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ARIZONA ........40-1 to win Super Bowl......

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Legend
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Posted: #26
The very next day the line drops to 35-1 ........someone else has my idea
 
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Posted: #27
Odds mathematical value? 

Monetary value in the end? 

Hold on.... I'm searching for a toilet paper roll icon...
 
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Posted: #28
       or               


you choose

 
Legend
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Posted: #29
thanks chilly.....big asset to the covers community
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

thanks chilly.....big asset to the covers community


just trying to help
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I see a little value simply because they will get a home game and at these odds I can let game one ride and then hedge my bet for 3 games.....Dallas,TB or Atlanta look like mostt possible matchups...I think they can beat any of these teams at home.....and then, the Giants or Carolina would be tough, but not impossible....NFC is pretty weak this year imo.......

thoughts??




They cant run the ball and thats going to hurt when they are throwing every 3rd and 3
 
Legend
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Posted: #32
i agree rbg......i know they cant run the ball.....but anything can happen in these games....az COULD get hot....its not that improbable...
 
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Posted: #33
No Defense no Superbowl
 
Legend
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Posted: #34
balt is ok, but they arent even in the playoffs yet....gotta beat dallas and then probably win again.....
 
AZ on the other hand is in and will play at least one game at home.....thats why I took them at 40-1......value
 
 
 
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Posted: #35
At 40-1 it has some value.
 
If this exact same situation were to repeat itself each year for the next 40 years, Arizona should win the SB at least once.
 
Even if they only have a 33% chance of winning each of their first three playoff games, the odds of them winning ALL three is ony 26 to 1 against.

1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/27 = 26 to 1 against
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I see a little value simply because they will get a home game and at these odds I can let game one ride and then hedge my bet for 3 games.....Dallas,TB or Atlanta look like mostt possible matchups...I think they can beat any of these teams at home.....and then, the Giants or Carolina would be tough, but not impossible....NFC is pretty weak this year imo.......

thoughts??


I'm on it as well!!!!! If that offense get's clicking again they're a hard team to stop..
 
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Posted: #37
Train... if you want my opinion... forget about this one and bet Miami at whatever odds they are giving... this may sound crazy, but i have many reasons to suggest it is better than Arizona...
 
1) Arizona has proven (and will again this weekend) that they cannot win on the East coast... and it will be even worse in cold weather... and winning on the East coast is what they will have to do at least twice to get to the Super Bowl (let alone win it)...
 
2) teams that are floundering down the stretch rarely tear through the playoffs... in fact, they usually get bounced in the wildcard game...
 
segue to...
 
3) Miami is one of the hottest teams in football... they have won 7 out of 8, going on 8 of 9, and have a realistic chance to win the division, giving them a home game to start the playoffs...
 
4) they play tough-minded football... they run it well, and play defense... we all know that is a formula for success in the NFL postseason...
 
5) Arizona is soft... mind you, i really like the Cards, and would love for them to make the Superbowl... i WILL be rooting for them in every game they play... but unlike Miami, they do not run it well, and frequently crumble on defense...
 
i don't know what kind of odds you can get for Miami, but i'm guessing it's better than 40-1... i have little doubt that Miami will make the playoffs... they are very well-coached, and if you can get something like 80-1 or 100-1 at this point, that, to me, is a better bet...
 
just my opinion...
 
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Posted: #38

oh i forgot another important angle...

the NFC is playing much better football than the AFC, so the road to the superbowl will be easier in the AFC than the NFC... Miami isn't a team that either Indy or Pitt would be excited to face... but i don't think teams like the Giants, Panthers or even the Cowboys or Eagles would fear Arizona... especially at home...

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

At 40-1 it has some value.
 
If this exact same situation were to repeat itself each year for the next 40 years, Arizona should win the SB at least once.
 
Even if they only have a 33% chance of winning each of their first three playoff games, the odds of them winning ALL three is ony 26 to 1 against.

1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 = 1/27 = 26 to 1 against

 

can't argue with the mathematics of it... value-wise it makes sense... i just think realistically, it might happen once in 40 years, but it's not gonna happen this year...

 
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Posted: #40
of course, if they can even win just the first two games you will have a very good hedge situation, with them being dogs (possibly big dogs) in the NFC championship and then again in the SB...
 
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Posted: #41
good post ice....will look into miami more....
 
just took az b/c they are in 4 sure...miami still needs some things to happen.......
 
thanks for the input...
 
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Posted: #42
I dont think they can win it all either!!!! I'm basically betting $100 that they can win their home game. After that, its hedge city!!!!! Because in 3 games, I got 4 grand backup....they wont be DD dogs in any of the NFC games.....maybe a TD.......

Dont think you guys quite understood me.....



I  AGREE!
 
Captain
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Posted: #43
Last year, the Giants were in the same exact spot
And they won it all..


 
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Posted: #44
It's $100 bucks for christ sakes. If you don't need the hundred to feed your kids or pay your mortgage who gives a damn. This is gambling. People don't have success in this business by making obvious bets. You think this bet is crazy? I was in a contest for 86 grand, winner take all. Got down to the final 4. What would a sane person do? Hedge like mad. I didn't hedge 1 dollar. I won it all anyways but the point is you have to have some balls to make some bank. Hope you took AZ.
 
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Posted: #45
all valid points... interesting point by Gold_Rush...
 
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Posted: #46
actually, to take it a step further, the Colts were in the same position 2 years ago and one it all... have been quite a few wildcard teams who won it all recently...
 
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Posted: #47
AFTER THAT PITIFUL DISPLAY LAST WEEK AGAINST MINNY,I WOULDNT PISS ON THIS TEAM...
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

actually, to take it a step further, the Colts were in the same position 2 years ago and one it all... have been quite a few wildcard teams who won it all recently...

and Pittsburgh as a #6 seed wildcard team the year before.....

 
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Posted: #49
 
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

actually, to take it a step further, the Colts were in the same position 2 years ago and one it all... have been quite a few wildcard teams who won it all recently...

right, so the 6th seed colts hosted the AFC title game against division winning Patriots.

Get you friggin facts straight.

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