🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

YTD   73 - 31     to end week 17 <---

 4 - 5 -1   "Short week" games (Thursdays)

10 - 4     National Spotlight evening games on Sat, Sun, Mon

Saturday, the Titans/Jaguars game qualifies as a National spotlight evening game, and on Sunday it will be the Lions/Packers. I expect I have a bet this evening but waiting on some info first.

Thank you, sir and same to you!

Whoa   that looked like sure PI on that 4th down play in the EZ

Yuck.   24 - 3 at half.

But couple bad breaks for Raiders and this isn't such a big margin

Jaguars -270    *BB

Risky bets for Sat. Jan 7:

Loss    Raiders +16.5 -222 

Jaguars -270 *BB        pending

It's possible in this game that the Jags fall behind early.  If so I will immediately grab them on the new moneyline again for a second bet which would also be a *Best Bet

The best situation for this betting strategy is when I like the home team already but the visitors get the ball first and score something on the opening drive

Titans lead 3 - 0 with a minute left but this doesn't trigger a second bet.  6pts minimum by my capping rules

First BIG break is an unforced error on the exchange resulting in a fumble recovery for Titans, snuffing out sure points.

Breaktime   after JAGS score TD...... 10 - 7 now,  with just over 2 mins left.

Bet #2 on JAGUARS -145   *BB

Ensuing drive....Titans 3rd and 8 at their own 31......force a punt here and Jags have a shot to tie it before HT

OMG another unforcede error when Lawrence overthrows a wide open receiver in the EZ  costing them 4 pts.

So far I count TITANS as owning the only BIG breaks this game:  gaining 3 on one and saving 4 on the most recent.

3 pt game and that is a 7 point swing

And on the ensuing drive the Titans get a lucky PI call to keep their drive going.   Phantom call, as rules analyst agrees there was not enought there for PI.   LUCKY TITANS!

and they get 3 off that lucky break

Three lucky breaks all to TITANS for 10 pt swing.

Jags get 3 pts off an INT so that reduces TITANS three net lucky breaks to just two

The def TD evens out the lucky breaks.

WINNERS!

Less than a week since their teammate Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field of play, the Buffalo Bills are set to host the New England Patriots on Sunday.

With the world waiting anxiously for updates, the Bills said Thursday that there had been a “remarkable improvement” in his health, with doctors saying the player’s “neurological condition and function is intact.”

On Friday, the team tweeted that Hamlin’s breathing tube had been removed overnight, according to doctors, and he’s been able to talk with his family and health care providers. 

Technically, for scoring posted records on a forum, I actually lost 0.22 units. But in my bankroll I gained because I bet considerably more on my *Best Bets of course, and both won.

In the end it might appear as if JAGUAR moneyline bettors got lucky with the late defensive TD....but that one merely evened up the lucky breaks for each side.

I have at least 4 more good bets today (some *BB), which I am reviewing against injury/healthy-scratches updates before I make a final decision to bet any of them. 

Normally, "healthy scratches" of starters (or news they will only play a few series at most) isn't a concern through the first 16 weeks but it is an added concern now.

GL with your bets today, fellas! 

The Jaguars prevailed in the evening National Spotlight game.

Undecided about the next one which is Lions@GB Sunday night

 YTD  75 - 32     to start week 18 <--- 

54 - 23  FAVS overall
             48 - 21 on Home Favs
               6 - 2 on Away Favs
 

21 - 9  DOGS overall
          18 - 7 on Home Dogs
            3 - 2 on Away Dogs

Here's a bet I don't need to wait for injury/absent updates, in fact the more the better:

The "TANK Bowl"

COLTS -1.5-124 *BB

COLTS -140 *BB

Both bottom dwellers and elminated. Texans are the worse of the two, although playing inspired in recent weeks.  However, TEXANS can assure themselves of the #1 draft pick GUARANTEED if they just find a way to LOSE this game.  Yes, COLTS would like to lose too and improve their draft position, but that's a very stressful undertaking when playing in front of home town fans who paid big bucks to attend in hopes of seeing their homies end the season on a win.   Easier for the TEXANS to play well but "accidentally" lose in the end on the road.   It's otherwise a dead even matchup as I see it, except for that.    Personally I think Houston would win the boneheads of the year award if they win this game.  That #1 pick can be incredibly valuable!  Not necessarily in a given player but they could also auction off that top pick to the highest bidder and make an awesome deal!!! 

IF THEY LOSE THE GAME!!  They simply cannot count on Chicago defeating Minnesota today, when the Bears too are hoping to lose against a vastly superior opponent that wants the win!

Sure, there's always a chance this one could backfire on me.  Anything can happen in football, and usually does.

I have at least 5 more bets coming which I feel very good about, pending the all important updates on injuries/Healthy-scratches, etc

Bol today 

Hou v Indy betting real on who will lose, gambling at its finest lol But agree with your assessment.

Yeah I agree it's unfortunate, but it is what it is......Personally I wish they would go to a draft-lottery system where, for example, maybe the bottom 5 teams (or 6 or 7 if there is a 3-way tie) get entered into a lottery for draft order -- with the caveat being the winning team for #1 may not enter said lottery again for 2 successive seasons.

@fubah2

Good luck!  

Adding:

BENGALS -3.5-350  *BB

BENGALS -395 1stH *BB