Biggest NFL bet for me in a long time.....

Love Dallas here... like you said they should be 2.5 to 3 point favs.

Moneyline value for sure

Yikes my gut says they start 0-3.

Iam a firm believer in the gut feel here's a quick story.

Last year me and my younger brother were at the Flamingo playing baccarat over the span of 4 days we probably won over 15k betting 200-500  a hand.  At one point he called 13 in a row which freaked out the asian guys on the table. 

On the fifth day one of the Asian guys stops us on the way to the elevator and says he has a 30k marker and needs help.  He asks my bro what is the secret? what pattern is he looking for.

My bro skips the story telling bullshit and says its all gut feel you either have it or you don't.

When the gut is on ride that wave it is better than anything else in the world, when the gut is off take a break.

 

Good Luck Van I probably won't play that game anyways.

GL with the plays Van

don't take cowgirls

He like the Rams because the Redskins and McNabb are looking ahead to playing the Eagles next week

I only took 1 total

I understand your ml play on Dallas but Houston seems to be well-balanced run and pass with a good defense and qb.  Dallas better be ready or they go 0-3.  GL!

gL brother

BOL Vanzack  tomorrow  

Love the Dallas play, this game is their year!

always appreciate your input. haven't started looking at football too much till bases wrap. bol

BOL Van

Not a Skins fan,if they have anything left after their collapse at home,the Rams get blown out..Rams haven't won at home since 2008..GL...Van...

this is what happens today with a COWGIRLS-PK!  if they could not beat the sorry ass bears in there own house,what makes you think there going to beat HOUSTON. which will be the only thing big in TEXAS to talk about the rest of the week.. 28-24 houston.

On these forums, whenever anyone makes a pick there is a writeup along with it. Some long some short – but lots of people will read a writeup and piggyback a pick because the writeup sounds convincing. The writeup could be nothing more than storytelling – someone who has a gut feeling about a game and then goes searching for backup to his pick in order to tell the best story. In the end, we are all attracted to this. Studies have shown that results are secondary to the story – that in fact the best storytellers are followed more than those with better results and no storytelling. I find that very interesting.


This is so true.  In fact, one could almost make a case for every side and total of every game.  Just depends on what statistics you deem most important at the time.  I bet most gamblers look at a game on paper and immediately know who they like.  The next thing they do is "crunch numbers" (my favorite Covers quote) and then hope they can find stats, trends, whatever to back the their original gut feeling.

Vanzack, I thought you might have taken a shot with the Lions +12 - Vikings have scored just 9 and then 10 points in each of their 2 games.  Lions are improved - even with Stafford out, I think this one will be close.  I'm not a Lions fan at all (in fact I placed a small wager on them at under 5 1/2 wins), but I think Vikes are a mess, I'm even thinking if Lions ever pull off the upset today, Favre might (finally for real) retire this week.

THUROW!  Great point of view being the gambler i am thats pretty much the wat i see it also.One can spend hours on this site and read all-kinds of stuff to make them feel better about there choice,but stats and trends dont lie,somrtimes all u have is a GUT-FEELING! good luck this week  ( i have won alot of bets on a Gut-Feeling ) 

i can't get this game out of my head (and i am a lions "fan" )

As many cases as people can make for why the Lions suck and why Minny should just finally pull it together, all i see is a Lions team that could be 2-0 had just one or two things went another way, and a Minny team that could start the year 0-7!. Seriously, if the lions do find a way to win today, what will that shlep Childress do in a bye week with a dying Favre and a team in shambles to change course? They come out the bye @ JEts, vs Boys, @ GB, @ NE. Vikings are in BIG trouble. They have played just good enough to have earned their 0-2 start and i don't see what could have happened during this weeks practices to make the team gel

all that being said, they matchup well with the lions, and who knows maybe they take out some frustration and pound the lions. But imo the Lions will come motivated and the Vikings will be hanging their heads if they don't come out the gate on fire (last years game Det @ Minny lions hung around only down 10-3 at the half)

i don't know, i can see how the Vikings could run away with it, but if the Lions continue to come and play scrappy with some fire, and Vikings are still flat (and flat out shitty), i think we could see a snowball effect of the Childress shitpile and maybe even a lions outright win

i like the Rams as well, they suck but so do the skins and i think the 4' is just too much, in the same way van said 3' is.

a local of mine has NO -3 @ -110, no way am i passing on that. i have a gut feeling the saints pull it together, especially now that they've been able to game plan their offense without R Bush. when the saints get the ground game going with Thomas, Brees gets on fire

NE -14' is just absurd, their defense is pretty piss poor, even if Buffalo sucks to all hell, more then two TD's is a lot to ask of a shitty defense.

Van, why on Earth did you play that total? i have no opinion of it, just seems out of place on your card

thanks for posting Van. i really appreciate the insight you bring to the forum.

It's hard for me to picture an outright Lions win, but at +450 or +500 on the ML, it maybe worth a few dollars.  Watching the Vikes play the last couple of weeks, Favre seems to look so disinterested, I really think he was going to retire when his teammates talked him out of it.  I do agree Lions would figure to be a team who Vikings could put it all together against (public seems to think so, line opened at 10, though public is wrong in these spots more often than not) - I think pressure of facing 0-3 may get to this team and Favre may throw a couple of picks.

if you can get Lions @ +500 on the ML, that suggests that they need to win this game 17% of the time for it to be profitable.

no way in hell would i put my neck in the gauntlet to suggest that Minny wins this game today more then 83% of the time, but still, not sure if i want to piss any money away gambling that the lions play hard for four quarters, minny comes in still flat, and somehowh lions win the game. i know i said i'm a fan but i don't give a piss about any team i root for when it comes down to money. i have bet against the lions way more then i've bet on them. except this year, 2-0 ATS and should have won week 1 outright, could have easily won last week too.

Vick had to run around a lot and make some plays to save their ass, Favre won't be able to do that, but his Oline is lightyears better then the Eagles.  again, i can see minny taking out some frustration on detroit. but can also see an inspired lions team making the goings frustrating early, and if both teams go in at half in a battle, then i'd love the lions chances. Shwartz > Childress

Like 'em all except Rams...Skins by 7

Great Stuff- Dallas wins today and they're right back in the NFC East race, especially if Rams take out 'skins. Real tough spot for 'skins after difficult loss last week. In Houston's case we're asking this team to win back-to-back NFC East road games, that's hard any year. Then, combine cross state rival (BIG BROTHER - little brother so to speak) and it becomes that much more difficult. McNabb had his way with this secondary and really did WIN without that stupid timeout BS. I like VAN's thinking. BOL