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A look ahead bet for week 15

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Posts: 41

theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 12141

Posted: Dec. 14, 2024 - 10:34 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

This line has jumped all over the place. Re opening at 5 after last weekends games, bet down back to 3.5, and back to 4/4.5. Anyone here have a good argument for backing the Colts? From my understanding through listening to podcasts and reading, pros like the Colts.

Broncos more in regression. My new regression method has a Fade on Broncos.

And look at pts scored.

Broncos off 41 pts, the most they scored all year by 7 pts prior to the past 3 game set . And off 38 pts the 2cd most they scored all year prior to that 3 game set.

And 29 pts would be the 3rd most they scored all year prior to that 3 game set.

Past 3 games easily he most pts over any 3 game set.

They also gave up the least amount of points in 1 game during that 3 game set.

Not sustainable to score at that rate.

Colts should be in this game with possibility to win SU.

theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 12141

Posted: Dec. 14, 2024 - 10:34 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: This line has jumped all over the place. Re opening at 5 after last weekends games, bet down back to 3.5, and back to 4/4.5. Anyone here have a good argument for backing the Colts? From my understanding through listening to podcasts and reading, pros like the Colts. Broncos more in regression. My new regression method has a Fade on Broncos. And look at pts scored. Broncos off 41 pts, the most they scored all year by 7 pts prior to the past 3 game set . And off 38 pts the 2cd most they scored all year prior to that 3 game set. And 29 pts would be the 3rd most they scored all year prior to that 3 game set. Past 3 games easily he most pts over any 3 game set. They also gave up the least amount of points in 1 game during that 3 game set. Not sustainable to score at that rate. Colts should be in this game with possibility to win SU.

Rush51

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 8840

Posted: Dec. 14, 2024 - 9:15 PM ET #28

Richardson vs. Nix... at the end of the day, you're basically betting on 2 rookie QBs ( AR hasn't even played 17 games yet).

Expect the unexpected... more than usual in the NFL.

I want predictably more than anything else in gambling ( who doesn't). But putting faith in a rookie QB is unwarranted ; the sample size just isn't large enough w less than a season of NFL for each.... and yes, this revolves around the QB

Crusher13

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 8049

Posted: Dec. 15, 2024 - 1:17 AM ET #29

Broncos RUN the Rock at WILL vs a very weak Indy Defense which yields 147 RPG..don't overthink it..Beautiful Day in Denver tomorrow.. cool

Bet on Better HC and vastly Improved Rookie QB and SOLID Defense....Rookie long CB ADAMS Draine...you'll know him by HT tomorrow ..kids a stud..Riley who?

Broncos Lock in at least 7th Playoff seed tomorrow...Payton has troops believing in Him And BO....Besides look at Colts Wins on the Road.. paint_help

Richardson is averaging 14 ypa down the field..Highest in NFL..he'll be good for at least 2 interceptions an_light

BRONCOS 9-5 and IN Playoffs tomorrow an_cheers

undermysac

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 52216

Posted: Dec. 15, 2024 - 6:36 AM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

Richardson vs. Nix... at the end of the day, you're basically betting on 2 rookie QBs ( AR hasn't even played 17 games yet). Expect the unexpected... more than usual in the NFL. I want predictably more than anything else in gambling ( who doesn't). But putting faith in a rookie QB is unwarranted ; the sample size just isn't large enough w less than a season of NFL for each.... and yes, this revolves around the QB

No, he hasn't. He's started in 13 games in his career. Same amount of games as Bo Nix.