Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
66 - 52 @ 56% for +8.8 Units
Mon, 01/31
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 (Game Of The Week)
I'm actually going to wait until closer to game-time to play this one, as I expect the line to shift at least to +2 Grizzlies. Currently 95% of all the early bets are on Orlando, so hopefully by morning it's at +2. In any case, I'll grade it at +1.5 since that's where the line is right now. Let's break this one down:
Memphis are coming into this one at 24-24, 1.5 games behind Portland for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. Orlando is battling for the #1 seed in the East. Clearly, the game is very important for both teams. There are a number of factors here that favor the Grizzlies though.
#1) 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in 4 nights for Orlando
The Magic are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 times in a second game of a b2b. 'Fatigue' spot for Orlando, as they had to travel to Chicago on the 28th, the to Cleveland for yesterday's game, and now to Memphis. Grizzlies have been at home for the past 4 days and had an off-day yesterday to practice and prepare for this game tonight.
#2) Revenge
The first meeting between these 2 teams took place in Orlando, with Magic winning it 89-72. Even though the Grizzlies attempted 16 more shots, had 6 more offensive rebounds, and 5 more assists, they shot a season-low 36% in that one. Grizzlies shoot 48% and score 103 ppg at home so I definitely see them improving on those #'s in tonight's game. Consequently, the Grizz are 18-9 ATS this season when revenging a loss, indicating that this team really puts forth excellent effort in this scenario.
#3) Head-to-head trends
Even though the Grizzlies have lost the first game between the 2 teams, they have won 2 straight, and 7 of last 8 home games against the Magic. Orlando is 1-7 ATS in those 8 meetings in Memphis and 5-12 ATS overall against them.
#4) PG Matchup
With 'Agent Zero' being banged up right now (I believe he is doubtful to play tonight as well), Duhon is the back-up to Jameer Nelson, who is also hobbled right now with tendinitis issues. I see Conley taking advantage here and being a 'difference-maker' in this one. He has been playing really well lately, shooting the ball at 49% from the field, averaging 14 ppg and 6 assists, in the last 4 games. In that first game against Magic he was the only 'bright spot' for the Grizzlies with 11 points on 5-11 from the field, 8 assists and only 2 turnovers in 36 minutes. Actually, he's only averaging 1.5 turnovers per game in his last 4. Protecting the ball will be critical in this one, and even though Conley is not the primary offensive target, I see him being very efficient with his minutes, shooting a high %age from the field and distributing the ball to the scorers, Randolph and Gay.
#5) Current form
Magic are playing good ball right now with a 4-3 record in their last 7 games. Grizzlies are even better, sporting a 5-1 record in their last 6 games. This team is 14-7 (13-7 ATS) at home this year, compared to Magic being 13-11 (9-14 ATS) on the road. I know Orlando played against Cleveland at home yesterday, a game where they probably didn't put 'max' effort in, but besides Dwight Howard, the other 4 starters really struggled, shooting 14 for 48 from the field for 29%. That's just not going to get it done against Memphis who are giving up 92 ppg while holding opponents to 43% from the field in the last 5 games.
#6) Look-ahead spot
Like I've mentioned earlier, this is an important game for both teams, but Orlando is in a bit of a look-ahead spot. After tonight's game, they are traveling back home where they will play Miami in a couple of days. As important as this game is, the game against Miami is even more crucial, and this is definitely a 'look-ahead' spot for them.
Looking at all these factors, I like how this game is shaping up tonight. Memphis is an under-rated team in my opinion, evidenced by their 17-6 ATS record as underdogs this year and 15-7 ATS record against 'winning' teams. Orlando is 20-21 ATS as a favorite but only 1-5 ATS when favored by -3 points or less. Obviously the bookies have been over-valuing them in this spread-range. I see Grizzlies being a bit hungrier, more rested, and better prepared for this one tonight, as Orlando will be looking ahead to going home and facing off against the Heat. There are enough factors favoring the Grizzlies here that I feel this is a 'Game of the Week' type of a game.
Good luck!
66 - 52 @ 56% for +8.8 Units
Mon, 01/31
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 (Game Of The Week)
I'm actually going to wait until closer to game-time to play this one, as I expect the line to shift at least to +2 Grizzlies. Currently 95% of all the early bets are on Orlando, so hopefully by morning it's at +2. In any case, I'll grade it at +1.5 since that's where the line is right now. Let's break this one down:
Memphis are coming into this one at 24-24, 1.5 games behind Portland for the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. Orlando is battling for the #1 seed in the East. Clearly, the game is very important for both teams. There are a number of factors here that favor the Grizzlies though.
#1) 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in 4 nights for Orlando
The Magic are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 times in a second game of a b2b. 'Fatigue' spot for Orlando, as they had to travel to Chicago on the 28th, the to Cleveland for yesterday's game, and now to Memphis. Grizzlies have been at home for the past 4 days and had an off-day yesterday to practice and prepare for this game tonight.
#2) Revenge
The first meeting between these 2 teams took place in Orlando, with Magic winning it 89-72. Even though the Grizzlies attempted 16 more shots, had 6 more offensive rebounds, and 5 more assists, they shot a season-low 36% in that one. Grizzlies shoot 48% and score 103 ppg at home so I definitely see them improving on those #'s in tonight's game. Consequently, the Grizz are 18-9 ATS this season when revenging a loss, indicating that this team really puts forth excellent effort in this scenario.
#3) Head-to-head trends
Even though the Grizzlies have lost the first game between the 2 teams, they have won 2 straight, and 7 of last 8 home games against the Magic. Orlando is 1-7 ATS in those 8 meetings in Memphis and 5-12 ATS overall against them.
#4) PG Matchup
With 'Agent Zero' being banged up right now (I believe he is doubtful to play tonight as well), Duhon is the back-up to Jameer Nelson, who is also hobbled right now with tendinitis issues. I see Conley taking advantage here and being a 'difference-maker' in this one. He has been playing really well lately, shooting the ball at 49% from the field, averaging 14 ppg and 6 assists, in the last 4 games. In that first game against Magic he was the only 'bright spot' for the Grizzlies with 11 points on 5-11 from the field, 8 assists and only 2 turnovers in 36 minutes. Actually, he's only averaging 1.5 turnovers per game in his last 4. Protecting the ball will be critical in this one, and even though Conley is not the primary offensive target, I see him being very efficient with his minutes, shooting a high %age from the field and distributing the ball to the scorers, Randolph and Gay.
#5) Current form
Magic are playing good ball right now with a 4-3 record in their last 7 games. Grizzlies are even better, sporting a 5-1 record in their last 6 games. This team is 14-7 (13-7 ATS) at home this year, compared to Magic being 13-11 (9-14 ATS) on the road. I know Orlando played against Cleveland at home yesterday, a game where they probably didn't put 'max' effort in, but besides Dwight Howard, the other 4 starters really struggled, shooting 14 for 48 from the field for 29%. That's just not going to get it done against Memphis who are giving up 92 ppg while holding opponents to 43% from the field in the last 5 games.
#6) Look-ahead spot
Like I've mentioned earlier, this is an important game for both teams, but Orlando is in a bit of a look-ahead spot. After tonight's game, they are traveling back home where they will play Miami in a couple of days. As important as this game is, the game against Miami is even more crucial, and this is definitely a 'look-ahead' spot for them.
Looking at all these factors, I like how this game is shaping up tonight. Memphis is an under-rated team in my opinion, evidenced by their 17-6 ATS record as underdogs this year and 15-7 ATS record against 'winning' teams. Orlando is 20-21 ATS as a favorite but only 1-5 ATS when favored by -3 points or less. Obviously the bookies have been over-valuing them in this spread-range. I see Grizzlies being a bit hungrier, more rested, and better prepared for this one tonight, as Orlando will be looking ahead to going home and facing off against the Heat. There are enough factors favoring the Grizzlies here that I feel this is a 'Game of the Week' type of a game.
Good luck!
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