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Should Dallas be a bigger fav to win title?

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Posted: #1

yes i know the odds are correct at around -110 for them to win the title because Miami is -6 for game 6 and will be around the same for game 7 if they win game 6  BUT do you think those odds are where they should be? do you think Dallas is that much of a dog in those two games in miami? and thus barely a series fav??

And do you think the line will change? i think Dallas backers are going to move it a bit, the game 6 line may move to -5.5 miami i think.

Thoughts???  

 
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Posted: #2
IDK but give me the better team at plus points any day
 
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Posted: #3
I find it hard to believe that the Mavs are only -110 to win one of the next two games considering they have probably been the best, most consistent road team in the league. I know its right mathematically based on the expected lines, but damn if that isn't lower than what I think it probably should be.
 
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Posted: #4
I think the line is set appropriately for the books to get just about even money on the game.  I don't know that they had a choice but to set the Heat as a favorite this large after the extreme amount of money that came in on Miami last game that they gobbled up. 

So is it appropriate?  Depends on Wade most likely, but I'm not sure the 6 points is as appropriate as the -250 ML, because you know if that's set too low the "YOU GUYS KNOW MIAMI HAD A PRESEASON PARTY SO THEY CAN'T LOSE GAME 6" crowd will pound them.  Maybe it will move a little bit one way or the other, but I think it's pretty appropriate to appease the masses at this point.
 
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Posted: #5
I think the game 7 line will probably come down a little bit but only if game 6 is SOMEWHAT close. Miami can cover by pulling away at the end, but if they lead big wire to wire then game 7 will probably be the same as game 6.
 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by Fairweatherfan:

I think the line is set appropriately for the books to get just about even money on the game.  I don't know that they had a choice but to set the Heat as a favorite this large after the extreme amount of money that came in on Miami last game that they gobbled up. 

So is it appropriate?  Depends on Wade most likely, but I'm not sure the 6 points is as appropriate as the -250 ML, because you know if that's set too low the "YOU GUYS KNOW MIAMI HAD A PRESEASON PARTY SO THEY CAN'T LOSE GAME 6" crowd will pound them.  Maybe it will move a little bit one way or the other, but I think it's pretty appropriate to appease the masses at this point.

i agree with you, the lines are set approriately based on game to game betting and probable action..

 

 
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Posted: #7

I do remember last years finals... i had Boston to win the title at around +600 odds and i didnt hedge or anything... their odds of winning the title were around the same as the mavs this year (Boston was also up 3-2)..  Anyways, we all know the result and that broke my heart, im still a bit angry at that, fucken refs screwed boston in game 7..

 
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Posted: #8
This line is huge.  Basically even money- hard to believe really.  Dallas to get the W in game six is also making me want to toss some bucks at them. +235. 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

I do remember last years finals... i had Boston to win the title at around +600 odds and i didnt hedge or anything... their odds of winning the title were around the same as the mavs this year (Boston was also up 3-2)..  Anyways, we all know the result and that broke my heart, im still a bit angry at that, fucken refs screwed boston in game 7..

 

yeah i know what you mean

 
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Posted: #10

Dallas already won in Miami yet they are -110.
If Miami was up 3-2 going into Dallas they would -200.
Miami was almost 2-1 vs Chicago lost game 1 and then they opened Miami -110 before game 2 and the WORLD ate up Chicago at a PK and moved the line to Chicago -130. 
 
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Posted: #11
jlt dallas is not the better team....lay off the crack.  Miami's only loss at home whole playoffs came on a historic comeback so I wouldnt hold my breath it will happen again.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by dreams27:

jlt dallas is not the better team....lay off the crack.  Miami's only loss at home whole playoffs came on a historic comeback so I wouldnt hold my breath it will happen again.


It's comments like these that reaffirm my faith in the Mavs.  Honestly, people with your mindset are exactly what makes the books profitable.  The ol' "this team is so lucky, the other team keeps giving away the games" shit is so trite, even laughable.  You realize that sports are about results.  The Mavs have the best road record in the playoffs, have consistently come back in 4th quarters, and are up 3-2 in the series.  Please, indulge me.  How in fact are the Mavs in any sense of the word lucky or an inferior team?  This is what they do. 

On the flip side, the Heat have blown a late lead in all 3 of their losses.  Do you not notice this obvious trend?  The mental resolve of the Mavs is far superior, and in a matchup that is more or less equal when it comes to talent and depth, what do you think will prevail?  You, like all Heat backers, will continue chasing.  And you will fail miserably. 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by nymumich:



It's comments like these that reaffirm my faith in the Mavs.  Honestly, people with your mindset are exactly what makes the books profitable.  The ol' "this team is so lucky, the other team keeps giving away the games" shit is so trite, even laughable.  You realize that sports are about results.  The Mavs have the best road record in the playoffs, have consistently come back in 4th quarters, and are up 3-2 in the series.  Please, indulge me.  How in fact are the Mavs in any sense of the word lucky or an inferior team?  This is what they do. 

On the flip side, the Heat have blown a late lead in all 3 of their losses.  Do you not notice this obvious trend?  The mental resolve of the Mavs is far superior, and in a matchup that is more or less equal when it comes to talent and depth, what do you think will prevail?  You, like all Heat backers, will continue chasing.  And you will fail miserably. 



 
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Posted: #14
i love how you guys over analyze these lines.  just like yesterday when the spread moved 3 points and everybody jumped on miami.  now dallas is -115 to win the ring and you are scratching your heads...just like you will be scratching your heads when dallas takes this championship!
 
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Posted: #15
Lines are right where they should be.  However I see it going down to as far as -4.5 then back to -5.5.  It started -6 on my book then dropped to 5.5 in a heartbeat. 

Dallas is the better team right now, miami looks lost.  The offense looks lost.  They sometimes have real good sets, and sometimes look just awful.  The passing/playmaking of Dwade and Lebron giving their teammates easy layups is awesome...but thats what kept them in the game in Game 5.  Dallas played HORRIBLY/TIRED Defense. 

Miami's Defense in my opinion looked the same, but for once Dallas Offense showed up for all 4 quarters rather than just the 4th.  Finally a team that has great shooters actually made their shots.  And Im glad to see PEJA not playing.  Hes awful.

I hope DIRK tells his teammates to only bring 1 set of clothes.  As an athlete, game 6 is game 7. 
DAL ML.  I hope it moves but I only see it going down so I will prolly lay money today. 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by mpp30:

i love how you guys over analyze these lines.  just like yesterday when the spread moved 3 points and everybody jumped on miami.  now dallas is -115 to win the ring and you are scratching your heads...just like you will be scratching your heads when dallas takes this championship!


I was happy when the line moved.  I popped 1k on Dallas +1.5 on my book when it went that far, but went to a pickem by tipoff. 
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by mpp30:

i love how you guys over analyze these lines.  just like yesterday when the spread moved 3 points and everybody jumped on miami.  now dallas is -115 to win the ring and you are scratching your heads...just like you will be scratching your heads when dallas takes this championship!

i hope you are right, i would love for dallas to win it

 
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Posted: #18
$shot its simple... when wade isnt 100%, the heat lose.  look at their outcomes '09, '07, and '05 when he battled injuries.  Lebitch  cannot carry this team alone in this adverse spot.  the heat benck is streaky at best and have pulled shots out of their ass, did you see that bullshit chalmers half court shot?  mavs still being favored at -115 with 2 road games is spot on.  last night was the heat's season and was Lebitche's career on the line...its over!!!
 
 
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Posted: #19
Series price hasnt changed but game 6 moved from Dallas +6 to now +4.5 so people are betting a lot on game 6 but not betting Dallas to win the series..  hmmm
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