260-214 YTD (+32.72U)
Hawks +5.5
Rockets -5
Cs -12.5 (1.09U)
76ers TTU 100.5
Pistons -8.5 (1.05U)
Spurs -10
Wemby boards o11.5 boards/ML (1.05U)
Blazers TTU 105.5 (1.1U)
OKC -13
Posted some of these in previous thread. I'll do a mini writeup on each one below. Each to win 2U unless noted. May add a couple more...
Did queries on double digit home favorites for round one game one
26-13 ATS and 13-25 O/U
Same query for #1 seed 17-8 ATS
L10 where the team won covered 9 of 10 times and only twice the opponent scored over 100 points that's why I like the TTUs too
Celtics opponent TTU 31-51 on season, Spurs opponent TTU 34-47-1, and may look at Suns/Magic TTUs
Celtics 49-33 ATS this season and play at the slowest pace to support 76ers TTU (without Embiid Philly offensive rating is 29th)
Spurs and Thunder will come out with something to prove in gm1 in my opinion.
Spurs since ASB #1 net rating and #1 EFG allowed, first time we will see Wemby play extended minutes get ready.
Pistons are not double digit favorites but 8.5 line on query moves to 31-21 ATS, COY vs Mosley who may be the worst coach in the playoffs.
Maybe Lakers fight gm1 but I thought it was interesting no team with a worse seed has been favored on the road in gm 1 round 1 EVER, IF Rockets can score offensively I don't think Lakers scratch 100.
Hawks I just think match up well on Brunson, and last year every game vs Pistons in R1 was decided by 3 points or less (well, except gm1). Hawks played well down the stretch and I may just be a huge Mike Brown hater. Teams get hype for MSG I can see this going over 5.5 games (which I bet).
Just some random notes off the top of my head here lemme know if you want me to break a game down or give a case for the other side.
Most important note I have last year if you just pick the team that won you went 78-13 ATS! Just pick the winner you cover most the time in playoffs. Last six years 454-58-6 ATS just picking the team that wins covers (88.7%). That's nuts! If you like dogs bet them SU too!
@DJSC1984
Not my picks
It means if you picked the team to win SU they covered ATS too
most of the time
@Daddy_Eggroll
Yes I’ve been thinking about it. Towns o19.5 points was on my shortlist. Dyson Daniels may be able to give Brunson a bit of trouble and open up scoring elsewhere. I looked up Hawks offensive rebounds allowed without Jock Londale since break and it’s still 4th best but only 7-game sample size. Knicks should have an advantage on the glass no doubt.
This is pretty interesting. I feel there is a sweet spot here on dog moneylines. Doing a little brainstorming/queries here. Home favorites of -9 or more in round 1 are 92-66-1 58.2%. Home dogs in round 1 are 101-144-5 41.2%. Just that alone is a pretty good look for betting on (HOU, OKC, BOS, SA) this weekend.
Since we know home dogs don't do well and large away dogs don't do well there is likely value on the moneyline for away dogs +8.5 of less. Regardless of the round, away dogs of +4 to +8.5 hit at 417-477-10 46.6% ats. If you are getting an average line over +200 or so on the moneyline and when they cover are winning anywhere near 88.7% of the time you should be very profitable. For this weekend that would have you taking (TOR +330, MIN +255, ATL +220, ORL +320). If just one of those hits, worst case you are down less than 1 unit. Anything better is good profit.
@papsmear
If you move line to -10.5 favs in all of 1st round 72-8 SU I don’t think any lose but is possible. Cavs look like they are going to cover and win.
Some dogs gotta bark this weekend???
Non-double digit games left to pick a dog… Hawks Lakers Wolves Magic
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