Stunner in Salt Lake City

Simply put, I don’t think Denver is going into Mormon country tonight to simply bow down to the beloved home team.  Although their results away from home have been known to be quite unpredictable and dissapointing, I’m playing a hunch here that the Nuggets can go into the NBA’s toughest home venue and fight hard to the very end if not win outright I dare say.

I see people today saying this is a horrible situation for the Nuggets, and although there is certainly truth to that, here’s the caveat.  The linesmakers know full well that you perceive this to be a good betting opportunity, so knowing that, why on earth would they ever offer you any sort of value on your investment (which is Utah)?  This line is a reflection of the perceived “horrible situation” Denver faces here and then some.  

Secondly, I know I might be in the minority here, but I think Utah is beginning to become a little overvalued at home.  I mean who doesn’t want to bet on the Jazz when they play at Energy Solutions Arena?  (Especially now that they have they’re full compliment of players available).  To my point, on home-court the Jazz score more, defend better, and have a drastically better record than on the road.  They are night and day home versus road.  In addition, they also boast the loudest crowd in the NBA which routinely forces officials into calls that are heavily slanted towards the good guys if for nothing else than a fear of engendering the scorn and derision of 20, 000 crazed Mormons.  So what’s they’re not to like in the end?  Well many of those things I just mentioned all go into creating a line which can reach a point of inflation.  I think we may have begun to reach that point with the Utah Jazz at home, especially with them being on an eleven game winning streak there.  Are they really nine points or whatever it was on Wednesday better than the Houston Rockets?  Even with all the advantages the Jazz hold over teams at home, I still think that number was a little pricey given the situation.

I saw a desperation and urgency out of the Denver Nuggets last night that I have not seen in quite some time.  Carmelo Anthony played otherworldly coming off of his one-game suspension.  He took over that game and was even hustling on defense.  Unlike what we saw out of the Mavericks yesterday who predictably got run over in a similar situation, I think the Nuggets can carry over all the positives from last’s night win against Portland into tonight’s game.  Don’t ask me why I feel this way, that’s just the way I see it.  Good luck.

Nuggets +9

Nuggets ML +420

VR - I think you are over thinking this one. Vegas sets the line for casual viewers who will say, “Wow – the Nuggets are getting 9 points after crushing Portland last night vs. Portland!.” They do not set lines for the individuals who will evaluate this game properly. There is no money in trying to trick the educated gambler because then the public wins, which would lead to Vegas losing money.

Looking at the percentages it will seem the public has taken the Nuggets, which could prove this point.

Good luck on your play!