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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    A quick lesson, A question, Gambler's Fallacy...

    «First Previous 12
    chic-cardinals
    Wizerguy
    szhcik
    undermysac
    AFNfootballnerd
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 2612
    Posts: 39
    «First Previous 12
     
    chic-cardinals
    chic-cardinals
    Banned
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    Joined: Nov, 2015
    Posts: 7814
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 4:10 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    @dyamarik   I'm hoping that the conversation will eventually evolve and gravitate to trends, and if they correspond with a systematic pattern. But do those patterns even matter if they are just a fallacy in our heads? The whole script thing is another can of worms, even though I did pose the question. I think that there is a real epidemic we have here. To think that "life" or "sports" are staged. When this phenomenon first reared it's ugly head I thought it was just trolling. But it's now apparent that people believe in it whole heartedly, and with such conviction.  It's as if people are just deflecting reason, not coping with reality. It's strange, it's sad, it's puzzling.
     

    In other words, your post is propaganda to deflect from truth. Truth. Truth is not defined by logic or fact.

    How is your approach not cognitive dissonance?

    You choose to believe a theory that you can't prove. You can only show you know a definition of your theory. No where, dies it disprove staged entertainment.

    An entire system and logic can be fabricated. A fact is only something that supports an entirely made up logic.

    That doesn't make it real or true.

    Yours is just another "construct

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    @dyamarik   I'm hoping that the conversation will eventually evolve and gravitate to trends, and if they correspond with a systematic pattern. But do those patterns even matter if they are just a fallacy in our heads? The whole script thing is another can of worms, even though I did pose the question. I think that there is a real epidemic we have here. To think that "life" or "sports" are staged. When this phenomenon first reared it's ugly head I thought it was just trolling. But it's now apparent that people believe in it whole heartedly, and with such conviction.  It's as if people are just deflecting reason, not coping with reality. It's strange, it's sad, it's puzzling.
     

    In other words, your post is propaganda to deflect from truth. Truth. Truth is not defined by logic or fact.

    How is your approach not cognitive dissonance?

    You choose to believe a theory that you can't prove. You can only show you know a definition of your theory. No where, dies it disprove staged entertainment.

    An entire system and logic can be fabricated. A fact is only something that supports an entirely made up logic.

    That doesn't make it real or true.

    Yours is just another "construct

     
    chic-cardinals
    chic-cardinals
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2015
    Posts: 7814
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 4:13 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    "Yes, there are distinct patterns. There are some that entirely indicate who will win." I'll be waiting for those patiently
     

    Pointless childish question. 

    I know a car has many parts and works based on their functions. Doesn't mean I need to know or can tell you why or how.

    I don't need to make correct predictions to know games are staged.

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    "Yes, there are distinct patterns. There are some that entirely indicate who will win." I'll be waiting for those patiently
     

    Pointless childish question. 

    I know a car has many parts and works based on their functions. Doesn't mean I need to know or can tell you why or how.

    I don't need to make correct predictions to know games are staged.

     

     
    Wizerguy
    Wizerguy
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2005
    Posts: 38331
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 4:32 PM ET #28

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny9999: I don't understand why anyone who thinks it's fixed would ever be a gambler. Deflection. Blame the fix instead of thy self for losing one's own money.

    I have a family member that's like that. When he lost..it was fixed, staged, the refs were in on it etc. When the game was going his way though through out, and in the end he won,  not a sound until the next game that was not going his way ..and lost. Its a very perplexed delusional way of thinking, and I pose the same question. If you think games are fixed ..why gamble. Gambling and crying fix is not the problem, losing is. If he only learned how to win, he wouldn't have a problem anymore he was a 40% bettor over the longterm. Like someone playing the slots for years ( 2-3% chance to win in the longterm). You would always hear when the won big...but never kept any records to ever see what they lost...since the first pull of the lever

     

    Great Thread..peace_5

    - The storms will come, the storms will pass -
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny9999: I don't understand why anyone who thinks it's fixed would ever be a gambler. Deflection. Blame the fix instead of thy self for losing one's own money.

    I have a family member that's like that. When he lost..it was fixed, staged, the refs were in on it etc. When the game was going his way though through out, and in the end he won,  not a sound until the next game that was not going his way ..and lost. Its a very perplexed delusional way of thinking, and I pose the same question. If you think games are fixed ..why gamble. Gambling and crying fix is not the problem, losing is. If he only learned how to win, he wouldn't have a problem anymore he was a 40% bettor over the longterm. Like someone playing the slots for years ( 2-3% chance to win in the longterm). You would always hear when the won big...but never kept any records to ever see what they lost...since the first pull of the lever

     

    Great Thread..peace_5

     
    Wizerguy
    Wizerguy
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    Joined: Jan, 2005
    Posts: 38331
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 4:34 PM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: "Yes, there are distinct patterns. There are some that entirely indicate who will win." I'll be waiting for those patiently  Pointless childish question.  I know a car has many parts and works based on their functions. Doesn't mean I need to know or can tell you why or how. I don't need to make correct predictions to know games are staged.

    Games ?... do you mean all games, every single one of them, or certain games. Can you be more specific peace_5

    - The storms will come, the storms will pass -
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: "Yes, there are distinct patterns. There are some that entirely indicate who will win." I'll be waiting for those patiently  Pointless childish question.  I know a car has many parts and works based on their functions. Doesn't mean I need to know or can tell you why or how. I don't need to make correct predictions to know games are staged.

    Games ?... do you mean all games, every single one of them, or certain games. Can you be more specific peace_5

     
    szhcik
    szhcik
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2002
    Posts: 7992
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 4:51 PM ET #30

    @Wizerguy

     A guy who plays slots has a 2-3% chance of winning long term....isnt there a warning on them with a minimum payout warning of in the region of 75%....i agree with the rest tho chief...an_cheers

     

    Some people you will never convince you just try and appease, lunacy and logic are rarely happy bedfellows

    Sweet home ALABAMA
    Reply

    @Wizerguy

     A guy who plays slots has a 2-3% chance of winning long term....isnt there a warning on them with a minimum payout warning of in the region of 75%....i agree with the rest tho chief...an_cheers

     

    Some people you will never convince you just try and appease, lunacy and logic are rarely happy bedfellows

     
    undermysac
    undermysac
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    Posts: 52276
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 5:20 PM ET #31

    A person’s education level may play a role in whether they’re more likely to believe a conspiracy theory, according to a 2016 studyTrusted Source. It found that lower levels of education correlate to a greater likelihood of believing in conspiracy theories.

    “Ideally, one of the things we learn in higher education is critical thinking,” Manly says.

    On the flip side, people with postgraduate degrees believe and push conspiracy theories too. They may even be harder to reason with because they’re overconfident in their position.

    Attorneys Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani defended and perpetuated election fraud claims, for example.

    Cook believes that the more educated a person is, the more difficult it may be to bring them back to reality or even have a healthy conversation with them about their beliefs.

    “It’s not driven by knowledge or intelligence; it’s driven by ideology, beliefs, and identity,” he says. “What that means is that as a person gets more educated, they develop more skills to be able to deny more skillfully.”

    Reply

    A person’s education level may play a role in whether they’re more likely to believe a conspiracy theory, according to a 2016 studyTrusted Source. It found that lower levels of education correlate to a greater likelihood of believing in conspiracy theories.

    “Ideally, one of the things we learn in higher education is critical thinking,” Manly says.

    On the flip side, people with postgraduate degrees believe and push conspiracy theories too. They may even be harder to reason with because they’re overconfident in their position.

    Attorneys Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani defended and perpetuated election fraud claims, for example.

    Cook believes that the more educated a person is, the more difficult it may be to bring them back to reality or even have a healthy conversation with them about their beliefs.

    “It’s not driven by knowledge or intelligence; it’s driven by ideology, beliefs, and identity,” he says. “What that means is that as a person gets more educated, they develop more skills to be able to deny more skillfully.”

     
    AFNfootballnerd
    AFNfootballnerd
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    Posts: 4050
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 5:28 PM ET #32

    I have a coworker who was a former pilot and as smart as rain man but keeps preaching to me about the rapture is coming soon and refuses to take the vaccine because they are infused with chips that will control the population in the future an_timeout

    Reply

    I have a coworker who was a former pilot and as smart as rain man but keeps preaching to me about the rapture is coming soon and refuses to take the vaccine because they are infused with chips that will control the population in the future an_timeout

     
    AFNfootballnerd
    AFNfootballnerd
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 5:34 PM ET #33

    Study trusted source an_roll_laugh

    Reply

    Study trusted source an_roll_laugh

     
    chic-cardinals
    chic-cardinals
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    Joined: Nov, 2015
    Posts: 7814
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 5:34 PM ET #34

    It’s not driven by knowledge or intelligence; it’s driven by ideology, beliefs, and identity,” he says. “What that means is that as a person gets more educated, they develop more skills to be able to deny more skillfully. 

    #################### 

    A Pointless comment that can be applied to your side as well. You think you are more educated.

    Education is not truth. Fact is merely belief in a construct you choose to accept as real

    Reply

    It’s not driven by knowledge or intelligence; it’s driven by ideology, beliefs, and identity,” he says. “What that means is that as a person gets more educated, they develop more skills to be able to deny more skillfully. 

    #################### 

    A Pointless comment that can be applied to your side as well. You think you are more educated.

    Education is not truth. Fact is merely belief in a construct you choose to accept as real

     
    Holyh3llz
    Holyh3llz
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    Posts: 3523
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 5:43 PM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: @dyamarik   I'm hoping that the conversation will eventually evolve and gravitate to trends, and if they correspond with a systematic pattern. But do those patterns even matter if they are just a fallacy in our heads? The whole script thing is another can of worms, even though I did pose the question. I think that there is a real epidemic we have here. To think that "life" or "sports" are staged. When this phenomenon first reared it's ugly head I thought it was just trolling. But it's now apparent that people believe in it whole heartedly, and with such conviction.  It's as if people are just deflecting reason, not coping with reality. It's strange, it's sad, it's puzzling.  In other words, your post is propaganda to deflect from truth. Truth. Truth is not defined by logic or fact. How is your approach not cognitive dissonance? You choose to believe a theory that you can't prove. You can only show you know a definition of your theory. No where, dies it disprove staged entertainment. An entire system and logic can be fabricated. A fact is only something that supports an entirely made up logic. That doesn't make it real or true. Yours is just another "construct
    how are you still here ? 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: @dyamarik   I'm hoping that the conversation will eventually evolve and gravitate to trends, and if they correspond with a systematic pattern. But do those patterns even matter if they are just a fallacy in our heads? The whole script thing is another can of worms, even though I did pose the question. I think that there is a real epidemic we have here. To think that "life" or "sports" are staged. When this phenomenon first reared it's ugly head I thought it was just trolling. But it's now apparent that people believe in it whole heartedly, and with such conviction.  It's as if people are just deflecting reason, not coping with reality. It's strange, it's sad, it's puzzling.  In other words, your post is propaganda to deflect from truth. Truth. Truth is not defined by logic or fact. How is your approach not cognitive dissonance? You choose to believe a theory that you can't prove. You can only show you know a definition of your theory. No where, dies it disprove staged entertainment. An entire system and logic can be fabricated. A fact is only something that supports an entirely made up logic. That doesn't make it real or true. Yours is just another "construct
    how are you still here ? 

     
    szhcik
    szhcik
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2002
    Posts: 7992
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 6:25 PM ET #36

    People will argue black is white if there is enough money involved. Nothing to do with truth or belief.

     

    How many super rich evangelical preachers believe in god. None.

    Sweet home ALABAMA
    Reply

    People will argue black is white if there is enough money involved. Nothing to do with truth or belief.

     

    How many super rich evangelical preachers believe in god. None.

     
    chic-cardinals
    chic-cardinals
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 6:42 PM ET #37

    Quote Originally Posted by szhcik:

    People will argue black is white if there is enough money involved. Nothing to do with truth or belief.   How many super rich evangelical preachers believe in god. None.
     

    Everything has to do with truth.

    If you you are lying for gain, it has everything to do with it. That's problem with the majority.

    They've been misled and don't know they are being lied to.

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by szhcik:

    People will argue black is white if there is enough money involved. Nothing to do with truth or belief.   How many super rich evangelical preachers believe in god. None.
     

    Everything has to do with truth.

    If you you are lying for gain, it has everything to do with it. That's problem with the majority.

    They've been misled and don't know they are being lied to.

     

     
    dyamarik
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 6:53 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:

    It’s not driven by knowledge or intelligence; it’s driven by ideology, beliefs, and identity,” he says. “What that means is that as a person gets more educated, they develop more skills to be able to deny more skillfully.  ####################  A Pointless comment that can be applied to your side as well. You think you are more educated. Education is not truth. Fact is merely belief in a construct you choose to accept as real

    CC, buddy, re-read the highlighted italicized part of your post...  Consider those exact words as you argue your point of view on NFL being scripted... an_light

     

     

    People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:

    It’s not driven by knowledge or intelligence; it’s driven by ideology, beliefs, and identity,” he says. “What that means is that as a person gets more educated, they develop more skills to be able to deny more skillfully.  ####################  A Pointless comment that can be applied to your side as well. You think you are more educated. Education is not truth. Fact is merely belief in a construct you choose to accept as real

    CC, buddy, re-read the highlighted italicized part of your post...  Consider those exact words as you argue your point of view on NFL being scripted... an_light

     

     

     
     
    hart31
    hart31
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    Posted: Nov. 1, 2021 - 6:54 PM ET #39

    @undermysac

     hello under what's your play tonight 

    kc spread or hill or kelce to score a TD ?

    thks

    Reply

    @undermysac

     hello under what's your play tonight 

    kc spread or hill or kelce to score a TD ?

    thks

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