Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current HOT STREAK: 30 - 7 (5 weeks)....but regression is anticipated! Sunday: W Jets +3.5-200 Loss Dallas -2-163
YTD 59 - 21 includes 36 - 14*Best Bets
Washington -1.5-173 *BEST BET
GL with your bets, fellas!
Thanks, Fubah2! I took it but my juice was higher -1.5 -200
Dude, at that price why didn't you just take the moneyline?
2
Quote Originally Posted by zircon:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current HOT STREAK: 30 - 7 (5 weeks)....but regression is anticipated! Sunday: W Jets +3.5-200 Loss Dallas -2-163
YTD 59 - 21 includes 36 - 14*Best Bets
Washington -1.5-173 *BEST BET
GL with your bets, fellas!
Thanks, Fubah2! I took it but my juice was higher -1.5 -200
Dude, at that price why didn't you just take the moneyline?
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current HOT STREAK: 30 - 7 (5 weeks)....but regression is anticipated! Sunday: W Jets +3.5-200 Loss Dallas -2-163 YTD 59 - 21 includes 36 - 14 *Best Bets Washington -1.5-173 *BEST BET GL with your bets, fellas!
Well I got major lucky with the Vikings fluke win, so it looks like I will lose this Washington bet now as my regression week continues
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current HOT STREAK: 30 - 7 (5 weeks)....but regression is anticipated! Sunday: W Jets +3.5-200 Loss Dallas -2-163 YTD 59 - 21 includes 36 - 14 *Best Bets Washington -1.5-173 *BEST BET GL with your bets, fellas!
Well I got major lucky with the Vikings fluke win, so it looks like I will lose this Washington bet now as my regression week continues
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current HOT STREAK: 30 - 7 (5 weeks)....but regression is anticipated! Sunday: LOSS Washington -1.5-173 *BEST BET Well I got major lucky with the Vikings fluke win, so it looks like I will lose this Washington bet now as my regression week continues
YTD 59 - 22 includes 36 - 15 *Best Bets
Sweet!
5
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Current HOT STREAK: 30 - 7 (5 weeks)....but regression is anticipated! Sunday: LOSS Washington -1.5-173 *BEST BET Well I got major lucky with the Vikings fluke win, so it looks like I will lose this Washington bet now as my regression week continues
My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022 (week 5) Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe how the teams are performing before betting real money.
A fellow forum member alerted me to a correction for week 10 results......I posted 10 *BBs that day, but above I only list 5 - 4. It should read 6 - 4 and so my posted *BB results have to be increased by one winner.
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022 (week 5) Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe how the teams are performing before betting real money.
A fellow forum member alerted me to a correction for week 10 results......I posted 10 *BBs that day, but above I only list 5 - 4. It should read 6 - 4 and so my posted *BB results have to be increased by one winner.
My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022 (week 5) Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe how the teams are performing before betting real money.
*indicate reduced bet sizes in anticipation of regression
2
My first NFL bet this year was Oct. 10, 2022 (week 5) Annually I prefer to sit out the first few weeks and observe how the teams are performing before betting real money.
In weeks 8 & 9 I hit a 16 - 3 HOT STREAK. At that point I was 22 - 8. That set off alarms for likely "market correction" to knock me down the next week, so I reduced my bet size for week 10 and sure enough it happened.....as I went 6 - 5 but lost a whopping -6.14 units! I presumed the "market corrrection" was over and resumed my usual bet sizes.
Week 11: 7 - 3 Week 12: 9 - 1 I lucked into another HOT STREAK (16 - 4) so once again I reduced my bet sizes for the succeeding weeks until I felt the "regression" had run it's course.
Week 13: 9 - 1 The HOT STREAK actually expanded to 25 - 5! A "regression" was not only expected but imminent, so I reduced my wager sizes again, down to 66% of norm for weeks 14 & 15 and took some advice to just backoff a few bets.
Week 14: 3 - 1 +1.15 units I anticipated a "regression" so I backed off 3 games that my handicapping otherwise indicated were a solid bet, and sure enough all 3 would have lost. Regression hit! But I escaped the consequences by backing off those 3 games. Had I played those, I would have lost -3.17 units for the week. However, I did not feel this "market correction" to my recent 25 - 5 HOT STREAK had ended yet, so I kept my bets down to 66% of normal for week 15.
Week 15: 3 - 3 -2.46 units! Regression hits again! This time, as noted before, I resisted a bet on the RAVENS which I normally would have taken for +8.5 -307 if not for anticipating further regression. Had I played it, my resulting losses would have reached -5.53 units, albeit at only 66% my usual bet size!
Today: YTD 59 - 22 Although officially I bet/posted 6 - 4 for -1.31 units the past 2 weeks during "regression," actually had I followed my handicapping sheets and bet normally, I would have gone 6 - 8 for -8.70 units!! I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week.
More to follow . . .
2
Last weekend (regression week) I lost -2.46 units
Recap to date:
In weeks 8 & 9 I hit a 16 - 3 HOT STREAK. At that point I was 22 - 8. That set off alarms for likely "market correction" to knock me down the next week, so I reduced my bet size for week 10 and sure enough it happened.....as I went 6 - 5 but lost a whopping -6.14 units! I presumed the "market corrrection" was over and resumed my usual bet sizes.
Week 11: 7 - 3 Week 12: 9 - 1 I lucked into another HOT STREAK (16 - 4) so once again I reduced my bet sizes for the succeeding weeks until I felt the "regression" had run it's course.
Week 13: 9 - 1 The HOT STREAK actually expanded to 25 - 5! A "regression" was not only expected but imminent, so I reduced my wager sizes again, down to 66% of norm for weeks 14 & 15 and took some advice to just backoff a few bets.
Week 14: 3 - 1 +1.15 units I anticipated a "regression" so I backed off 3 games that my handicapping otherwise indicated were a solid bet, and sure enough all 3 would have lost. Regression hit! But I escaped the consequences by backing off those 3 games. Had I played those, I would have lost -3.17 units for the week. However, I did not feel this "market correction" to my recent 25 - 5 HOT STREAK had ended yet, so I kept my bets down to 66% of normal for week 15.
Week 15: 3 - 3 -2.46 units! Regression hits again! This time, as noted before, I resisted a bet on the RAVENS which I normally would have taken for +8.5 -307 if not for anticipating further regression. Had I played it, my resulting losses would have reached -5.53 units, albeit at only 66% my usual bet size!
Today: YTD 59 - 22 Although officially I bet/posted 6 - 4 for -1.31 units the past 2 weeks during "regression," actually had I followed my handicapping sheets and bet normally, I would have gone 6 - 8 for -8.70 units!! I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week.
In weeks 8 & 9 I hit a 16 - 3 HOT STREAK. At that point I was 22 - 8. That set off alarms for likely "market correction" to knock me down the next week, so I reduced my bet size for week 10 and sure enough it happened.....as I went 6 - 5 but lost a whopping -6.14 units! I presumed the "market corrrection" was over and resumed my usual bet sizes.
Week 11: 7 - 3 Week 12: 9 - 1 I lucked into another HOT STREAK (16 - 4) so once again I reduced my bet sizes for the succeeding weeks until I felt the "regression" had run it's course.
Week 13: 9 - 1 The HOT STREAK actually expanded to 25 - 5! A "regression" was not only expected but imminent, so I reduced my wager sizes again, down to 66% of norm for weeks 14 & 15 and took some advice to just backoff a few bets.
Week 14: 3 - 1 +1.15 units I anticipated a "regression" so I backed off 3 games that my handicapping otherwise indicated were a solid bet, and sure enough all 3 would have lost. Regression hit! But I escaped the consequences by backing off those 3 games. Had I played those, I would have lost -3.17 units for the week. However, I did not feel this "market correction" to my recent 25 - 5 HOT STREAK had ended yet, so I kept my bets down to 66% of normal for week 15.
Week 15: 3 - 3 -2.46 units! Regression hits again! This time, as noted before, I resisted a bet on the RAVENS which I normally would have taken for +8.5 -307 if not for anticipating further regression. Had I played it, my resulting losses would have reached -5.53 units, albeit at only 66% my usual bet size!
Today: YTD 59 - 22 Although officially I bet/posted 6 - 4 for -1.31 units the past 2 weeks during "regression," actually had I followed my handicapping sheets and bet normally, I would have gone 6 - 8 for -8.70 units!! I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week.
More to follow . . .TNF: Jets +3.5-222
1
[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]
Last weekend (regression week) I lost -2.46 units
Recap to date:
In weeks 8 & 9 I hit a 16 - 3 HOT STREAK. At that point I was 22 - 8. That set off alarms for likely "market correction" to knock me down the next week, so I reduced my bet size for week 10 and sure enough it happened.....as I went 6 - 5 but lost a whopping -6.14 units! I presumed the "market corrrection" was over and resumed my usual bet sizes.
Week 11: 7 - 3 Week 12: 9 - 1 I lucked into another HOT STREAK (16 - 4) so once again I reduced my bet sizes for the succeeding weeks until I felt the "regression" had run it's course.
Week 13: 9 - 1 The HOT STREAK actually expanded to 25 - 5! A "regression" was not only expected but imminent, so I reduced my wager sizes again, down to 66% of norm for weeks 14 & 15 and took some advice to just backoff a few bets.
Week 14: 3 - 1 +1.15 units I anticipated a "regression" so I backed off 3 games that my handicapping otherwise indicated were a solid bet, and sure enough all 3 would have lost. Regression hit! But I escaped the consequences by backing off those 3 games. Had I played those, I would have lost -3.17 units for the week. However, I did not feel this "market correction" to my recent 25 - 5 HOT STREAK had ended yet, so I kept my bets down to 66% of normal for week 15.
Week 15: 3 - 3 -2.46 units! Regression hits again! This time, as noted before, I resisted a bet on the RAVENS which I normally would have taken for +8.5 -307 if not for anticipating further regression. Had I played it, my resulting losses would have reached -5.53 units, albeit at only 66% my usual bet size!
Today: YTD 59 - 22 Although officially I bet/posted 6 - 4 for -1.31 units the past 2 weeks during "regression," actually had I followed my handicapping sheets and bet normally, I would have gone 6 - 8 for -8.70 units!! I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week.
Last weekend (regression week) I lost -2.46 units Recap to date: In weeks 8 & 9 I hit a 16 - 3 HOT STREAK. At that point I was 22 - 8.That set off alarms for likely "market correction" to knock me down the next week, so I reduced my bet size for week 10 and sure enough it happened.....as I went 6 - 5 but lost a whopping -6.14 units!I presumed the "market corrrection" was over and resumed my usual bet sizes. Week 11: 7 - 3Week 12: 9 - 1I lucked into another HOT STREAK (16 - 4) so once again I reduced my bet sizes for the succeeding weeks until I felt the "regression" had run it's course. Week 13: 9 - 1 The HOT STREAK actually expanded to 25 - 5! A "regression" was not only expected but imminent, so I reduced my wager sizes again, down to 66% of norm for weeks 14 & 15 and took some advice to just backoff a few bets. Week 14: 3 - 1 +1.15 unitsI anticipated a "regression" so I backed off 3 games that my handicapping otherwise indicated were a solid bet, and sure enough all 3 would have lost. Regression hit! But I escaped the consequences by backing off those 3 games. Had I played those, I would have lost -3.17 units for the week. However, I did not feel this "market correction" to my recent 25 - 5 HOT STREAK had ended yet, so I kept my bets down to 66% of normal for week 15. Week 15: 3 - 3 -2.46 units! Regression hits again!This time, as noted before, I resisted a bet on the RAVENS which I normally would have taken for +8.5 -307 if not for anticipating further regression. Had I played it, my resulting losses would have reached -5.53 units, albeit at only 66% my usual bet size! Today: YTD 59 - 22 Although officially I bet/posted 6 - 4 for -1.31 units the past 2 weeks during "regression," actually had I followed my handicapping sheets and bet normally, I would have gone 6 - 8 for -8.70 units!!I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week. More to follow . . .
LOSS TNF: Jets +3.5-222
The "regression" continues...
I'm still optimistic for my weekend bets as a few of them are *Best Bets and JETS was the weakest bet I had on my card, though still good enough to qualify for a standard bet.
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Last weekend (regression week) I lost -2.46 units Recap to date: In weeks 8 & 9 I hit a 16 - 3 HOT STREAK. At that point I was 22 - 8.That set off alarms for likely "market correction" to knock me down the next week, so I reduced my bet size for week 10 and sure enough it happened.....as I went 6 - 5 but lost a whopping -6.14 units!I presumed the "market corrrection" was over and resumed my usual bet sizes. Week 11: 7 - 3Week 12: 9 - 1I lucked into another HOT STREAK (16 - 4) so once again I reduced my bet sizes for the succeeding weeks until I felt the "regression" had run it's course. Week 13: 9 - 1 The HOT STREAK actually expanded to 25 - 5! A "regression" was not only expected but imminent, so I reduced my wager sizes again, down to 66% of norm for weeks 14 & 15 and took some advice to just backoff a few bets. Week 14: 3 - 1 +1.15 unitsI anticipated a "regression" so I backed off 3 games that my handicapping otherwise indicated were a solid bet, and sure enough all 3 would have lost. Regression hit! But I escaped the consequences by backing off those 3 games. Had I played those, I would have lost -3.17 units for the week. However, I did not feel this "market correction" to my recent 25 - 5 HOT STREAK had ended yet, so I kept my bets down to 66% of normal for week 15. Week 15: 3 - 3 -2.46 units! Regression hits again!This time, as noted before, I resisted a bet on the RAVENS which I normally would have taken for +8.5 -307 if not for anticipating further regression. Had I played it, my resulting losses would have reached -5.53 units, albeit at only 66% my usual bet size! Today: YTD 59 - 22 Although officially I bet/posted 6 - 4 for -1.31 units the past 2 weeks during "regression," actually had I followed my handicapping sheets and bet normally, I would have gone 6 - 8 for -8.70 units!!I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week. More to follow . . .
LOSS TNF: Jets +3.5-222
The "regression" continues...
I'm still optimistic for my weekend bets as a few of them are *Best Bets and JETS was the weakest bet I had on my card, though still good enough to qualify for a standard bet.
I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week. More to follow . . .
LOSS TNF: Jets +3.5-222
The "regression" continues... I'm still optimistic for my weekend bets as a few of them are *Best Bets and JETS was the weakest bet I had on my card, though still good enough to qualify for a standard bet.
YTD 59 - 23
BROWNS -150 *BB
49ers -1 -291
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Last weekend (regression week) I lost -2.46 units
I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week. More to follow . . .
LOSS TNF: Jets +3.5-222
The "regression" continues... I'm still optimistic for my weekend bets as a few of them are *Best Bets and JETS was the weakest bet I had on my card, though still good enough to qualify for a standard bet.
I anticipated a "regression" so I backed off 3 games that my handicapping otherwise indicated were a solid bet, and sure enough all 3 would have lost. Regression hit! But I escaped the consequences by backing off those 3 games. Had I played those, I would have lost -3.17 units for the week. However, I did not feel this "market correction" to my recent 25 - 5 HOT STREAK had ended yet, so I kept my bets down to 66% of normal for week 15.
Week 15: 3 - 3 -2.46 units! Regression hits again!This time, as noted before, I resisted a bet on the RAVENS which I normally would have taken for +8.5 -307 if not for anticipating further regression. Had I played it, my resulting losses would have reached -5.53 units, albeit at only 66% my usual bet size! Today: YTD 59 - 22 Although officially I bet/posted 6 - 4 for -1.31 units the past 2 weeks during "regression," actually had I followed my handicapping sheets and bet normally, I would have gone 6 - 8 for -8.70 units!!I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week. More to follow . . .
LOSER TNF: Jets +3.5-222
The fallout from getting lucky and hitting a 25 - 5 HOT STREAK meant an inevitable "market correction" (regression to the mean)
As noted above my handicapping sheets (not posted bets) suggested 4 other bet which I luckily backed off as they had me losing -3.17 units week 14 and another -5.53 units last week! UGH!
Then I start this week losing -222 on TNF for real.
However, like hot streaks, regressions also end at some point. I believe it is this weekend (plz Lord) which is why I had opted to up my bet size back to normal. Still, I play a fair amount of juice to get better lines, and if you feel my regression is still ongoing this weekend then perhaps you can find some decent value fading some of mine. I have no problem with that! Whatever works, I wish you guys the best!
PANTHERS +3.5-143
COWBOYS -212 *BB
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Week 14: 3 - 1 +1.15 units
I anticipated a "regression" so I backed off 3 games that my handicapping otherwise indicated were a solid bet, and sure enough all 3 would have lost. Regression hit! But I escaped the consequences by backing off those 3 games. Had I played those, I would have lost -3.17 units for the week. However, I did not feel this "market correction" to my recent 25 - 5 HOT STREAK had ended yet, so I kept my bets down to 66% of normal for week 15.
Week 15: 3 - 3 -2.46 units! Regression hits again!This time, as noted before, I resisted a bet on the RAVENS which I normally would have taken for +8.5 -307 if not for anticipating further regression. Had I played it, my resulting losses would have reached -5.53 units, albeit at only 66% my usual bet size! Today: YTD 59 - 22 Although officially I bet/posted 6 - 4 for -1.31 units the past 2 weeks during "regression," actually had I followed my handicapping sheets and bet normally, I would have gone 6 - 8 for -8.70 units!!I still have a feeling there will be further regression but I really like this week's card, so I will cautiously bump my wager size back up to normal and cross my fingers. I am looking and leaning toward a lot of the homies this week. More to follow . . .
LOSER TNF: Jets +3.5-222
The fallout from getting lucky and hitting a 25 - 5 HOT STREAK meant an inevitable "market correction" (regression to the mean)
As noted above my handicapping sheets (not posted bets) suggested 4 other bet which I luckily backed off as they had me losing -3.17 units week 14 and another -5.53 units last week! UGH!
Then I start this week losing -222 on TNF for real.
However, like hot streaks, regressions also end at some point. I believe it is this weekend (plz Lord) which is why I had opted to up my bet size back to normal. Still, I play a fair amount of juice to get better lines, and if you feel my regression is still ongoing this weekend then perhaps you can find some decent value fading some of mine. I have no problem with that! Whatever works, I wish you guys the best!
Last weekend (regression week) I lost -2.46 units
However, like hot streaks, 
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