12/8

78-54     +2240

 

PHL  -2 -104

Good luck Raiders.  

@Raiders22

 For some reason I didn’t think you’d be playing this game. Looking over some stats/data I couldn’t really find a huge edge in this one. The only things that stand out to me are these-

LA offensive line is a major issue. Even without Jalen Carter on the other side, the Eagles should get some level of pressure on Herbert. Herbert is playing with the injury and more importantly probably has had less time to prepare for the game because of the injury and everything that goes along with it. 

Philly actually might play better on the road here. They should have tons of fans in the stadium. And for the love of God they get to get away from their own booing home crowd. 

My main concern is Phillys struggling offense vs a very competent one in LAC. Although we have seen some very poor performances this year from the Chargers defense. 

What are the main factors for you laying a short number on the road with Philly?

@brn2loslive2win

 I agree with everything you wrote.

I just think even though they lost 2 games in a row that PHL has played much better teams lately.

I do not think there is hardly any HF advantage.  

The only issue is I wish it was at least an outdoor game.  I wanted the under but for an indoor game it is already kind of low.  PHL is kind of disappointing inside sometimes.

But I initially was going to skip this game.  If I was not up for the week I would for sure skip it.

But LAC passing unit has really slipped a lot.  Can they really run the ball on PHL.  I think both teams will really want to establish and make the run work.  That is why I wanted the under here.  But the line opened above the key number 41 and only moved slightly down below it and barely above it.

So, with a nagging hand injury to Herbert and his limited practice I think they will try to 'force' the run.  I think this will play into the type of game PHL likes and is best at.

PHL has started to look better with the run than they did a bit earlier.  If they can get Barkley going early I think it will open up the passing game for Hurts.

What teams really tend to work on a lot is what they got exploited on the previous game(s) and for PHL that was the run defense.  I do not think LAC can do to them what CHI did.

I realize that PHL will be missing some key guys on the line.  But if Hurts can extend some plays behind the run game and get the ball to Brown it could be huge for them.

LAC has not been bad against the run lately but it has not been against great running teams.

Of course, when you are the defending champs you are going to get everyone's best effort against you.  This coupled with LAC really needing to win to stay in the playoff race and PHL needing to win to try to get the top seed it should make for a playoff-type game.

I think these types of games are where PHL has really excelled in the last few years.  

Lately, when PHL win they win by more than two and LAC when they lose they lose by more than two.

So, I think I am getting the 'better' team in a playoff-type game in a game where the game should be a tough running type game I look at the offensive line and defensive line matchups a bit closer.

Both teams had horrible O-lines with the run early.  Through the season LAC is 30th at BB% 3.287% and PHL is 29th at 3.063%.

But in the last 5 games LAC is 23rd at BB% 2.857% and PHL is 13th at 2.108%.

Overall the O-line for PHL has the 10th WAR at 1.3.  LAC has the 24th O-line WAR at .6.

But if I am wrong on the read of the type game and it plays out to be a wide-open passing game, then I still like PHL to adapt well enough to make it a FG game at the end.  I will take my chances with that type of game with PHL being the one to make the FG at the end.  I always like a team that can win any style game.

 

@brn2loslive2win

 So, you are skipping the game?

@Raiders22

 Go Eagles.

This is going to be a tough game to cap, but I'd like to add a few details to consider for you and @brn2loslive2win.

Herbert had an injury to his non-throwing hand in 2023. He also had to play with broken ribs. He's a gamer. Basically I'm saying he's had plenty of experience learning how to adjust to injuries. And most applicable being the finger he fractured back in '23. I'm not saying this makes things a whole lot easier. Greg Roman (OC) will still have to design plays out of shotgun and pistol. Luckily the Chargers run game has been humming as of late, albeit against run defenses not as stout as the Eagles.

Two things about that though. The Eagles will be without Jalen Carter and the Chargers will be getting back Omarion Hampton, their 1st rd pick, at RB. How much he contributes his first week back, I don't know. But he was looking great before his injury. Paired up with Kimani Vidal and it may allow the Chargers to open up their passing game, where they can attack the short field with Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey and intermediate and deeper with Johnson and Harris. 

Let the Eagles hone in on Gadsden with their league-leading defense against TEs and let the offensive weapons for the Chargers operate.

@Raiders22

 I agree with the play, Good Luck 

@iConsciousness

 Yessir.  Good stuff. 

There has been a noticeable difference without Carter.  But I think they will be able to overcome that enough tonight.

I believe you, and it's most likely what they'll be out of 100% of the time due to Herbert's hand.

The bad news though, the more shotgun that's run in the nfl by certain teams generally have worse offensive #'s than the ones who run plays from under center.

I had some info on that stuff a few weeks ago, don't remember which thread. I'll see what I can find with updated rates.

One thing that's fair to note was that the Chargers' record with Herbert playing with that fractured finger in 2023 was poor. I don't recall exactly what that record was, but they fell out of playoff contention because of that.

I'd lean heavily on that stat but that was with the former coaching staff and they did not have the run game they seemingly have now. We know Roman likes to pound the ball too. Another curveball to consider, but probably too far off this timeline to factor it in. We'll see.

BOL on your play and thanks for your analysis. It'll be interesting to see what the Raiders do this off-season. It's going to be the Simpson, Mendoza, Moore sweepstakes for QB hungry teams, and I think the Raiders will look there with their 1st round pick. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/info-regarding-the-bears-103992563/2

Here you go Icon, posts #33 and #34

Just now, I looked at the Bolts specifically up to this point in the season.

They run shotgun 69.9% of the time, 12th most in the league. They score 23.1 ppg, that's 17th in the league. 

In their last 3 games they've scored 20.7 ppg.

Will 100% shotgun be good or bad for em?

@Raiders22

 I lean towards Philly and was considering a play since the line opened. One thing that has and should be very apparent to all of us gamblers and fans is this-

Baltimore, KC, and Philly have one major thing in common. The fans want to believe that these are good football teams that are struggling to win. Every week we have to speculate on whether or not this will be the week that they wake up. After all we’re talking about championship teams with MVP candidate type players at qb and rb. But at what point do you just decide that these teams are exactly what they’re showing us that they are? Is it possible that these teams are just not good? 

Again tonight in order to back Philly you have to be confident that the offense can produce something. Anything. AJ Brown having 7+ catches and 100+ yards is cute, but it’s not winning. The offense has put a tremendous amount of pressure on the defense. The defense outside of Quinyon Mitchell suddenly looks old and tired. Can they get stops enough to relieve pressure on the offense? Tough bet to make.

Ultimately I believe this game will be won and lost at the line of scrimmage. If Philly can plug up the running lanes and get an average amount of pressure on Herbert I think they come out with a win. But they’ll need to win on the offensive side too. Saquon is not going to have success behind a line that can’t  create holes. Jalen Hurts can’t be the path to success for this offense. 

I think 2.5 is the appropriate line for the game. I’d hate to be on the wrong side of a 1 point game here which in all honesty this game wreaks of a 21-20 24-23 final imo. I think Philly is the right side but I’m not willing to bet on it. I’ve been burned by Philly multiple times this year by convincing myself that this is the week they win convincingly. But I have to see it to believe it at this point. GL Raiders 

https://youtu.be/KmnCArEVKFI?si=UTjcyu2144yq29jp

I'm leaning to the under, and probably gonna tail Raiders22 with Philly. 

GL guys

@Raiders22

 One more thing I’ll add that scares me about Philly is this-

Is this the most vanilla, bland, uncreative offense in the league? The offensive scheme is just so straightforward and simple that it’s maybe become extremely easy to defend. This is part of the reason they struggle imo. Nobody seems scared of this offense anymore. 

It makes sense why playing under center is preferred. I think for more mobile QBs it's less of an issue. Herbert has the 4th most rushing yards among QBs this year with one less game played (although I concede that Lamar Jackson has missed extended time, so objectively you can say he'd most likely be 5th). He's actually does well in avoiding contact while running. The scramble in which he got hurt on against the Raiders was a fluke injury in which his hand was on the receiving end of strong helmet impact.

You're also handing off the ball on designed run plays under center, and I suspect Herbert will still handle those. So really it's just a matter of whether a tandem of Hampton and Vidal can wear down an already handicapped defensive line for the Eagles. It's also fair to say that Hampton may not be as impactful in his first week back. (He practiced mostly in a non-contact jersey this week.)

The problem with Roman's offense is that a lot of these passing plays get converted behind the sticks, so I don't have much faith in Roman there. He's called some great games this year, but they are mostly noticeable because they feel like a surprise with him. We, as Charger fans, have conceded that he is an old school, traditional OC that hasn't adapted much to the current NFL landscape on offense. 

@brn2loslive2win

 I agree to an extent because of those team's talent and past they are big public teams.

But Philly is 9-4 and the others are 6-7.  Plus Philly was 9-2 before the lat two bad games.  

So, I am not too sure they were really 'struggling' to win.  

They may be now though 

I agree with you about the line of scrimmage.  That is why I put a little breakdown oh how Philly's O-line has really improved as of late.

I am okay with -2 but would not be as happy with -2.5 for sure.

I think you are right and it should be an under or a skip.

@undermysac

 

I saw this when you posted.

Good stuff 

I posted my last response while you were digging this up. Thanks for sharing. 

As I mentioned in a separate thread I don't have money on this game (yet), but I like the under. I think the Chargers will have to run a lot and most likely won't have time to throw downfield. The Chargers have one of the best 3d down defenses, so you're going to limit the Eagles offense there by taking away an effective down. Hurts' ability to scramble may be what wins it for the Eagles. The Chargers outside linebacker play hasn't been too great the past few weeks.

Since I'm an addict, and looking through this game like a crackhead now, everything about the game screams under to me.

The Chargers use zone defense 82.1% of the time.

Hurts has ranked below average (around 28th or worse) in passer rating against zone coverage.

The Eagles use motion 42.7%, the 4th least. The Chargers use motion 48%, the 7th least.

The Eagles use play action only 11.8%, the second least. The Chargers use play action 16.5%, middle of the pack.

Eagles shotgun rate is 78.3%, 6th highest. The Chargers use shotgun 69.9%, but as discussed above that may be 100% tonight. 

Both o lines suck in allowing pressure, especially the Chargers. Both o lines have high rush stuff rates.

When it comes to pace, the Chargers avg 30.6 seconds per play, 5th slowest. The Eagles 31, 2nd slowest.

Both offenses are -0.01 epa per play, middling. For reference they are tied with the Bucs and Panthers. The Browns are +0.01.

I'll take a stab at the under. It's at 41.5 now so I'll wait it out. Surely the public is or will be on the over.

@undermysac

Thanks for doing the dirty work on this one. You and I both like the under. Every time I feel confident about a totals bet it goes the other way handily. You can't ignore the data you busted out, though. I'm either playing it or waiting for a half time bet. But I do know that I enjoy a game with my team playing (especially on prime time) when my wallet isn't involved.