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REVENGE + PUBLIC FADE = LONG-TERM PROFITABILITY

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Posted: #26
GL bodio  Saw portland is down to 4.5 now , was wondering if it isn't a little similar to bandwagon jumping from Indiana.  Obviously, the differences are not the same, as Portland looked awful against Atlanta with new lineup changes, but I don't see it as a problem that will take weeks to adjust to.  I think NBA players mesh pretty quickly with new teams when the core isn't removed.  Although this is only game 2 or 3 with them, it probably is the last time we can get this kind of value. It still is stay away for me,  Though, it is hard to argue against your write up points.
 
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Posted: #27
GL bodio  Saw portland is down to 4.5 now , was wondering if it isn't a little similar to bandwagon jumping from Indiana.  Obviously, the differences are not the same, as Portland looked awful against Atlanta with new lineup changes, but I don't see it as a problem that will take weeks to adjust to.  I think NBA players mesh pretty quickly with new teams when the core isn't removed.  Although this is only game 2 or 3 with them, it probably is the last time we can get this kind of value. It still is stay away for me,  Though, it is hard to argue against your write up points.
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by alohac75:

Question Bodio.....I like the rockets play but at my book it's at 4.5 would that half point make a difference in this situation? I cringe when it comes to these half point situations....lol......sometimes it can work for you and or against you. 

NEVER buy points in basketball.  At least that's my moto.

It's not worth it.  At -110 odds we need to win 52.38% of the time to break even.  If you buy points, then at -120 odds you need to win 54.5% of the time just to break even....Just not worth it

 
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Posted: #29
Sorry for double post.  With you all the way on Pacers and Grizz
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:

With you on the Magic -7 tonight, bodio.

 

Nice.  GL buddy!

go magic!

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Magic and Grizz are my 2 favorite ones.

I was ALMOST on the Sixers.  A lot of 'value' on them as +2.5 point underdogs.  But, I just can't fade Dallas.  This team is stacked:  they have size, depth, and a super-star 'machine' in Dirk.  I know PHilly is on 'revenge', but that 1st game was early in the season, so as not as big of a factor.  Dallas to me is a 'NO fade' team the rest of the regular season.....  GL buddy

Timbo's -- no way am I fading the Lakers right now either.  The line is only off by about 1 point...s/b -8 Lakers based on my model, so what's the angle here?  Timbo's had a tough game against the Warriors where they had to come back from a ton of points down, so this is not a good spot for them....GL on both though!



thanks for the small writeups...i will be on both small, Magic is my favorite play tonight as well.


 
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Posted: #32

Quote Originally Posted by wii1173:

any thought on the dallas/philly game brother?

PASS PASS PASS!  Mavs are over-valued in this one from the statistical perspective.  Philly should be -1 here but they are +2.5.  Lost of 'value' on them and the 'angles' favor them too: revenge, home dog, etc...  BUT, fading Mavs as hot as they are, winning 16 of 17, is just not a smart thing to do either.  Both teams are 'cover' machines so when they play each other it's best to just PASS and watch...

 
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Posted: #33
#1: Memphis Grizzlies -1
 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by jcjcjc24:

Thanks for the write ups, with you on all (small play on Houst) with Orl being my strongest play..Knicks coming off that big win Sun night could come out flat...think Orl will win big...Nice night last night!!   GL

 

GL buddy!  Let's win some $$ tonight

 
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Posted: #35

I don't mean to bring up college ball in this forum but I am trying to get in the swing of things for college with March Madness around the corner as it's tougher to follow the kids with NHL taking up the majority of the coverage here in Canada

Do you have any thoughts about Penn State ATS and Nebraska -1.5 for tonight?

 

 
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Posted: #36
 
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Posted: #37
Good luck bro  Sorry on the Warriors tonight.
 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by VLR:

GL bodio  Saw portland is down to 4.5 now , was wondering if it isn't a little similar to bandwagon jumping from Indiana.  Obviously, the differences are not the same, as Portland looked awful against Atlanta with new lineup changes, but I don't see it as a problem that will take weeks to adjust to.  I think NBA players mesh pretty quickly with new teams when the core isn't removed.  Although this is only game 2 or 3 with them, it probably is the last time we can get this kind of value. It still is stay away for me,  Though, it is hard to argue against your write up points.

 

No 'bandwagon' jumping here  since 85%+ are on the Blazers.  I guess I would say I jumped off the Portland 'bandwagon' for this one but I will be back on it fairly soon.  With Fernandez out, this will put more pressure on Roy and Wallace.  And these guys will need a few more games to get acclimated, as well as Camby.  Houston is firing on all cylinders and are on double-revenge.  Catching 5 points here is too many.  Line should be around -3 Blazers.  In the first meeing Blazers were -3.5 favs at home.  IN the 2nd meeting Houston were -5 point favorites at home.  Now Blazers are -5 favs at home for the 3rd game?  Obviously, the public was gonna plays Portland no matter where this line opened, but -5 is too many.  Catching around 2 points of 'value', with double-revenge, and backing a hot team which is facing a team that is 'out of rhythm' according to their coach? I'll take it  :)

 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:



thanks for the small writeups...i will be on both small, Magic is my favorite play tonight as well.


GL buddy. Hope you get 'em both

 
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Posted: #40

Quote Originally Posted by phat03:

#1: Memphis Grizzlies -1

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

NEVER buy points in basketball.  At least that's my moto.

It's not worth it.  At -110 odds we need to win 52.38% of the time to break even.  If you buy points, then at -120 odds you need to win 54.5% of the time just to break even....Just not worth it

No No  brother I NEVER ever do! Either I play on it at that spread or I don't. I like the situation here as I read in your analysis of the game. I really really like houston right now and I am really angry with portland as they royaly burned me on the last play of the week for me! Terrible team they are! Hopefully houston has no problems for today...lol.......as that famous saying goes! Either way brother have a prosperous day and make lots of! Mahalo for your Kokua!
 
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Posted: #42
BODIO... any concern that the Pacers recent hiccup could be attributed to the loss of Dunleavy to a broken thumb? 


 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:

I don't mean to bring up college ball in this forum but I am trying to get in the swing of things for college with March Madness around the corner as it's tougher to follow the kids with NHL taking up the majority of the coverage here in Canada

Do you have any thoughts about Penn State ATS and Nebraska -1.5 for tonight?

 

I'd be careful with Nebraska here.  Mizzou is one of the best teams in the conference in causing turn-overs, while the Huskers are very turnover prone.  I can't back a team like that.  This one is a PASS.

Ohio St is actually one of my leans right now.  This team is just so good in all aspects of the game.  I know Penn St is on revenge and this is a huge game for them, but the line in the first meeting was like -17/-18 Ohio St at home.  With 'standard adjustments' you'd assume around -10/-11 on the road....But the line is at -6 right now.  Is Penn St really 4/5 points better than they were earlier this year?  (or is Ohio St worse?)

I'm not so sure.  To me this is Ohio St or nothing....GL

 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by Mixelpic:

Good luck bro  Sorry on the Warriors tonight.

Thanks buddy.  Go Pacers!

 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

BODIO... any concern that the Pacers recent hiccup could be attributed to the loss of Dunleavy to a broken thumb? 


Nah...Both Utah and Suns are playoff teams.  I wouldn't call those losses as 'hiccups'... 

 
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Posted: #46
GL bodio 
 
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Posted: #47

Im on the Spurs

 
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Posted: #48

Great write-up once again, Bodio

GL,  

 
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Posted: #49
Oh no, I am already locked in on the Spurs +1.5   

I will tail on the rest of em, Bodio.

Thanks for the excellent write-ups my man!!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Great write-ups. I like the Memphis game in large part because of th revenge factor and the line. It is the end of the 1st quarter in the GS - Indiana game, and it looks like you called it correctly. I will hope for a good line to bet at the half. If not, then I will let it go.

I am definitely OFF the Houston game. Portland is a better team; playing at home; and laying modest points.

Thanks for the write-ups. Keep 'em coming.

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