Tougher schedule but better team overall...they had some nice offseason pickups that filled key holes and have a great young QB who is intelligent.....more so than A Smith. Either way GL and thanks again for all the awesome handicapping.
I agree with you that St Louis is a better team than the Niners. The reason for taking 49ers +250 to win the division is purely from a 'value' standpoint, and it comes from the fact that Rams' first 7 games are brutal (one easy game in there). If they go 3-4 they'll be alright, but I can see them going 2-5 to start the season and that to me would be too much to overcome. 49ers are the 2nd best team in the division (but not that far from the Rams) and even though I hate Alex Smith (he does blow), maybe Harbaugh could improve his game (he has a history of that with QB's) enough where San Fran makes some 'noise' this year. In any case, that's my hope. This division is there for the taking and 49ers go from -175 favorites to win it last year to +250 this year?? To me that's too much value on the Niners.
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but they did get to the championship game with a shitty oline last season- and losing to gb is more motivation than the vikes can muster up this year with all discpline and other probs last year -mcscabb does not have it anymore imo- agree with you on stafford stayin healthy bein huge for det- but the Lions need more than a nice loookin young roster and a healthy staff to convince me>> most of all i agree with you on the schedule what a beach of a start for the bears
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