51.9999999% nfl capping winners by NFL_brosuf LOL

In my losing system, it picks the dogs team to win but I ended up flipping it for the mia oh win. 

I have to understand that with every system, there are also variance or fluke of nature that beats such system.  I guess I was too harsh on myself with my first leg on toledo losing.  I need to understand these rules in the art of capping and just give my 3.0 losing system a chance to show itself off. 

There is a game tomorrow, the usc/co game and although my 3.0 losing system does not show a strong indicator, I will not consider such play as my 3.0 losing system.  However, I have to post it so I can monitor and track such system on all scales. 

On one side, it picks usc -22 and this picking has a 67% losing ratio.  On the other side, it also picks usc -22 to win and that one is a 50/50 coin toss. 

Since I need action for Friday, I will once again, go against what my losing system picks.  It says usc -22, I'm taking co +22 at home. 

Here is my own personal reason to why co at home is the play to suck up that spread. 

I've looked at condom's away schedule and if you add the +22, they did not cover in all of their away games.

at az st.  43-22(+22)= 44  Win
at cal     30-9(+22)= 31  Win
at ND   31-17(+22)= 39  Win
at CO  ?? - ??(+22)=    Maybe win?????

Now I looked at co home games. 

cal 36-33 OT (+22) = Win
co st.  28(+22) - 14 = Win
wash st.  31 - 27(+22) = Win
Oregon 45 - 2(+22)= Lose

It shows here that Co is still a tough cookie when playing at home. 
They averages about 22.5 points per game when playing at home.

22.5 + 22 points spread = 44.5

USC averages about 27.5 points per game when playing away. 

So in dollar and sense terms, all Co needs to do is score 1 touch down in the while entire game to put the pressure in usc from covering.

7(+22) = 29
Usc ppg away = 27

I know my math and capping skills are horrible but oh wells.  At least I tried.   LOL 

I'm taking co to lose SU but covering the spread at home. 











 

co team is just horrible.  Their defense is even worse like oh my gosh. 

The key factor in the usc game for co to cover are their two missed field goals.  Lets do the math. 

usc 42
co 17 (missed fg 1) + (missed fg 2) + (22 spread) = 45 

The defense of co let co backers down.  They just can not tackle and they played with small community college size ballers.  Them offensive guys of usc just shook their heads every time they make a play.  It was too easy for them.  USC lines, wr, rb are bigger in sizes against a puny looking team in black uniform. 

I give co credit for even trying and hanging in there.  They made some key 3rd down strikes but that is not enough.  They just allowed usc to make too much 3rd down plays and gave usc a fresh new downs and when you give them that many chances, they will do something special with it. 

Co offense can not run the ball period and yet, they still wanted to run the ball through the gut and towards them big usc linemen.  I'm like what the hell were you thinking?   Count how many times did co lost a down on a screen pass play or a hurried play for a drop ball to that shorty looking RB of theirs?  My goodness, learn what does not work for you and go on with a different scheme of play. 

All of co best plays were their passes.  If that works for you, continue with the passing strike.   I still think that if co puts out a little bit more effort, they could have cover this game.  It just silly for the camera man to shoot the Co's head coach and watch how much me biatch and moan about his guys making chitty plays and penalties.  It was hilarious for real. 

Onto the next game.  I'm throwing one of my cards out and riding a few more for sat.   That card also has neb, olk, ore...all chalk plays with co as the only dog plays.  The dog fawks up my card.  Go figures. 

This here will be a potential system for next week for me.  I call it the 4.0 system but before I can even play it, I must track it's progress for this week.  In the 4.0 system, it shows these as potential winners. 


w kentucky +3
lou tech +3
ok st -21
s miss -9
utep -1
wash +17 

smu -25
virginia -2
navy -7
nc -3


card 1
wash +17
w kentucky +3
lou tech +3
6 to 1 odds

card 2
ok st -21
s miss -9
utep -1
plus adding a bonus on this card here with ok st  -14 
11 to 1 odds 

card 3
smu -25
virginia -2
navy -7
nc -3
11 to 1 odds

I hope there will be some positivity can come out of this 4.0 version and if that is the case, I can overlap 3.0 to 4.0.  If any of these system fails me, fawk the system and I'm throwing it out. 

I'm a squirrel trying to find a nut for the winter season.  It is do or die moment or starve.   

2 more 4 teamers to add.  1 chalk, 1 mix and match cards

card 4
iowa st -14
ok -14
wis -27
ark -5

card 5
utep -1
la tech +3
e mich -3
tex tech +13

I have high confidence on these last 2 cards here.  There is a common denominator in all of these cards.  I uses the 4.0 system to spot check our previous games of the week from Thurs and Friday and it stood firmly.  However, the ones on Tues and weds, it picked losers.  Uh ohhhhh  LOL

I am just hoping that my 4.0 system will stand firmly on sat so that I can have something to rely on when picking against the spread. 

come on and give me a gold mine and prove that education is still fruitful. 

4.0 system

card 4
iowa st -14   loser <-- impressive kansas defense did not give up 50+ points. 
ok -14  winner
wis -27 winner
ark -5 winner

card 5
utep -1 loser
la tech +3  winner
e mich -3 loser <-- e mich is stupid.  4 downs in the 1 yard line with time running out on the 4th and they settled for a tying field goal. 
tex tech +13 loser

card 1
wash +17  push
w kentucky +3  winner
lou tech +3  winner
6 to 1 odds

card 2
ok st -21  loser
s miss -9  winner
utep -1 loser
plus adding a bonus on this card here with ok   -14   winner
11 to 1 odds 

card 3
smu -25  loser
virginia -2  winner
navy -7  winner
nc -3 loser
11 to 1 odds

4.0 system
10-8-1   52%   yeah baby....

3.0 system

w virgina/louville -13.5  loser
e mich/ball st -2.4  loser
uconn/scruze -2  winner
ark/s caro -5  winner
hawaii/utah  -3.5   loser
bama/lsu -5  loser
mich st/mn  -28  loser
wis/purdue -25.5   winner
miss/kentuck -1.5  loser
s fl/rutg  -2.5 loser

picking chalks 3-7 

az st....  Pick UCLA +10   winner
s miss... Pick E. Carolina +8.5   loser
stanford.. Pick Oregon St. +21  loser
hou........ Pick UAB +28  loser
cinn....... Pick Pitts +2.5  loser
utep.......Pick Rice +1  winner
ark st......Pick Fl atl +17  loser

picking dogs  2-5

so overall, version 3.0 is an unstable system.   You can not even tail it for the win and you can not fade it for the win. 

I would like to try out the 4.0 system for next week and see how she holds.  3.0 system is garbage.  Time to move on but glad to know that something does not work. 

I will see if the nfl 3.0 system versus the newly 4.0 system, which one will be the winner. 

3.0 is here from previous posting. 

NFL:
ATL  -7
TB +9
Cleve +11
SF -3.5  
Sea +12
AZ  -2.5
Giants +9
GB - -5.5

MNF:
Chicago +7 

4.0 are these


card 1
sf -4
buff -2.5
no -9
cinn +3

card 2
kc -4
den +7
gb -5.5
pitts -3

winning system moves onto the next week.  Losing system get the fawk out of my thread.   LOL

4.0 over and under system...lets see

kc under 40.5
tb over 50
clev under 41
buff over 45
sf under 37.5
oak under 42.5
ne over 51
pitts under 42

mnf
chi under 47

3.0 system is 6-2 with MNF pending

4.0 system is 5-3

It looks like both systems are in the positive money this week if I were to play straight up.  I chose to play the sucker bet parlay lottery which makes me lose but hey, at least I am more confident in my 3.0 and 4.0 system for this coming week. 

I think I am going to morph 3.0 system against 4.0 and over lap it.  Whoever both system picks as the same, I will play those games straight up.  I think the money to be made is to play straight up.  Fawk lottery parley unless I have a huge card. 

 
2-6

My total capping skill is just no good.   No more total play for me.  The system I'm using does not predict winners for totals so it needs to go bye bye. 

This here is my 4.0 system lean for ncaaf. 

geo tech +1
marshall +18.5 
clemson -16.5 
ok state -17
vandy -13
wyoming +14.5
kansas +20.5
midd tenn +5.5 
georgia -13.5
kansas st +4.5
mn +27.5
ark -14 
west kentucky +41.5
nd -20.5
lousiana tech -2.5
bama -17.5
s miss -8.5



I will probably play straight up bets on my strongest leans

Clemson -16.5
Vandy -13
Ark -14
Louisianan tech -2.5
S. miss -8.5 

If only I hit 3, I'll be making money for the week.  I just hope so because the bankroll is running dry. 

GOOD LUCK BRO....... I WAS WONDERING, HOW MUCH DO YOU THROW ON EACH GAME....?

Since I be having a big azz leans, I put them in a parlay to shrink down my wagering.  Big mistake on my part.  I do half a unit or 50 cents per parlay.   1 Unit for me is $100

Now, I'll just give many leans but I'll end up picking my best 4 or 5 and do a parlay of 3 with it plus straight up bets in hoping to win my first leg so I can harbor back my initial wagering by putting it in my pocket and playing the second leg with my winnings.  Free play or making money for the week is my goal.   I hope it is not too hard to reach. 

I hope I can catch your threads or posts so I can get an insight lean on your pickings as well.   I'm always down for that as well. 

Good luck to us all for this coming games. 

early  leans for the NFL

3.0 system is picking these

dogs:
indy
cinn
oak
buff
denver
NE

chalks:
Hou
Balt

4.0 system is picking these
oak
carolina
det 

There is an overlapping of the 3.0 and the 4.0 system on oakland. 

I will have to see how the system handles the thurs night game in daygo.  If oakland covers then the system has confidence for the rest.  If not then I'll be playing the chalks on  hou, balt and carolina. 

I got a big card but I need to shrink it down. 

ncaaf leans and possible combination plays on parlay and straight wagering for me. 

clemson -16.5
georgia -13.5 
vandy -13 
nd -20
ark -14
so miss -8.5
lou tech  -2.5

I know all chalk but what the hell, I'm no dog predictor and if I dare to pick dogs, I'll end up losing anyway.  Might as well lay the chalk and bet on the better team.   If they do not cover, at least I know I did not put money on a losing team who finally won one or play well enough to keep it close.   

All home fav except for lou tech being away.  Lou tech is a cover machine playing away. 

Adding purdue +7 over Ohio state

and

Louisville -3 over pitts

simple reason is this.   Both ohio state and pitts are horrible away and purdue + Louisville are money maker at home. 

I am so excited to say that I now have an nfl 5.0 system. 

the 3.0 last week came in at 7-2 while the 4.0 came in at 5-3. 

This week, I am putting the 3.0 up against the 4.0 which only has 3 teams to watch for and the newly 5.0 system and let them all rumble with each other.  The losing system will go bye bye and the winner will get a chance to play onto the following week. 

I will have the 5.0 pickings by sat or earlier.  Hopefully I will have a system that will be stable enough to play on a weekly basic.   Dude, I'm running out systems to test for real.   I think my last system will be called the no system for I will tail the best cappers for money.  No brain involve, just let other people do the leg work and I will win when they win.  LOL   

I am happy to see that oakland won under the 3.0 and the 4.0 system

It is still too early to conclude anything but it only builds more confidence in my 3.0 and 4.0 system.   Now comes the 5.0 and I hope there is another overlapping that agrees so that I can have a much higher confidence of more teams being hit. 

I'm wrapping the 5.0 system up right now. 

These are what I have for this week so far.

3.0 system is picking these

dogs:
indy
cinn
oak  win
buff
denver
NE

chalks:
Hou
Balt

4.0 system is picking these
oak  win
carolina
det 

5.0, pending

3.0 system is picking these

dogs:
indy
cinn
oak  win
buff
denver
NE

chalks:
Hou
Balt

4.0 system is picking these
oak  win
carolina
det 

5.0,
carolina
detroit
buff
hou
balt
ne
mia
gb

overlappings are
caro
det
buff
hou
balt
ne

I think I am going to play them overlapping plays.  My system is still unstable and if 1 system is hot, the other is not so when both systems agree, it is either they are both hot or both not.  Too many good games but I'll just shrink it down to this week's best play or no play for me. 

on to my emotional write ups that has nothing to do with the system.  My emotion usually loses.  LOL
caro - are dayam cover machine at home
det - are dayam cover  machine when playing away
buff - I'm not really sure about this one.  Dallas can play at home however, they are not good at covering when playing at home.  Buff on the other hand is a 50/50 toss up when playing away but if they were playing at buffalo, more confidence for them bills. 
hou - same as buff, ......
balt - blah blah but the spread is cheap enough to swallow
ne - this bet here is scary.  I might stay away from this one.  Jet is 4-0 su at home and they cover 3-1 at home.  NE is about 50/50 covering when playing away.  My emotion will say that NE is still a good enough team to put up 30+ points after they skunked 2 games back to back.  I hope the public backs up jets with them stats so NE is the fading the public's play.  This game here smells like that oak/daygo game where the public is dead wrong. 

But, by all means, when playing a system, you are not allow to chicken out or use your emotions when you bet on them.  The system is what it is, a system who could care less to who or what these teams are all about.  If it cap the oakland game to beat daygo on thurs night, who am I to judge it? 

Winner of the better system stays and the loser goes bye bye unless I want to keep it around to do a 6.0 and that system is a combination of everything and play only the overlaps.  Good luck to us all this weekend. 

update:



Looks like my strongest leans are doing ok so far.  Tough loss on the clemson game.  I am just happy the system is able to pick them dog winners or possible upsets. 

This here is my 4.0 system lean for ncaaf. 

geo tech +1   Loser
marshall +18.5   loser
clemson -16.5  loser
ok state -17  winner
vandy -13  winner
wyoming +14.5  winner
kansas +20.5  winner
midd tenn +5.5  loser
georgia -13.5  winner
kansas st +4.5  winner
mn +27.5 loser
ark -14  winner
west kentucky +41.5  winner 
nd -20.5  winner
lousiana tech -2.5  winner
bama -17.5   winner
s miss -8.5   loser

11-6  64% 

Clemson -16.5    loser
Vandy -13   winner
Ark -14  winner
Louisianan tech -2.5  winner
S. miss -8.5  loser

3-2   60% 

Looks like the ncaaf 4.0 system is holding onto another positive day.   Not much of a win but more than 51% is good for straight bettors. 

Ncaaf 4.0 system gets to ride by itself to another week.  Same drill, I will have a long list and with those, I will shrink it down by using filters to collect me some winners. 

I'm excited about my nfl systems.  It is like I have manny pac part 2 vs. manny pac part 3 vs. marquez part 3.  Boy, marquez was the better fighter but he lost by decision.  Sounds like a vegas rig to set up for part 4 and make more money.

system 3.0 vs. 4.0 vs. 5.0.  

Lets get ready to rumbleeeeeeee

3.0 system is picking these

dogs:
indy    loser
cinn  loser
oak  win
buff  loser
denver  winner
NE  pending

chalks:
Hou   winner
Balt  loser

4.0 system is picking these
oak  win
carolina  loser
det    loser

5.0,
carolina   loser
detroit  loser
buff  loser
hou  winner
balt  loser
ne  pending
mia  winner
gb   pending

overlappings are
caro   loser
det  loser
buff   loser
hou  winner
balt  loser
ne  pending

The system is interesting.  One week, it was super strong and the next, it skunk like there is no tomorrow.  Maybe there is a week that the system will lose to and this week 10 is such week.  I will continue to use the same tactics and track while adding a filtration and then track against it to see what outcome I will get out of it. 

Until then, I will save my money and no betting for me until I get a strong reading.  I will continue to track my plays and I will play the week after for sure since I will be up in Reno, Nevada for thanksgiving Sat. 

I had high hopes for Balt to rape seattle but failed to see one important thing.  A possible let down after a big win against Pitts from last week.

If the system holds, I might even fade az and sea after their big win on week 10. 

Back to capping ncaaf.....

week 10 for ncaaf, the 4.0 system went

11-6  64%  total
7-2 77% picking fav

This week, I also had a long listing but I added a filter to shrink it down and here it is.   I am looking forward to hitting more than week 10 scoring at 64%. 

ok st -24
toledo -14
louville -1
ark st -12
ucla -9.5
stanford
ark -13
buff -11.5
georgia -28.5
temple -13
wake -10.5
hou -19.5
navy -5
boise st -16.5 
kansas st +9
new mexico st +23
lou tech +6.5
w. kentucky -3
tcu -33

I will give you a play now that I am going to pound it hard for this weekend in the NFL. 

Take the rams over seattle. 

this is a let down game for seattle after the public saw how good they were when they spanked baltimore at their own house.  Now they are in another man's house and things will not be the same for them. 

My biggest lean after realizing that the ref who is going to ref this game Carl Cheffers, is 7 home and 1 away. 

Ram -1 is my play of the week. 

do allow me to practice my ML parlay.  this week is practice.  next week, I'll be in reno and I'm playing for real. 

n illinois
az st
ark
ark st
auburn
boise st
houston
lsu
mich st
ok st
oregon

11 teams ML parlay, I wonder what it'll pay...hrmmmmmmm

adding georgia and tcu  hee heee

13 teamer  ML parlay.   What does $100 get me?