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43-16 YTD, Week 7 on deck....

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Posted: #51
Good stuff theory
 
Prospect
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by theory:

I do, but it is a no play for me....I would look seriously at the UNDER since LJ is out and this will show a KC team playing tough at home building off of their win.  Steer clear....

thanks browe what is your top pick of the day I want to load up and make some money

 
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Posted: #53
Both teams are off a bye and Tennessee is more than a TD ROAD FAV. 
Same scenario that the Giants had against Cleveland. The only difference is the Browns played Monday night while Tennesee will certainly be looking ahead to its showdown with Indy next Monday night, to keep that undefeated mark alive.  Simply put, they are looking ahead because the Chiefs will be a pushover right? 
 
Home dogs with bad records off a bye are always a team you want to take, especially if they lost the previous game. 
 
Over the last three years Tennessee has won just 3 road games by MORE THAN 9 points. This is not a team that you want to lay big numbers with as they are only averaging 23 ppg their last 10.
 
The Titans win with defense and a solid running attack. To expect a team with that type of gameplan to win by double-digits is just simply too much to ask. They are averaging just 4.7 yards per play, better than just eight other teams.

In 20+ seasons, the Chiefs have been home underdogs of seven or more points just two times. They won both of those games straight up. This won't be a walk in the park for the Titans. 
 
You heard it here first!
 
So says the THEORY.....
 
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Posted: #54
My top plays would have to be....
 
Pitt -9.5
Indy -1.5
KC +9
Tampa Bay -10
 
in that order....
 
 
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Posted: #55
I am getting frustrated with this Dallas crap....I am ready to take it off the board completely...Romo plays, Romo isnt playing....SIGH!!!  Romo does not play, take the UNDER.
 
Whatever the case, go very small on this one.  I like the UNDER, but its hard to read because we wont know who the QB will be.  This was the last pick to make the card and i am wondering if it should even be there now....Tough call, but play small on it.
 
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Posted: #56
I also don't understand the KC pick without LJ.. theyre 29th in total yards, 31st in points, 32nd in passing yards.. their only decent offensive category is 14th in rushing yards and now no LJ plus coming off a buy week..

i'm not criticizing i was just wondering if you can clear up what i'm not seeing with that.
 
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Posted: #57
ok i get what your saying sorry i was typing that up while you were posting that last thing about the kc/ten game.. i took ten is a teaser at +1 though, think kc just covers the 9 points spread or actually wins?
 
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Posted: #58
They will cover....not sure if KC wins straight up.....wish i could give that pick to ya 
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by theory:

My top plays would have to be....
 
Pitt -9.5
Indy -1.5
KC +9
Tampa Bay -10
 
in that order....
 

I  will be laying wood on these games

 
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Posted: #60
would u still do KC with the spread 7.5?
 
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Posted: #61

I wouldnt take the Houston Over

    Detroit sucks and they are on the road so I dont think they will score many points

     Even though Houston has been scoring points, I believe they will blow the lions out and run the ball in the fourth quarter to run the clock out 

What are your thoughts on this?

 
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Posted: #62
Kansas City at 7.5 is a little low...where did you get that line?  Should not be that low yet....proof is in the pudding....the bet is KC!!!
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by jhnbrick:

I wouldnt take the Houston Over

    Detroit sucks and they are on the road so I dont think they will score many points

     Even though Houston has been scoring points, I believe they will blow the lions out and run the ball in the fourth quarter to run the clock out 

What are your thoughts on this?

The Lions are allowing 252.8 total ypg. (30th in NFL)

Allows 171 ypg on the ground (31st in NFL)

 Allows 250 ypg through the air (30th in NFL)

Texans have given up the most TD's this year (20)

Texans have the worst pass rush in NFL (7 sacks)

There will be plenty of opportunities to exploit each other in this game.

Houston is 12-3 OVER at home in a game with a total of between 42 and 49 points. 

Houston has allowed opponents to score an average of 31.6 PPG

Detroit has allowed opponents to score an average of 31.8 PPG

 

Houston OVER to the bank

 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by theory:

Kansas City at 7.5 is a little low...where did you get that line?  Should not be that low yet....proof is in the pudding....the bet is KC!!!
sportsline for my pool
 
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Posted: #65
It is not a bad play....I just like the line @ 9 much better.  I would still consider the 7.5....the game should be much closer than anticipated.
 
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Posted: #66
theory im foolllwing these picks

1 of them i wouldnt touch tho

colts packers over.. cmon you know how peyton runs down the clock throughout the game. if theyre winning in the 4th hell hold the ball for an 8 minute drive. im shaky on tht one
 
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Posted: #67
Hey Theory,
Are you very very confident the Steelers blow out the Bengals tomorrow?
 
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Posted: #68
 
Prospect
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Posted: #69
How about an updated list of your picks for the week.
 
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Posted: #70
Do you still like houston -8.5? 
 
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Posted: #71
Adding KC +9 as well.

BOL this Sun Theory
 
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Posted: #72
nice job theory !
 
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Posted: #73
Suspect secondary on each squad.  Indy finally in a groove....Rodgers and grant will play well in a shootout.  Indy will be passing more than running! 
 
Think of it this way is 27-24 a possible score for these two teams?  Sure, Indy only avg. 22.8 ppg and GB avg. 26.6 ppg (which is over 48, by the way) but, since they got past the slow start, the past 3 games are averaging 27.6 ppg.  Green Bay has scored 24 ppg in their last 3. 
 
My prediction: Indy scores in the 30's and GB in the 20's.   I do believe 30+20=50 and that is over 46.5
 

Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games on grass.

Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 home games.

Over is 14-2 in Packers last 16 games following a ATS win.

Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games following a S.U. win.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by RedDevil824:

Hey Theory,
Are you very very confident the Steelers blow out the Bengals tomorrow?

 

Steelers are my number 1 pick of the week!  Rothelisberger is undefeated in the state of Ohio as a pro.  Talk of a Cincy upset is absurd!  Parker is out, but Moore has more than enough power running to get large gains on Cincy....Steelers are rested off the BYE, palmer is out, Steelers GO BIG!!!!!  Expect Santonio Holmes to have his first break-out game!

 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by hilariousbig:

Do you still like houston -8.5? 

 

I still like Houston, but I would not go large on them.  They are still....the Texans!

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