System 5-0 this week......11-3 posted on season......Wed looks.....

Odds makers have been burying bettors recently backing the heat. Miami is 0-5 in their last 5 games ATS. These over inflated lines that have included -17 and -15 in that stretch may have finally caught up with the books today. Sportscenter has broadcasted a heavy stream of “panic” in Miami news the entire day. They have also have put a high public perspective on the Suns who have won 5 of their last 6 overall and boast a 4-1 ATS mark in that stretch. This line opened up last night at -9 in favour of Miami. Initial action had come in on the Heat. I got a message early in the day from my friend mentioning some action on the Suns. Around1PM local time the line dipped from 9 to 8.5. More action came in on the underdog dropping the line to 8. Since the line move to 8 the action has remained in favour of Phoenix dropping the line half a point lower to 7.5. Although the action has not been too badly one sided 59% Phoenix ($200-225,000) to 41% Miami ($140-$160,000) the line has been very sensitive. Now with a total in the NBA, you play with the sensitivity. However, with a side like this one, I am playing against the sensitivity. When a total is set in the NBA with the high scoring west coast teams, its set in a ballpark area and then adjusted according to action to find the right number where the books then aim to have split action. This is why you see an initial number open and a number sometimes 7 or 8 points different close. Since it is impossible to judge a public reaction off the bat, they leave themselves a window to find out exactly what the public thinks the line should be and get even sided action there. What happens with these side numbers is either over reaction or under reaction. All year long we have seen major inflation with games involving the Miami Heat. The books have made a killing all year long. Tonight they may have gotten caught at their own game. I know this line was set a couple points too high on purpose. It just so happened that Phoenix happened to be hyped up in media outlets all over the mediums and were listed as nearly double digit dogs that the bookmakers got caught. I believe that 7.5 is the true line and so do a couple of casinos in Vegas who opened this game at 7.5 and have left it the same all day long. Both teams have even records this season but slightly one sided talent levels. Home court advantage is 3-5 points off the bat. Miami is a 4-2 home team this year, I would apply 4 points of the possible 5. With the line at 7.5 now, its only saying that talent wise the Heat are 3.5 points better then the Suns on a neutral floor. With names like Lebron and Wade on the floor no matter the circumstance, you have to believe that this is true. This is going to be one of the few times this season you will be able to back Miami at their true price. Not only am I factoring that into making this pick but its going against the sensitive line and getting the Heat in a good spot against a Phoenix team opening up 4 games on the road and the first of back to back games in Florida (Orlando in game one of the TNT doubleheader tomorrow) Watch for a big game from Miami tonight coming off 3 days of rest and 3 days of readjustments.