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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #4551

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Aliosha: @fubah2  still having a record for leans? 4 - 2 before last weekend, but then I changed how I evaluated LEANS due to getting or not getting the needed ML ...so  mostly irrelevent results  since.... Same for tonight.  It is not a LEAN on the Jets as in "take ANY ML offered"....heck no!!..... So it will be either a LIVE BET or nothing....not even a lean... That Jets TD looked easy... If it continues like THAT, they cover a TD or maybe two!

Well shite.....JETS powering through and making it look almost too easy....

 
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Posted: #4552

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

TNF:  

 

I definitely favor Aaron & the Jets tonight.... BUT, I will not make a bet on that spread and not on a ML that is 3 to 1 odds....It's too high WITHOUT further info (ie, how well they play).....so this is another "wait & see" for possible LIVE bet >> looking for plausibility of winning with Jets....

Given my JETS domination of the PATS, they should be up at least 3 more in score to better reflect the domination in stats....

 

 
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Posted: #4553

HT shtats: only 14 - 3 Jets

1st downs:   Jets 17  -  3
Net yards:  Jets 252  -  40
OFF YPP:     Jets 6.5  -  2.2
Turnovers:             none
48+yd drives:  Jets 3  -  1
Penalty yds:  Jets disadvantaged by -30 yds


Pats get ball to start 2H

 
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Posted: #4554

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: TNF:     I definitely favor Aaron & the Jets tonight.... BUT, I will not make a bet on that spread and not on a ML that is 3 to 1 odds....It's too high WITHOUT further info (ie, how well they play).....so this is another "wait & see" for possible LIVE bet >> looking for plausibility of winning with Jets....

Given my JETS domination of the PATS, they should be up at least 3 more in score to better reflect the domination in stats....

Finally!......11 plays, 66 yds....TD!  an_cheers

 
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Posted: #4555

Jets 400 net yds.... Pats 139

 
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Posted: #4556

WEEK 3,  Sunday, Sept 22 . . .

 

LEAN  to COLTS ATS/ML.....but only if they don't play poorly early; otherwise would be looking to lay a LIVE bet on them if all is well

 
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Posted: #4557

Wait & watch #2

 

LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early

 

To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if

- toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! an_shake

- if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early

an_light....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)

 
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Posted: #4558

Denver leads early  7 - 0;.... LIVE BET: Broncos +5.5 -250 (alt-line)

 
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Posted: #4559

Vikings up 7 - 0 early at home...near mid 1Q....LIVE BET: Minnesota -195 *BB

 
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Posted: #4560

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Wait & watch #2   LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early   To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if - toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! - if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early ....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)

 

Saints don't look bad early and lead 3 - 0;  force Phil punt mid 1Q....

LIVE BET: SAINTS -175 *BB

 
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Posted: #4561

Freaking colt qb int unbelievable 

 
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Posted: #4562

Quote Originally Posted by vc1028:

Freaking colt qb int unbelievable

YEP. BAD play call/execution.  BUMMER.

Now what usually happens is the LUCKY team marches down to score something...

 
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Posted: #4563

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Wait & watch #2   LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early   To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if - toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! - if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early ....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)   Saints don't look bad early and lead 3 - 0;  force Phil punt mid 1Q.... LIVE BET: SAINTS -175 *BB

Saints got some good fortune with an INT to start 2Q, saving sure points against.

And NOW, Saints just caught another lucky break, catching Hurts in the backfield for a fumble when Eagles were driving again!

Overall the play looks even but Philly should be up at least 3 imo...

Saints OFF looks mediocre...

 

 

 
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Posted: #4564

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Denver leads early  7 - 0;.... LIVE BET: Broncos +5.5 -250 (alt-line)

Broncos looking great late 1H....still up 17 - 0  ON THE ROAD! ....but Baker is driving them deep!

 
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Posted: #4565

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Wait & watch #2   LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early   To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if - toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! - if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early ....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)   Saints don't look bad early and lead 3 - 0;  force Phil punt mid 1Q.... LIVE BET: SAINTS -175 *BB Saints got some good fortune with an INT to start 2Q, saving sure points against. And NOW, Saints just caught another lucky break, catching Hurts in the backfield for a fumble when Eagles were driving again! Overall the play looks even but Philly should be up at least 3 imo... Saints OFF looks mediocre...

Philly getting a bit fortunate with the QB scrambles....imo....but Saints have to do a better job with that like sending 5 insteaad of just 4 all the time... Hopefully this is addressed specifically at HT...  

Surprising defensive battle though surprised

 
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Posted: #4566

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Wait & watch #2   LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early   To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if - toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! - if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early ....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)   Saints don't look bad early and lead 3 - 0;  force Phil punt mid 1Q.... LIVE BET: SAINTS -175 *BB

Late 1h....3 - 0.... LIVE HEDGE BET:   EAGLES -115

 
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Posted: #4567

How  about them Packers!

 

 
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Posted: #4568

Big play colts deny bears on 4 down big stop ? 

 
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Posted: #4569

HT shtats: Saints are lucky to be up 3 - 0

1st downs:  Philly  9  - 5
Net yards: Philly 191 - 71
OFF YPP:    Philly 5.8  - 2.6
Turnovers: Philly lose 2....fortunate for Saints!
48+yd drives: Philly 2 - 1
Penalty yds: Philly disadvantaged by -20 yds


an_light Philly gets ball to start 2H

 
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Posted: #4570

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:

How  about them Packers!

Malik Willis is surprising, huh!?  an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #4571

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Wait & watch #2   LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early   To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if - toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! - if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early ....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)   Saints don't look bad early and lead 3 - 0;  force Phil punt mid 1Q.... LIVE BET: SAINTS -175 *BB Late 1h....3 - 0.... LIVE HEDGE BET:   EAGLES -115

EAGLES are clearly OUTPLAYING the Saints offense and deserve to be leading by at least 3+....but fortune definitely smiling on the Saints in 1h as their OFF looks very mediocre today.... hence, my HEDGE BET.....

AND I am now leaning to possibly a second bet on EAGLES for SU win or + pts with an alt-line.... most likely IF they begin the 3Q on a strong drive.... an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #4572

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Wait & watch #2   LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early   To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if - toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! - if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early ....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)   Saints don't look bad early and lead 3 - 0;  force Phil punt mid 1Q.... LIVE BET: SAINTS -175 *BB Late 1h....3 - 0.... LIVE HEDGE BET:   EAGLES -115 EAGLES are clearly OUTPLAYING the Saints offense and deserve to be leading by at least 3+....but fortune definitely smiling on the Saints in 1h as their OFF looks very mediocre today.... hence, my HEDGE BET..... AND I am now leaning to possibly a second bet on EAGLES for SU win or + pts with an alt-line.... most likely IF they begin the 3Q on a strong drive....

Starting drive of 3Q for Eagles....LIVE BET: EAGLES +6.5 -295 (alt-line) BB

 
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Posted: #4573

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Wait & watch #2   LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early   To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if - toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! - if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early ....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)   Saints don't look bad early and lead 3 - 0;  force Phil punt mid 1Q.... LIVE BET: SAINTS -175 *BB Late 1h....3 - 0.... LIVE HEDGE BET:   EAGLES -115 EAGLES are clearly OUTPLAYING the Saints offense and deserve to be leading by at least 3+....but fortune definitely smiling on the Saints in 1h as their OFF looks very mediocre today.... hence, my HEDGE BET..... AND I am now leaning to possibly a second bet on EAGLES for SU win or + pts with an alt-line.... most likely IF they begin the 3Q on a strong drive.... Starting drive of 3Q for Eagles....LIVE BET: EAGLES +6.5 -295 (alt-line) BB

Opening drive Eagles foolishly gamble on 4th in FG range...Saints fortunate again....

 
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Posted: #4574

 

LEANS for possible LIVE bets only:  49ers  su ..... Cards  ATS

 
 
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Posted: #4575

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Wait & watch #2   LEAN  to Saints to win SU vs Eagles.....but here also, no lean toward a LIVE BET if they have trouble early!....this could be a LIVE bet  **only if**  they don't play poorly early   To be  clear, from my capping I am ONLY advocating a LEAN if - toward a possible LIVE bet;     not a pregame bet! - if they are not in trouble/playing poorly early ....only then, for me it becomes a LEAN   (ie,  possible LIVE bet at some point)   Saints don't look bad early and lead 3 - 0;  force Phil punt mid 1Q.... LIVE BET: SAINTS -175 *BB Late 1h....3 - 0.... LIVE HEDGE BET:   EAGLES -115 EAGLES are clearly OUTPLAYING the Saints offense and deserve to be leading by at least 3+....but fortune definitely smiling on the Saints in 1h as their OFF looks very mediocre today.... hence, my HEDGE BET..... AND I am now leaning to possibly a second bet on EAGLES for SU win or + pts with an alt-line.... most likely IF they begin the 3Q on a strong drive.... Starting drive of 3Q for Eagles....LIVE BET: EAGLES +6.5 -295 (alt-line) BB Opening drive Eagles foolishly gamble on 4th in FG range...Saints fortunate again....

And the LUCKY Saints get a blocked punt deep in Eagles end....

Despite being badly OUTPLAYED (except for lucky breaks) Saints about to increase their fortunate lead

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