Quote Originally Posted by BetATL:
In my opinion, the market for pre-season football is a lot less sharp than it is for regular season and therefore easier to take advantage of. I actually believe that issues with unpredictability (playing time, play calling, desire to win, etc.) can favor the bettor over the oddsmaker. Like any sport, pre-season can be profitable if you do enough research and know what you're looking for.
However, betting pre-season football isn't for everybody. Just like betting baseball, college football, NBA, college basketball or any other sport isn't for some people. There isn't universal answer here.
I agree. I've bet preseason 9 straight years and have yet to have a losing season. I haven't gotten rich, but clearly you CAN come out ahead:
2001 23-17, +4.52 units
2002 27-20, +5.66 units
2003 27-23, +2.07 units
2004 15-14, 0.00 units
2005 17-13, +3.00 units
2006 11-10, +0.35 units
2007 15-10, +3.90 units
2008 16-7, +8.30 units
2009 12-10, +0.80 units
TOTAL: 163-124, +28.50 units
My keys are pretty simple:
1) Bet ONLY dogs. Some decent percentage of games are decided in the 4th quarter by guys who are going to get cut, so those games are essentially random. If you are in a random situation, it's sure as heck better to have +3 than -3. Also, the strategy the coaches use in preseason differs in one major respect: if they get the "tying" TD late in the game, instead of kicking the point after and going to OT, they go for 2 to win by 1 or lose by 1. No coach or player wants OT in exhibitions. So there is a much higher % of 1-point games in preseason. There were 8 1-point games in 65 preseason games last year, then there were just 6 1-point games in the entire 256 game NFL season! So once again, if you are betting only dogs, you can't lose when one of those 1 point games comes up and you'll likely win, unless you are just getting 1.
2) Pay attention to what the coaches say about how long their first, second string are going to play and look for edges (but only if it's a dog!)
3) Look for schedule edges. I have to go against Dallas tomorrow, they are playing their 2nd game in just 5 days and have travelled a lot during the past 7 days (San Antonio --> Dallas --> Canton --> Dallas in a 4 day span last week).
4) Look at coaches' previous preseason records. Some coaches take preseason games a bit more seriously, some don't. Guys coming up from college really seem to overdo it. Look at teams that might be motivated to do well in preseason (coach on the hot seat, coming off very bad season, revenge motivation, etc).
, like kickers need practice with extra points, why not of just went for a 2 point conversion. That last drive made no sense, yes I got burned however it just made no sense to me at all. I am done with Preseason after watching that shiiit. 
... DONE!
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