A look ahead bet for week 15

Broncos -3.5(-110) *2.00/1.82

Both teams off a bye.

The main angle here is that Anthony Richardson sports the worst qbr in the league, 38 of 38. His legs are his main weapon. Remember when he was pulling himself out of a game because he was tired? Well let's see how he holds up in elevation when the Colts have been rpo heavy with him lately. 

In the Colts last 2 road games they've went 2-0. A not so impressive 2-0 imo when you beat the Patriots by 1, and Jets by 1. The only good defenses they've faced on the road were the Vikings(scored 13), and Packers(scored 10). If you throw in Houston(13th in ppga) the Colts put 20 on em. But in a dome, vs a familiar divisional team. Richardson had a 69 yard bomb td pass in that one.

The Colts also have o line problems, the starting center has been out, and the backup missed last game with a concussion. Their starting RT also missed last game.

The only Bronco injury to worry about is starting CB Riley Moss. Dude is a stud. He missed the Browns game and it made Jerry Juedy look like Jerry Rice. He has the bye week to rest that knee, but so do the Colts players.

It's hard to get any decent injury reports on teams with a bye. The look ahead bets are tough this time of year, and they are a roll of the dice regardless. But I gotta think that Denver $ rolls in starting on Monday, so trying to get the best of the #.

Denver 9th in dvoa, Indy 21st.

Denver is 8-5, but expected wins is 8.5-4.5

Indy is 6-7, but expected wins is 5.7-7.3

With a strong HFA, with a proven coach off a bye(9-6 ats off bye, including a su win at Buffalo as a +7.5 dog last year), I think the Broncos win by much more than a FG.

@undermysac

 BOL 

BOL Sac! 

Liked the heads up insight 

@undermysac

Bump

good stuff here 

This line has jumped all over the place.

Re opening at 5 after last weekends games, bet down back to 3.5, and back to 4/4.5.

Anyone here have a good argument for backing the Colts?

From my understanding through listening to podcasts and reading, pros like the Colts.

The only thing I can think of is the Colts are the more desperate of the two. They're "on the bubble" in the wildcard hunt, whereas the Broncos have that 7th seed right now. So which two teams stand in the way of grabbing either the 6th or 7th seed at 8-5 records? The Chargers and the Broncos.

The Broncos are 4-2 at home, and have a true homefield advantage. Their two losses at home came from playoff teams (both the Steelers and the Chargers, losing by a TD in each of those games). The Broncos have coalesced into a better team since that Chargers loss at home on 10/13 -- the more recent of the two losses. Suggesting that the Broncos can't beat the Colts (who are 3-4 in away games) by more than 4 is odd to me. I'm not the sharper than the sharpest tool in the shed, but sometimes the easy bet is just that. 

Bol this week Sac

Anthony Richardson has started in only 3 games outdoors in his career, all in 2024. Patriots, Jets, and Packers.

QB rating indoors 72.0

QB rating outside 67.7

colts should've lost at the patriots. lost every measurable stat category except penalties. but somehow still won 

@undermysac

 Pro money loves Indy and I don’t get it either. Richardson is a horrible quarterback imo. Naturally sharp money likes the dog in many cases but this year has been different. I think taking Indy means expecting an excellent performance by Indy’s defense, which may happen. But, it may only take 17 Denver points to cover the number.

@iConsciousness

 @gambleforfood

@brn2loslive2win

Fwiw, I went pretty heavy on the Browns +4, +3(+115) and ML+185.

Same concept when I faded KC @ Carolina. I think that this spot is even worse for the Chiefs.

GL 

Richardsons overall numbers are brutal…..but…..he did lead his team on last-minute, game winning TD drives in 2 of the last 3 games, which points to his poise under pressure.

One other small factor that I’m starting to consider is if these QBs like Nix Daniels Williams will show signs of hitting the “rookie wall”

I don’t have a strong opinion on this game but GL with your plays 

UMS 

9-6 ats off bye isn’t that great…

off a primetime game against browns and big division game against chargers next - tough spot to back DEN imo.

You can't back Denver in this spot with Riley Moss out. He is Denver's #2 CB. He was out last game against Cleveland and the Denver secondary was a liability despite winning. Josh Downs is back for Indy. They have Pittman and Downs on the outside. Surtain will cover Pittman but Downs will eat. This is the issue for Denver. Take Indy +4

Does "off a prime time game" matter when it was followed by a bye week? I think that the Broncos went back to work in practice. That prime time win is out of their minds imo.

For the 9-6 ats thing, let's break it down in more detail. 

Of all 15 games, Sean Payton was favored in 10 of them. So let's look at those since he is favored this Sunday.

5-5 ats, looks shitty. 7-3 su.

The caveat here is that the average spread in these games was -6.9, and the Saints won them by an average score of 30.2 to 24.

In only 2 games was the spread -3 or less. And that was all the way back in 2005(his first year with Nola), and 2008

@jasondemz

 Yes I mentioned Riley Moss in my OP, the only thing to worry about really. He's a good CB.

If you think that Richardson can avoid pressure, and throw accurately, it's a part of the field he can take advantage of.

broncos 0-5 off mnf game 1-13 before chargers they are 1-3 vs colts l 4 home 

colts are  haeaded up ats  from - 11.5 up to -2.5 denver dropping like  a  rock from +30.5 to +4 to +2.5

If this is real “1-13 before chargers” maybe Broncos really do look ahead. 

Nice post Sac Man 

Love seeing Riley Moss get some love.   Surtain Jr gets all the press and it’s deserved…….

Moss quietly is a STRONG compliment on the other side.