Slipperyslope's best NBA play of the day

wizard it is buddy ..

washington

 

Painful Painful Push

I almost know what it's like giving birth now.

Minnesota will miss the play-offs again this year. They are not mathematically eliminated yet, but with a 36-35 record they are 7 wins behind the 8th seed and with 10 games to play their chances are as close to zero as possible. The players know that too, but they have been playing like pros and taking care of the teams they should beat. Two latest examples are the struggling Hawks and Lakers who both were blown away by the Timberwolves. It has been a different story against the teams that play for something though. Houston Phoenix and Memphis all need wins and they all have delivered a loss for the Wolves in last 10 days.

The Clippers of course fall to the category of those teams that want to win the game. At the moment they are 3rd team in the Western Conference, but only one 1 away from the Thunder. With 8-2 record in last 10 games and the Thunder showing some weaknesses at times they still can catch them. It is of course crucial for the potential home court advantage in the 2nd round of the play-offs. The Clippers have been playing great and have suffered only 2 losses in March.

This will be 4th and last meeting between these teams this season. All 3 previous games have gone in favor of the Clippers. That said, the winning margins have been close (twice by 4 and once by 2 points). Minnesota has this game back-to-back though, their motivation to win at any cost is doubtful and the Clippers are different kind of animal than earlier this season. Bet on LAC to cover -3,5 points with 5/10 units.

GL

Pacers vs Spurs 31/03

Leaving aside 1 game against the Heat it has been a horrific month of March for the Pacers. Especially considering their expectations. As of late the Pacers just can`t score and lack any offensive team chemistry. The Pacers have lost 4 of their last 5 games and have been blown away the Wizards on Friday and the Cavaliers on Sunday. It does not help them that they have to play 3rd game in 4 nights and that awkward “day game – evening game” back-to-back against the hottest team in the league right now.

The Spurs got their key players back in the lineup and have played on untouchable level ever since. It is a 17-game winning streak and win against the Pacers means they would stay without the loss in March. What is even more impressive is that they havent been even close to losing any of these games. The Spurs just keep blowing opponents awya by double digit margins. They smallest winning margin in March is by 5 points, their average winning margin in March is by 16,8 points (!!!). That`s simply unreal!

No question one team is struggling and the other team is clicking. The Pacers have home court, but they have to play back-to-back after yet another tough loss in Cleveland. Indiana has had all sorts of problems finding points and against the tremendous offense the Spurs can play they need to deliver almost a perfect performance to have any chance. Take the Spurs -3.5 points with 6/10 stakes.

GL

Anyone think the Spurs have gone sleepy time?

Only team sleeping is the Pacers ... again!

With the regular season about to end in two weeks, wins for those teams who fight for the play-offs are becoming matter of a life or death. The race is exceptionally close in the Western Conference. As of now the difference between 6th and 9th seed is grand total of 1 win. The 6th seed Warriors have 45 wins and 28 losses, while the Suns currently 9th, have a record of 44 wins and 30 losses.

Dallas is 7th with 44-30, but have the toughest schedule remaining. Their 8 remaining games include GSW, LAC, SAS, PHX and MEM, but also away games against LAL, SAC and UTA that are no gimmies either. With the Grizzlies having relatively easy schedule and the Suns being very hot lately this game is huge for both teams, but especially for the Mavericks. Winner of this game can feel good about its chances and the Mavs need to feel good before going to the 4-game roadtrip.

They meet the Warriors in a good spot. Andrew Bogut is out with a pelvis contusion and David Lee is doubtful for the game with an hamstring injury. Without their 2 key players all that is left for the Warriors is outside shooting. Both Curry and Thompson must have huge performances for the Warriors to have a chance. They got 32 points with hot shooting from Curry two days ago, but as Thompson scored only 15 points and they lost to the Knicks.

Golden State will play 1st away game after playing 5 previous games at home, while the Mavericks finish 8-game home stand tonight. Dallas is 25-13 in home games this season and they can`t lose this game. Being a smart team they will exploit the Warriors weaknesses and lack of an inside presence and should cover the spread. Dallas -2 points with 5/10 units.

GL

Results update ... 18-13 profit 27.2 units (not counting DAL/GSW pick).

Could be worse, should be better (some tough losses recently), but profit is profit.

I tailed ya big and one big!  Thanks again!

No worries, Biebs, these days you need all the support you can get!

Wolves vs Grizzlies 02/04

Importance of that game is totally different for two teams. While Memphis is fighting to get to the play-offs, Minnesota is out of the play-offs and they probably can`t wait for the season to end and new season to begin. Minnesota also lost Nikola Pekovic as he left Monday`s game against the Clippers after aggrevating injury to his ankle. If Minnesota would have something to play for, they potentially could use him for limited minutes, but as they are going nowhere in the standings no matter if they win or lose Pekovic is likely to miss this game.

That of course is a huge void against the Grizzlies, who have their main strenght inside with Gasol and Randolph. Not to say that Pekovic is a great defender, but at least he would be a big body to match Gasol and make him work at the other end. A good example is Minnesota`s previous game when Pek played only 7 minutes and DeAndre Jordan went crazy taking 24 rebounds (10 offensive rebounds). Expect the Grizzlies dominate at low-post.

Motivation is very different here. In general Memphis is a better team and their record 44-30 should be better as they really struggled earlier this season while playing without Marc Gasol. Still they are 8 wins ahead of the Wolves and have a clear low-post advantage tonight. Take Grizzlies to cover -1 with 6/10 stakes.

GL

Cleveland is back in the business. They have now won 5 of their last 6 games and are with 31 wins and 45 losses. That is 2 wins behind the 8th seed and only one win behind the Hawks. With 6 games to play, the margin of error is very small though. The Cavaliers have to be almost perfect to have a chance against the Knicks. Good news is, their schedule is rather easy, with all games against the Eastern Conference teams and 4/6 played at home.

The Cavaliers playing better has not come out of the blue sky. The reason has a name – Luol Deng. Cleveland`s run started when he returned from his injury break and he has been playing great. It is not only his stats though, but rather the glue effect he has on every team. With his outside shooting ability, great court vision and excellent defense he makes teammates around him better. The Cavs got Kyrie Irving back from a biceps injury on Wednesday and destroyed the Magic by 21 points in an away game.

Of course, the game is important for the Hawks aswell, as they still have a chance to steal that illusive 8th seed in the East. Difference is, the Hawks have been in a must win situation for the last 10 games and they have not been able to show any heartbeat. They have lost 7 of their last 8 games (only win against the tanking PHI) and with that have lost their 8th seed. Although Kyle Korver is back in their lineup after missing couple of weeks with back spasms, but his return has changed nothing.

Atlanta will play at home, but that`s their only advantage. The Cavaliers have been on a rise playing much better, now have realistic hopes for the play-offs and their key players are back in the lineup. The Hawks have been in a deep hole and the Cavaliers should be good enough to keep them there. Cleveland to win @2.30 with 5/10 units.

GL

BOL my friend! is it over or under? what do you think?

Raptors vs Pacers 04/04

Over/Under line for this game suggests that it will be a game where both teams will struggle to score, neither gets to the 100 points and the focus will be on playing a hard nose defense. It is an interesting view considering the fact that the Raptors rarely play games that finish with totals as low as that.

Over last 20 games for the Raptors, scoring total has been below 182,5 points only 2 times. Once against the Heat 83-93 (we know how Miami can pull out those amazing defensive games from time to time) and against the Grizzlies 99-86. That`s it, rest of the games have been covering the 182,5 easily and many of these games going by far over 200 points. An average total for last 20 games the Raptors have played is 204,9 points. Thats 22 points more than the line for tonight Now that does not mean that the Raptors are offensive powerhouse, that can score whenever they want, but they like to take early shots, put up many 3-pointers and fall asleep at the defensive end.

It is true that the Pacers have been struggling with their scoring as of late, but as predicted for their game against the Pistons, they got themselves going offensively, scoring 101 points. This trend should not change now as the Raptors D is not much better. In general this game should look very similar to the Pacers vs Pistons game on Wednesday. Scoring total is likely to reach 190 points at the very least. Over 179,5 points with 7/10 units.

GL

76ers vs Nets 05/04

As for the late stages of the regular season, tanking done so masterfully by the 76ers can stop. With a record of 17-59 they have secured honourable 2nd place in tanking contest only losing to the Bucks. That allows the 76ers to play like they can without coaching staff or management thinking how we can play so that we would lose.

One thing Philadelphia has been able to do all season has been scoring points. Together with sometimes hilarious number of points they allow, they usually still score 90 points themsleves. Reason of course is lack of their defense, but also desire to push the ball whenever possible and take early shots at the offensive end.

The Nets have secured the play-off spot, but would like to get to top 4 in the East to have an homecourt for the first round. The Nets have turned around an awful start they had and now look like a team that could give a scare to struggling top teams in the East. One reason for their success has been ability to score points. In fact over last 11 games the Nets have scored more than 100 points 10 times. Their scoring average over last 11 games is 106,5 points.

Both teams can score points and prefer to play uptempo games. There`s no reason why they should fade from it tonight from it as it has been successful strategy for the Nets and losing pressure is off the shoulders for the 76ers. This game should look overish. Take over 208 points with 5/10 units.

GL

While it makes no difference for the Kings if they win or lose this game, for the Mavericks the play-offs have started already. They need to play all the remaining regular season games with the play-off intensity to secure their place for the postseason. Consequently this game means a whole lot more for the Mavericks.

With a record of 27 wins and 49 losses, the Kings really have nothing to play for. Being elliminated from the play-offs long time ago they could in fact help themselves by losing more. They played one of their worst games of the season on Friday, when they lost to the Warriors by 33 points (after trailing already by 30 at the halftime). Golden State is actually in quite a similar position as Dallas, so this should be a good indication what motivation means in these type of games.

The Mavericks have 1 game lead over 9th seed in the West, so they really can`t allow themselves to lose against weaker opponents. With a record of 46 wins and 31 losses they are almost 20 wins ahead of the Kings. Sacramento is also missing some key players with Isaiah Thomas suffering right quad injury, Rudy happy expecting his first child and Carl Landry, Jason Terry out for season. Motivation is the key here. Dallas -4.5 points with 6/10 units.

GL

Lakers vs Clippers 06/04

By all means it should be a high scoring game, but to expect 226 points scored in a game played between home town rivals and played as an early game is a bit too much.

LAC and LAL met on 6th of March and the game was a total disaster for the Lakers. It finished with the 48 points difference and the Lakers allowed 142 points. What it means for the game tonight though is a revenge factor as the Lakers don`t want to get humiliated again. They are probably not good enough to win the game, but they are not going to get embarassed again. What it really means is that they will bring out a better effort at the defensive end.

To score 226 points it would take 48 minutes of running. The Lakers have been trying to do that, but their roster now is just too bad to score enough points to justify that style against the Clippers. Steve Nash will see some minutes tonight and he will slow the Lakers tempo. While Gasol is out, Nash really doesn`t have a counterparty to play a pick`n`roll so his offensive effectivness will be limited and his half healthy presence in the lineup will bring down the Lakers scoring averages.

The Clippers will probably find ways to score more than 100 points, but for this game to go over 226 points they have to score at least 120 points and they have not done that ever since that remarkable 142 points against the Lakers exactly a month ago. With the early game sloppiness and revenge factor in play we are likely to see this game staying under 226 points. Under 226 points with 5/10 units.

GL

The list of injuries for the Lakers is longer than the list of active players. Pau Gasol is out with vertigo, Kobe Bryant is of course shut down for the season, Steve Nash is in and out of the lineup, Xavier Henry will miss the reminder of the season and Chris Kaman, Jordan Farmar, Kent Bazemore are all questionable with various injuries. Some part of it is obvious attempt by the Lakers to lose as much as they can, but the way they can`t play a game without someone getting injured again is already getting ridiculous.

The Rockets will miss Dwight Howard due to his ankle injury and will not have Patrick Beverley available for couple of weeks, but they still need to win games. They are 1 win ahead of the Blazers to secure the homecourt advantage for the 1st round of the play-offs. Against the Lakers, not having Howard could be a good thing as the Lakers have no rim protection at all, which allows Harden, Lin and Parson to drive to the basket for easy dunks and layups. Dwight being an excellent low-post player could slow the tempo down and make it more of an half-court offense. Now we will see the Rockets driving to the basket for 48 minutes.

The lineup Lakers will play is not even a serious D-League material. The Rockets will take an advantage, score many points and cover the spread with an ease. Houston -11 with 7/10 units.

GL

This game is likely to decide the outcome in the top of the Eastern Conference standings. As of now Indiana has 54 wins and 25 losses and Miami has 53 wins and 25 losses. Both teams have been playing poor basketball over the last couple of weeks, but some part of it has been the tactics of resting their key players.

We have a genuine hate between players here. They have seen eachother way too often in recent years and have played way too many play-off games against eachother. That leads us to the fact that this game means much more than just another day on court. It will be a statement game for both teams. Indiana needs this win probably more as their struggles as of late have been more obvious, but the Heat don`t want to lose the season series against the Pacers to give them a) homecourt advantage for the play-offs and b) confidence.

In these play-off intensinty level games what happens is that offense slows down and defense becomes more important. Both teams will take care of their defense and will be more cautious at the offensive end. A quick reminder about the scores we saw last year in the play-offs when the importance was really high. In games 4 to 7 in the East finals the scores were 90-79, 77-91, 99-76, 88-92. Two weeks ago when they met in Indiana intensity level was just like should be expected here again. The result was 84-83. That`s 18 points under the line offered. It`s likely to be a close grind out defensive war. Under 185 with 6/10 units.

GL

It is a meeting between two teams that rarely stay under 100 points. The pressure is off for the Pistons as they can`t climb or fall in the standings for the rest of the way. The Raptors want to win though to secure their 3rd seedin the East. All that means that the Pistons will play their usual uptempo offense and probably do not care that much at the other end, while The Raptors will take advantage of it.

Deroit has scored 94, 104, 115, 102, 100 and 98 points in 6 games during the month of April. 94 points they scored against the Pacers and 98 points against the Bulls – two teams that belong to the top of defensive teams in the league. The Raptors are not even near as good defensive team and they like to push the ball aswell. In April the Raptors are yet to stay under 100 points. Toronto`s totals have been 107, 102, 102, 125 and 100 points.

It is an early game, but both teams are rested and like to play uptempo games. Detroit likes to take an early shots and their defense will allow the Raptors to do the same. Relatively high scoring game is expected. Take over 206 points with 5/10 units.

GL