Slims Sharp Play (Fade the Public)

At 9 thats a pretty sharp number, thats what I came up with and thats after considering the fatigue factor for OKC.  I definitely think its going to be a high scoring game and am considering the over.

OMG! 

Thank You Line Killer!! Lets do it again.

Big Unit I agree- I see back door potential here. Scotty Brooks if thee up 15-18 going into the 4th may sit his starters until it gets down to 4-6 pts....

I definitely don't see a Clippers vs Phx type game where it's a dogfight the whole way.

Slim, nice play last night! I went 3-1, with only loss being Clippers. I'll admit, I dont fully understand line movement as it's not really in my style of play...but I cant argue with results, I'm tailing you bud.

I'm liking DET alot for a number of reasons. Both teams on equal day of rest, DET is not a marquee match up so the crowd will not show up. MIA had to go to OT to beat TOR, Lebron and D Wade had to give 110% as well.

One more thing I'm loving about DET is how they match up. Down low DET has the guys to bang, and the perimeter game to go up big. I see MIA coming back to win, again, with a strong effort by Wade/James...and eeking out a 5 point win.

I've also got two buddies from Mizzou playing tonight in Demarre Carroll (UTAH) and Kim English (DET), backing both of them.

So if the spread opened up at GS +2...and move's to +2.5 is that moving the "right way" for GS, or CHI if the majority of bettors are on GS? This is where I get lost.

Did you factor the public being on GS to Luol Deng being out...thats my main reason for leaning GS on this one. Yes...CHI is over the last 5 games limiting less 3pt% from 32% to 24% last 5 games (I think alot of that was LAL tho)...but giving up more points over all in that last 5. Plus I KNOW CHI plays defense like no one GS has seen, but Golden State shoots the long ball like no one CHI has seen.

Good luck to you man, really appreciate the work you put in. General consensus between you, me and the sports wizard have me feeling 90% on DET.

Forbes in your scenario with the majority of the money on GSW the line should be from +2 to +1.5. They should be getting less points.

Look at it this way if the public is pounding them at +2.5 and the book truly wanted a 50/50 split the would try to attract more CHI money meaning they would give CHI less pts to cover than more.

In your scenario the are actually giving GSW more coverage room from +2 to +2.5 meaning that more of the public would be more likely to go with them. Making those that already bet a 2 possibly place another wager at 2.5. This is the very definition the Book Laying the perfect trap.

Some buy into some don't but it's been a consistent winner for me. Think of how hard it is to bet against your better judgement. Think about OKC the last few days or PHX last night.I think its the key to breaking to 60%. If you are automatically at 50% as an avg wagerer how do you break thru? You have to almost wager against your own gut. The RLM is a guide when to do so.

OKC down to 8.5 in some places 8. with 80% plus of the Public on OKC whats this telling you?????/

BLOODBATH

Thoughts?

I think I got you, so the logic behind this is the books want action on SAC...but the public is already on OKC and the line is moving down making it easier to take OKC.

So in this scenario the play to make is SAC+8? Or am I reading you wrong? Is this what "reverse line movement" is because the line SHOULD be going up for OKC making it harder to pick them. Thanks for elaborating, I've been gaming since college but never really got into an every day thing until this NFL season. Learning a ton, but the guts always kept me above 60%.

 I'm pretty confident in OKC, but I gotta respect your move on this one. The line is jumping a ton. GL tonight man, DET! 

Forbes--

The line is moving down to attract more action on OKC, -8.5 is a better wager for OKC followers than -9.

Yes the wager here would be Sac for RLM believers. Thats a tough pill to swallow, I will admit that but I think it's a better play than even Det. My reasoning is OKC is on the road at the end of a long trip. They generally come to play every night but if there was a night when they may not show up tonight may be it.

Thanks man, I get it now. When the public is already on a team, and the books make it easier to take the betting community favorite...fade them because they're not about to lose mega bucks on a gimme. Got you, finally got you!

All in all, I'm gonna stick with OKC tonight...I just see too many tangible factors leaning OKC's way. Last 3 legit teams that SAC faced blew them out of the water (MEM twice, MIA, BKN...maybe N.O. now), and OKC has lost some big matchups against western contenders. I'm gonna enjoy seeing how this experiment works out! GL luck again man, good to see a few good guys posting some good info!

Trust me, I cant believe it either. It chalk up my LITTLE success (my units are still only worth $50) to research, match-ups, tailing people that know what they're doing, asking for advice, and watching a ton of games. BTW, best avatar on the forum.

More RLM the public is 60% on Utah with it opening at +4.5 now they are getting +5.0????

Is tonight the night Lakers turn it around??

Doe 1981 if your still around possibly you could explain? How can we tell what the publicis doing to cause this?

My kinda style